Hurricane Daniel (05E) in CPAC

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Cyclenall
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#61 Postby Cyclenall » Tue Jul 18, 2006 12:29 am

Hurricane Floyd wrote:Is it just me or is Daniel forming an eye?

http://vortex.plymouth.edu/sat.irW5.gif

It's just you :lol: . Just joking, I can't see any eye forming but if you can point something out then that would be fine.

EDIT: I can see it now! I didn't look closely enough the first time. Wow, that's a pin-hole eye in the making. I have looked at other IR and SAT pics and I can say there might be a eye appearing!! :D

Oh I hope not, then the NHC can just call this a hurricane.

I like that, it's because a rule is forming over time or has formed a long time ago that if the cyclone has an eye, it must be a hurricane!

Aka this thing is exploding

It's starting to get it's act together in terms of center and banding. Once it's done those tasks, it should explode and bomb. That's just what I think will happen, it may not even be true. I can't tell if Daniel is rapidly strengthening right now.

I have noticed a good spin to the cyclone and good banding thus far. The center is now gaining heavy convection and I would love a pin-hole eye to pop out. I'm not sure if that's possible at this point but whatever...

My current thoughts on this system in %:

% chance for Tropical Storm Daniel to become a:

Tropical Storm: 100%
Hurricane: 85%
Major Hurricane: 33%
Category 4 Hurricane: 4.5%
Category 5 Hurricane: 1.5%
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#62 Postby clfenwi » Tue Jul 18, 2006 12:42 am

Looks like the "chance for rapid intensification after the cyclone consolidates" is being realized... The raw ADT number from UW-CIMSS has shot up to 4.5 over the past few hours (final CI from them is currently 3.6).


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#63 Postby Cyclenall » Tue Jul 18, 2006 12:51 am

I can safetly say that Tropical Storm Daniel is undergoing rapid strengthening. I love this part of a cyclone's life. I just checked the strength of Dan and he is now at 55 Knots according to the NRL. The pressure is at 1002 mb.

More soon from me.
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#64 Postby whereverwx » Tue Jul 18, 2006 1:08 am

Yep, looks like he's really starting to get his act together.

Image
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#65 Postby Thunder44 » Tue Jul 18, 2006 2:09 am

853
WHXX01 KMIA 180637
CHGE77

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL STORM DANIEL (EP052006) ON 20060718 0600 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060718 0600 060718 1800 060719 0600 060719 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 12.2N 114.7W 12.3N 116.7W 12.3N 118.7W 12.6N 120.6W
BAMM 12.2N 114.7W 12.3N 116.9W 12.2N 119.0W 12.3N 121.2W
LBAR 12.2N 114.7W 12.2N 116.7W 12.2N 119.1W 12.2N 121.8W
SHIP 55KTS 65KTS 72KTS 77KTS
DSHP 55KTS 65KTS 72KTS 77KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060720 0600 060721 0600 060722 0600 060723 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 13.2N 122.5W 14.4N 126.5W 15.1N 131.1W 15.0N 135.9W
BAMM 12.7N 123.1W 13.2N 126.9W 13.4N 129.8W 14.6N 132.0W
LBAR 12.5N 124.1W 13.0N 128.6W 12.9N 131.8W 14.7N 132.6W
SHIP 80KTS 79KTS 71KTS 61KTS
DSHP 80KTS 79KTS 71KTS 61KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 12.2N LONCUR = 114.7W DIRCUR = 265DEG SPDCUR = 11KT
LATM12 = 12.3N LONM12 = 112.5W DIRM12 = 270DEG SPDM12 = 10KT
LATM24 = 12.3N LONM24 = 110.5W
WNDCUR = 55KT RMAXWD = 20NM WNDM12 = 40KT
CENPRS = 994MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 225NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 60NM RD34SE = 60NM RD34SW = 60NM RD34NW = 60NM

$$
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#66 Postby Thunder44 » Tue Jul 18, 2006 4:09 am

000
WTPZ45 KNHC 180833
TCDEP5
TROPICAL STORM DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052006
200 AM PDT TUE JUL 18 2006

