Tropical Storm Beryl

[Aric Dunn]

About 42mph

18: 20:29:00; 33.2°N 73.1°W; PA: 1056ft; D-Val: -66 ft; Wnd: SSW (196°) @ 36mph (Max: 39mph); T: 71F; D: 71F; Radar Alt: 1027ft
19: 20:29:30; 33.2°N 73.1°W; PA: 1060ft; D-Val: -59 ft; Wnd: SSW (194°) @ 45mph (Max: 45mph); T: 70F; D: 70F; Radar Alt: 1037ft
20: 20:30:00; 33.2°N 73.1°W; PA: 1060ft; D-Val: -49 ft; Wnd: SSW (199°) @ 43mph (Max: 44mph); T: 68F; D: 68F; Radar Alt: 1047ft

[Air Force Met]

39kt ... its a storm ...

What is the reduction being used here?

Probably .8-.85

[WxGuy1]

You are over rationalizing the post. Cloud structure and appearance have long been an indicator of a systems possible strength. Part of the Dvorak is pattern and structure. Stop bashing someone just because your avatar says pro met. If you can not "estimate" a system based on appearance, perhaps you should do more research. This is an opinions allowed amature/pro page.

It is, and you can guestimate based on the visible satellite image. If you don't track cloud tags across frames to determine the actual speed of the clouds, then being able to differentiate a strong TD from a weak/marginal TS is difficult. Everyone's allowed opinions, and insinuating that I think more highly of my own is ludicris. Including more specific evidence adds credibility to your 'opinion'.

Saying that 1/2 of the posts in this thread are one-liners that don't contribute to the quality of thread is not degrading either... Who wants to weed through tens or hundreds of posts? ST2K mods have noted several tiems so far that the board is aiming for quality over quantity. There HAVE been many good posts in the past 20 pages, but there have also been many that don't contribute to the topic. We all may be anxious (either nervous or excited), but is it bad to remind people to ask themselves if their post will add to the thread before posting? Three posts in a row confirming that the system is still a depression -- is it necessary?

[cpdaman]

this storm looks like its moving a lot faster than 5 mph and the north east quad appears to have a loose attatchment to the stationary front

k

[Brent]

Still a TD at 5pm.

[Windsurfer_NYC]

it remains TD 2, 35 MPH in 5pm advisory

[Aric Dunn]

yep still a TD

[storms in NC]

I would like to know something please. The front that is comeing down. Now will it cut it off and it would go more west or would it turn east into the front?

[Air Force Met]

About 42mph

18: 20:29:00; 33.2°N 73.1°W; PA: 1056ft; D-Val: -66 ft; Wnd: SSW (196°) @ 36mph (Max: 39mph); T: 71F; D: 71F; Radar Alt: 1027ft
19: 20:29:30; 33.2°N 73.1°W; PA: 1060ft; D-Val: -59 ft; Wnd: SSW (194°) @ 45mph (Max: 45mph); T: 70F; D: 70F; Radar Alt: 1037ft
20: 20:30:00; 33.2°N 73.1°W; PA: 1060ft; D-Val: -49 ft; Wnd: SSW (199°) @ 43mph (Max: 44mph); T: 68F; D: 68F; Radar Alt: 1047ft

With the reduction that's not 42 mph. That's 42 mph at flight level. With a .85 reduction...it's 33 knots or 38 MPH.

[Aric Dunn]

Vortex Data Message
Storm Name: CYCLONE (02L)
Mission Number: 01
Flight ID: AF308
Observation Number: 17
Time: 20:23:30Z
Latitude: 33.3°N
Longitude: 73.3°W
Location: 187 mi SE of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina
Minimum height at NA mb NA m
Est. Surface Winds Observed: 35 mph
Distance and bearing from center to max surface wind: 16 mi SW (220°)
Maximum flight level wind: NW (315°) @ 30 mph
Distance and bearing from center to max flight level wind: 14 mi SW (220°)
Sea level pressure: EXTRAP 1007 mb
Max flight level temperature outside the eye: 72°F at 705 feet
Max flight level temperature inside the eye: 72°F at 1047 feet
Dewpoint temperature inside the eye: 72°F
Eye character: NA
Eye shape: NA
Eye diameter: NA
#VALUE!
Navigation / Met Accuracy: 0.03 / 5 nm
MAX FL WIND 36 KT NW QUAD 19:16:40 Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 1500 FT

[cheezyWXguy]

thats cheap...they keep it as a TD just cuz of 1 or 2 mph?