DANIEL CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN. SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A
WELL-DEFINED SPIRAL BAND THAT WRAPS ALMOST ALL THE WAY AROUND THE
CENTER OF CIRCULATION. A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE WITH VERY
COLD CLOUD TOPS IS ALSO DEVELOPING. 0600 UTC DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS
FROM SAB...AFWA...AND TAFB ARE 45 KT...45 KT...AND 65 KT
RESPECTIVELY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET...CONSERVATIVELY...AT
55 KT. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS WELL-DEFINED OVER ALL QUADRANTS
EXCEPT THE SOUTHEAST. DANIEL IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING
THROUGH AN EXTREMELY LOW-VERTICAL WIND SHEAR-ENVIRONMENT AND OVER
MODESTLY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS OR SO.
THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS DANIEL APPROACHING MAJOR
HURRICANE STATUS IN 48 HOURS. THIS IS ABOVE THE SHIPS GUIDANCE...
WELL BELOW THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE...AND FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE LATEST
GFDL PREDICTION. WE HAVE LIMITED SKILL IN PREDICTING TROPICAL
CYCLONE INTENSITY CHANGE. IF DANIEL DEVELOPS AN EYEWALL
STRUCTURE...IT COULD STRENGTHEN MORE RAPIDLY AND BECOME MORE
INTENSE THAN SHOWN BY THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATE IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD...SLIGHTLY COOLER WATERS AND INCREASED SHEAR SHOULD CAUSE A
WEAKENING TREND TO COMMENCE.

LATEST FIXES FROM GEOSTATIONARY AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT
THE MOTION CONTINUES TOWARD THE WEST...AROUND 270/10. GLOBAL
MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF
DANIEL...BUILDING WESTWARD WITH THE TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THIS SHOULD INDUCE A CONTINUED WESTWARD TRACK FOR
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE GFS FORECASTS A WESTWARD-MOVING
MID-TROPOSPHERIC CIRCULATION BETWEEN 10N AND 25N...MOVING FROM NEAR
140W TO 145 FROM DAYS 3 TO 5 OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS FEATURE
IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE A GRADUAL RIGHTWARD BEND IN DANIEL'S TRACK
DURING THE LATER PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT
WITH THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 18/0900Z 12.2N 115.2W 55 KT
12HR VT 18/1800Z 12.2N 116.7W 65 KT
24HR VT 19/0600Z 12.2N 118.5W 75 KT
36HR VT 19/1800Z 12.2N 120.3W 85 KT
48HR VT 20/0600Z 12.5N 122.0W 95 KT
72HR VT 21/0600Z 13.0N 125.0W 95 KT
96HR VT 22/0600Z 13.5N 128.0W 90 KT
120HR VT 23/0600Z 14.5N 131.0W 80 KT

$$
FORECASTER PASCH
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#67 Postby MiamiensisWx » Tue Jul 18, 2006 10:00 am

000
WTPZ45 KNHC 181429
TCDEP5
TROPICAL STORM DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052006
800 AM PDT TUE JUL 18 2006

SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT DANIEL CONTINUES TO STEADILY INTENSIFY
AND IS VERY NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH. 1200 UTC SATELLITE BASED
INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 55 KT FROM SAB AND AFWA...65 KT FROM
TAFB...AND 63 KT FROM UW CIMSS ADT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET
AT 60 KT BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THESE ESTIMATES.

UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS WELL-DEFINED...ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTH OF THE
CYCLONE WHERE AN OUTFLOW CHANNEL IS APPARENT. ADDITIONALLY...DANIEL
WILL BE LOCATED WITHIN AN EXTREMELY LOW-VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR-ENVIRONMENT AND OVER WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES FOR THE
NEXT 72 HOURS. THE ENVIRONMENT APPEARS CONDUCIVE FOR CONTINUED
STRENGTHENING...PERHAPS EVEN RAPID STRENGTHENING. SINCE
FORECASTING RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS VERY DIFFICULT...THE OFFICIAL
INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS A STEADY MARCH TO MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS
IN 48 HOURS. WHILE THE FSU SUPER ENSEMBLE CONTINUES TO SHOW
ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING...IT IS DIFFICULT TO DEVIATE FAR FROM THE
TRADITIONALLY GOOD PERFORMING SHIPS MODEL. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
ESSENTIALLY SPLITS THE DIFFERENCE AT 100 KT. IF DANIEL DEVELOPS AN
EYE...IT COULD STRENGTHEN MORE RAPIDLY THAN SHOWN BY THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST. LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD... SLIGHTLY COOLER WATERS AND
INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE A WEAKENING TREND TO
COMMENCE.

DANIEL CONTINUES ALMOST DUE WESTWARD OR 270/10. THE OVERALL FORECAST
PHILOSOPHY IS UNCHANGED. GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST A STRONG MID-LEVEL
RIDGE WILL REMAIN NORTH OF DANIEL OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS WHICH
SHOULD KEEP THE CYCLONE ON A GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK. THEREAFTER...
THE MODELS SHOW A WEAKNESS DEVELOPING IN THE RIDGE ALLOWING A
GRADUAL TURN NORTHWARD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY
UNCHANGED THROUGH 48 HOURS AND IS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY NORTH AT DAYS 3
THROUGH 5 TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST TRENDS IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 18/1500Z 12.2N 116.8W 60 KT
12HR VT 19/0000Z 12.2N 118.2W 70 KT
24HR VT 19/1200Z 12.3N 120.0W 80 KT
36HR VT 20/0000Z 12.5N 121.7W 90 KT
48HR VT 20/1200Z 12.8N 123.3W 100 KT
72HR VT 21/1200Z 13.6N 126.5W 100 KT
96HR VT 22/1200Z 14.5N 130.0W 90 KT
120HR VT 23/1200Z 15.5N 133.0W 75 KT

$$
FORECASTER RHOME/STEWART


000
WTPZ25 KNHC 181429
TCMEP5
TROPICAL STORM DANIEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052006
1500 UTC TUE JUL 18 2006

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.2N 116.8W AT 18/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 90SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.2N 116.8W AT 18/1500Z
AT 18/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.2N 116.3W

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 12.2N 118.2W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 75NE 60SE 60SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 12.3N 120.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 75SE 75SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 12.5N 121.7W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 12.8N 123.3W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 13.6N 126.5W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 14.5N 130.0W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 15.5N 133.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.2N 116.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER RHOME/STEWART


Intensity raised to 60KT.
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#68 Postby HurricaneHunter914 » Tue Jul 18, 2006 10:29 am

I'm not suprised, on SAT this looks almost like a hurricane and its only been three days ever since this became a TD.
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#69 Postby Cyclenall » Tue Jul 18, 2006 1:04 pm

How come every time a tropical cyclone in the East Pacific undergoes rapid deepening for like 3-4 hours, it just stops after? In the Atlantic, hurricanes continue much longer like Wilma and Rita.

Daniel should have been 60 Knots last night. I agree though he is still at 60 Knots currently. More later from me.
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#70 Postby Thunder44 » Tue Jul 18, 2006 1:46 pm

Looks like a hurricane at 5pm.

087
WHXX01 KMIA 181837
CHGE77

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

HURRICANE DANIEL (EP052006) ON 20060718 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060718 1800 060719 0600 060719 1800 060720 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 12.1N 117.1W 12.2N 118.8W 12.3N 120.6W 12.9N 122.4W
BAMM 12.1N 117.1W 12.0N 119.1W 11.8N 121.2W 12.0N 123.0W
LBAR 12.1N 117.1W 12.1N 119.1W 12.2N 121.5W 12.8N 123.9W
SHIP 65KTS 74KTS 79KTS 83KTS
DSHP 65KTS 74KTS 79KTS 83KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060720 1800 060721 1800 060722 1800 060723 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 13.6N 124.2W 14.8N 128.1W 15.7N 132.6W 16.3N 136.5W
BAMM 12.3N 124.6W 13.4N 127.0W 15.7N 129.9W 18.2N 134.2W
LBAR 13.2N 126.5W 13.7N 131.2W 13.8N 135.2W 14.9N 136.7W
SHIP 84KTS 82KTS 72KTS 61KTS
DSHP 84KTS 82KTS 72KTS 61KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 12.1N LONCUR = 117.1W DIRCUR = 265DEG SPDCUR = 11KT
LATM12 = 12.3N LONM12 = 114.9W DIRM12 = 268DEG SPDM12 = 11KT
LATM24 = 12.3N LONM24 = 112.7W
WNDCUR = 65KT RMAXWD = 20NM WNDM12 = 55KT
CENPRS = 987MB OUTPRS = 1008MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 75NM RD34SE = 75NM RD34SW = 75NM RD34NW = 75NM

$$
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#71 Postby HurricaneHunter914 » Tue Jul 18, 2006 1:55 pm