[Aric Dunn]

OK minobs well over TS force at flight level



Storm Name: CYCLONE (02L)
Mission Number: 01
Flight ID: AF308
Flt Data Number: 32
Recon Position: 205 mi SE of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina

01: 20:30:30; 33.2°N 73°W; PA: 1060ft; D-Val: -39 ft; Wnd: SSW (204°) @ 40mph (Max: 41mph); T: 68F; D: 68F; Radar Alt: 1056ft
02: 20:31:00; 33.2°N 73°W; PA: 1050ft; D-Val: -33 ft; Wnd: SSW (198°) @ 41mph (Max: 43mph); T: 70F; D: 70F; Radar Alt: 1056ft
03: 20:31:30; 33.2°N 73°W; PA: 1066ft; D-Val: -26 ft; Wnd: SSW (201°) @ 38mph (Max: 39mph); T: 71F; D: 71F; Radar Alt: 1076ft
04: 20:32:00; 33.1°N 73°W; PA: 1060ft; D-Val: -16 ft; Wnd: SSW (202°) @ 39mph (Max: 39mph); T: 69F; D: 69F; Radar Alt: 1079ft
05: 20:32:30; 33.1°N 73°W; PA: 1060ft; D-Val: -13 ft; Wnd: SSW (198°) @ 39mph (Max: 39mph); T: 68F; D: 68F; Radar Alt: 1083ft
06: 20:33:00; 33.1°N 72.9°W; PA: 1056ft; D-Val: -7 ft; Wnd: SSW (199°) @ 38mph (Max: 38mph); T: 71F; D: 71F; Radar Alt: 1089ft
07: 20:33:30; 33.1°N 72.9°W; PA: 1056ft; D-Val: 0ft; Wnd: SSW (200°) @ 37mph (Max: 37mph); T: 72F; D: 72F; Radar Alt: 1096ft
08: 20:34:00; 33.1°N 72.9°W; PA: 1056ft; D-Val: 7ft; Wnd: SSW (198°) @ 38mph (Max: 39mph); T: 71F; D: 71F; Radar Alt: 1099ft
09: 20:34:30; 33.1°N 72.9°W; PA: 1060ft; D-Val: 10ft; Wnd: SSW (199°) @ 37mph (Max: 38mph); T: 72F; D: 72F; Radar Alt: 1106ft
10: 20:35:00; 33°N 72.9°W; PA: 1063ft; D-Val: 13ft; Wnd: SSW (200°) @ 37mph (Max: 38mph); T: 71F; D: 71F; Radar Alt: 1112ft
11: 20:35:30; 33°N 72.9°W; PA: 1053ft; D-Val: 20ft; Wnd: SSW (199°) @ 38mph (Max: 39mph); T: 71F; D: 71F; Radar Alt: 1109ft
12: 20:36:00; 33°N 72.8°W; PA: 1060ft; D-Val: 23ft; Wnd: SSW (193°) @ 41mph (Max: 43mph); T: 70F; D: 70F; Radar Alt: 1119ft
13: 20:36:30; 33°N 72.8°W; PA: 1060ft; D-Val: 26ft; Wnd: S (191°) @ 44mph (Max: 45mph); T: 69F; D: 69F; Radar Alt: 1122ft
14: 20:37:00; 33°N 72.8°W; PA: 1053ft; D-Val: 30ft; Wnd: SSW (192°) @ 47mph (Max: 48mph); T: 70F; D: 70F; Radar Alt: 1122ft
15: 20:37:30; 33°N 72.8°W; PA: 1056ft; D-Val: 33ft; Wnd: S (191°) @ 48mph (Max: 48mph); T: 68F; D: 68F; Radar Alt: 1129ft
16: 20:38:00; 32.9°N 72.8°W; PA: 1060ft; D-Val: 36ft; Wnd: S (191°) @ 48mph (Max: 48mph); T: 68F; D: 68F; Radar Alt: 1132ft
17: 20:38:30; 32.9°N 72.7°W; PA: 1056ft; D-Val: 36ft; Wnd: SSW (193°) @ 50mph (Max: 51mph); T: 69F; D: 69F; Radar Alt: 1132ft
18: 20:39:00; 32.9°N 72.7°W; PA: 1060ft; D-Val: 39ft; Wnd: SSW (193°) @ 50mph (Max: 51mph); T: 69F; D: 69F; Radar Alt: 1135ft
19: 20:39:30; 32.9°N 72.7°W; PA: 1056ft; D-Val: 43ft; Wnd: S (191°) @ 52mph (Max: 52mph); T: 69F; D: 69F; Radar Alt: 1135ft
20: 20:40:00; 32.9°N 72.7°W; PA: 1056ft; D-Val: 43ft; Wnd: SSW (192°) @ 54mph (Max: 54mph); T: 69F; D: 69F; Radar Alt: 1138ft

[Brent]

47 kt from recon, so I guess it is a storm.

[senorpepr]

Links for 02L are on the S2K Worldwide Tropical Update page

http://tropicalupdates.storm2k.org/
http://tropicalupdate.nhcwx.com/atl.htm

[Aric Dunn]

54 MPH at 1138ft

[Air Force Met]

:wall:

47 kt from recon, so I guess it is a storm.

Yeap...now it will be a storm. Question is have they written the advisory yet or not...?

[Aric Dunn]

they may make it a TS will see

[Air Force Met]

they may make it a TS will see

They will with those obs...but remember...you MUST reduce flilght level winds to the sfc accordingly.

[Aric Dunn]

nope nevermind.. that advisory did not have the recent data FROM THE PLANE see the disscusion says something about the new data

[skysummit]

They should've waited a while before releasing the 5pm. They did it before and with winds so close to, and now at and above TS strength, you think they would've held off a bit.