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/epac/avn-l.jpg

It sure looks like a huricane too.
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#72 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jul 18, 2006 3:30 pm

825
WTPZ45 KNHC 182026
TCDEP5
HURRICANE DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052006
200 PM PDT TUE JUL 18 2006

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES DANIEL CONTINUES TO STEADILY
STRENGTHEN AND A BANDING TYPE EYE FEATURE APPEARS TO BE FORMING.
ACCORDINGLY...DANIEL IS UPGRADED TO A 65 KT HURRICANE BASED ON
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM SAB AND TAFB...AND A 70 KT
ESTIMATE FROM FROM UW CIMSS ADT.

UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW REMAINS GOOD...ESPECIALLY TO THE
NORTH...VERTICAL SHEAR IS VERY LOW...AND DANIEL IS LOCATED OVER
WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. ALL OF THESE POSITIVE FACTORS POINT
TO CONTINUED STRENGTHENING...PERHAPS EVEN RAPID STRENGTHENING.
SINCE THE LATER IS VERY DIFFICULT TO ANTICIPATE...THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST MAINTAINS A STEADY INTENSIFICATION RATE TAKING DANIEL TO
MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS IN 36 TO 48 HOURS. INTERESTINGLY...THE FSU
SUPER ENSEMBLE HAS BACKED OFF OF ITS PREVIOUS AGGRESSIVE FORECASTS
AND IS NOW IN VERY CLOSE AGREEMENT TO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.
SHOULD DANIEL GO ON AND FORM AN EYE LATER TODAY...THE CYCLONE COULD
STRENGTHEN MORE RAPIDLY THAN SHOWN BY THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATE
IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...SLIGHTLY COOLER WATERS AND INCREASING
VERTICAL SHEAR ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE A WEAKENING TREND TO COMMENCE.

DANIEL APPEARS TO BE MOVING JUST SOUTH OF DUE WEST OR 265/11. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY SOUTH DURING THE FIRST
24 HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS TREND. THEREAFTER...THE OVERALL
FORECAST PHILOSOPHY AND THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS UNCHANGED. GLOBAL
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE NORTH OF DANIEL
BUILDING WESTWARD WITH THE CYCLONE THROUGH 48 HOURS THEN GRADUALLY
WEAKENING THEREAFTER. THIS SHOULD KEEP DANIEL ON A GENERAL
WESTWARD TRACK THROUGH DAY 2 FOLLOWED A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST THEREAFTER. NHC TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS TIGHTLY
CLUSTERED THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE FORECAST. ONLY THE UKMET KEEPS THE
CYCLONE MOVING WESTWARD.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 18/2100Z 11.9N 117.6W 65 KT
12HR VT 19/0600Z 11.9N 119.1W 75 KT
24HR VT 19/1800Z 12.0N 121.0W 85 KT
36HR VT 20/0600Z 12.3N 122.7W 95 KT
48HR VT 20/1800Z 12.8N 124.4W 100 KT
72HR VT 21/1800Z 13.7N 127.8W 100 KT
96HR VT 22/1800Z 14.5N 131.0W 85 KT
120HR VT 23/1800Z 16.0N 135.0W 70 KT

$$
FORECASTER RHOME/STEWART

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#73 Postby JonathanBelles » Tue Jul 18, 2006 3:32 pm

early today!!
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#74 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jul 18, 2006 3:33 pm

fact789 wrote:early today!!


What do you mean?
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#75 Postby bombarderoazul » Tue Jul 18, 2006 4:09 pm

No doubt Daniel will become a beast.
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#76 Postby Cyclenall » Tue Jul 18, 2006 7:44 pm

Daniel is doing the same thing that Bud did IIRC. Daniel looks like he is going through a ERC when really he is NOT. Is he forming a eye or just tricking us again?
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#77 Postby Cyclenall » Tue Jul 18, 2006 8:25 pm

Daniel is now at 70 Knots according to the NRL. The pressure is at 984 mb currently.
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#78 Postby AnnularCane » Tue Jul 18, 2006 8:56 pm

Steve Lyons doesn't seem to realize Daniel is a hurricane.
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#79 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jul 18, 2006 9:30 pm

255
WTPZ45 KNHC 190227
TCDEP5
HURRICANE DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052006
800 PM PDT TUE JUL 18 2006

THE HURRICANE IS CONTINUING ITS INTENSIFICATION WITH TIGHTLY-WOUND
BANDS OF CONVECTION AROUND THE CENTER AND AN IMPRESSIVE OUTFLOW
PATTERN. AFTER A BURST OF THUNDERSTORMS A FEW HOURS AGO...A SMALL
EYE IS BECOMING MORE EVIDENT IN THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 70 KT IN BETWEEN SUBJECTIVE DVORAK
CLASSIFICATIONS OF 65 KT FROM SAB/TAFB AND ADT ESTIMATES FROM CIMSS
OF 72 KT.

THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE UNANIMOUS IN FORECASTING A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE NEAR DANIEL PROVIDING A LOW-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. IN ADDITION...THE SSTS ARE WARM AND SLIGHTLY
ABOVE AVERAGE. ALL SIGNS POINT TO AT LEAST A STEADY INTENSIFICATION
FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO BEFORE SSTS BEGIN TO COOL. THEREAFTER...
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS OF STEADY/SLIGHTLY DECREASINGLY SSTS AND
LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR MIGHT FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN
ANNULAR-TYPE HURRICANE. THIS PATTERN COULD ALLOW DANIEL TO STAY
STRONGER FOR A LONGER AMOUNT OF TIME. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE GFDL AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE WHICH KEEP
DANIEL AS A STRONG HURRICANE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

DANIEL IS MOVING BASICALLY DUE WEST...ABOUT 270/10. LITTLE CHANGE
WAS MADE TO THE FORECAST TRACK IN THE FIRST FEW DAYS AS MODEL
GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED. THEREAFTER...THE GFS AND ITS
ENSEMBLES DIVERGE A LITTLE BY MOVING DANIEL ON A MORE
WEST-NORTHWESTERLY TRACK IN RESPONSE TO A DEVELOPING UPPER TROUGH
ALONG ABOUT 130W. THE UKMET/NOGAPS/ECMWF CLUSTER SHOWS LESS OF A
TROUGH...KEEPING THE HURRICANE ON A FARTHER SOUTH TRACK THAN THE
GFS/GFS ENSEMBLES. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL BE NUDGED A LITTLE
SOUTH OF PREVIOUS...ALONG THE LINES OF THE ECMWF AND CLOSE TO THE
MODEL CONSENSUS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 19/0300Z 11.9N 118.4W 70 KT
12HR VT 19/1200Z 12.0N 119.9W 80 KT
24HR VT 20/0000Z 12.2N 121.5W 90 KT
36HR VT 20/1200Z 12.6N 123.3W 100 KT
48HR VT 21/0000Z 13.0N 125.0W 100 KT
72HR VT 22/0000Z 13.7N 128.5W 100 KT
96HR VT 23/0000Z 14.5N 132.0W 85 KT
120HR VT 24/0000Z 15.5N 135.5W 70 KT

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA



70 kts.Still forecast to be a major hurricane.
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Cyclenall
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#80 Postby Cyclenall » Tue Jul 18, 2006 9:50 pm

Steve Lyons doesn't seem to realize Daniel is a hurricane.

Who is that?

Here is what really got my attention:

NHC wrote:THEREAFTER...
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS OF STEADY/SLIGHTLY DECREASINGLY SSTS AND
LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR MIGHT FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN
ANNULAR-TYPE HURRICANE. THIS PATTERN COULD ALLOW DANIEL TO STAY
STRONGER FOR A LONGER AMOUNT OF TIME.

This is the first time I have ever seen the NHC talk about annular hurricanes in their discussion. I didn't know there was a way to predict annular tropical cyclones either. I hope he does become one since it's a rare event and they tend to last longer :) . I love the eye's in annular cyclones as well, so big.
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