TS Beryl Recon Reports

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StormsAhead
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#121 Postby StormsAhead » Tue Jul 18, 2006 3:13 pm

URNT11 KNHC 182010
97779 20034 30326 74100 02100 31015 22228 /0013
43210
RMK AF308 0102A CYCLONE OB 16

Surface: 1013mb; wind NW at 10 knots
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#122 Postby StormsAhead » Tue Jul 18, 2006 3:13 pm

SXXX50 KNHC 182010
AF308 0102A CYCLONE HDOB 29 KNHC
2000. 3246N 07408W 00173 0006 316 013 230 230 013 00190 0000000000
2001 3245N 07408W 00168 0007 311 012 230 228 012 00186 0000000000
2001. 3243N 07408W 00212 0009 302 013 226 226 013 00232 0000000000
2002 3242N 07408W 00215 0010 302 014 226 226 015 00237 0000000000
2002. 3240N 07408W 00218 0011 307 014 226 226 015 00240 0000000000
2003 3238N 07408W 00213 0011 305 015 226 226 015 00235 0000000000
2003. 3237N 07407W 00216 0011 303 015 226 226 015 00238 0000000000
2004 3235N 07407W 00214 0012 301 015 226 226 015 00237 0000000000
2004. 3234N 07406W 00219 0012 295 014 226 226 015 00243 0000000000
2005 3235N 07405W 00211 0011 285 012 226 226 013 00233 0000000000
2005. 3236N 07403W 00216 0010 283 012 226 226 012 00237 0000000000
2006 3238N 07402W 00214 0009 281 013 226 226 013 00234 0000000000
2006. 3239N 07401W 00217 0009 283 013 226 226 014 00236 0000000000
2007 3240N 07359W 00215 0008 285 012 226 226 013 00234 0000000000
2007. 3241N 07358W 00214 0007 285 011 226 226 012 00233 0000000000
2008 3242N 07357W 00216 0007 282 013 226 226 013 00234 0000000000
2008. 3243N 07355W 00214 0007 284 012 226 226 012 00232 0000000000
2009 3244N 07354W 00216 0006 284 012 226 226 012 00233 0000000000
2009. 3246N 07353W 00215 0005 287 012 228 226 012 00231 0000000000
2010 3247N 07351W 00215 0004 287 012 226 226 012 00231 0000000000

Turning to the northeast again
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#123 Postby WindRunner » Tue Jul 18, 2006 3:16 pm

Image
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#124 Postby StormsAhead » Tue Jul 18, 2006 3:23 pm

SXXX50 KNHC 182020
AF308 0102A CYCLONE HDOB 30 KNHC
2010. 3248N 07350W 00215 0004 292 012 226 226 012 00230 0000000000
2011 3249N 07349W 00217 0004 297 013 226 226 013 00231 0000000000
2011. 3250N 07347W 00214 0003 296 014 226 226 014 00228 0000000000
2012 3251N 07346W 00216 0002 292 014 226 226 015 00229 0000000000
2012. 3252N 07345W 00215 0001 289 015 226 226 016 00228 0000000000
2013 3253N 07343W 00216 0001 286 017 226 226 017 00227 0000000000
2013. 3255N 07342W 00214 0000 288 017 226 226 017 00226 0000000000
2014 3256N 07341W 00216 5001 283 017 226 226 018 00226 0000000000
2014. 3257N 07339W 00216 5002 285 019 226 226 020 00225 0000000000
2015 3258N 07338W 00216 5003 289 019 226 226 019 00224 0000000000
2015. 3259N 07337W 00216 5005 287 019 226 224 019 00222 0000000000
2016 3300N 07335W 00214 5006 292 019 226 226 020 00219 0000000000
2016. 3301N 07334W 00216 5008 293 019 224 224 020 00219 0000000000
2017 3303N 07333W 00215 5009 296 019 226 226 019 00217 0000000000
2017. 3304N 07332W 00213 5011 300 020 226 226 021 00213 0000000000
2018 3305N 07331W 00217 5012 299 020 224 224 021 00216 0000000000
2018. 3306N 07329W 00215 5014 298 022 224 224 023 00211 0000000000
2019 3308N 07328W 00215 5017 302 022 224 224 022 00209 0000000000
2019. 3309N 07327W 00215 5019 308 023 222 222 024 00207 0000000000
2020 3310N 07326W 00215 5022 318 025 222 222 026 00204 0000000000
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#125 Postby WindRunner » Tue Jul 18, 2006 3:27 pm

Sorry about the map getting a touch messy . . . but the erractic flight around the center doesn't help . . .

Should be hitting the center on the next set:
Image
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#126 Postby StormsAhead » Tue Jul 18, 2006 3:32 pm

SXXX50 KNHC 182030
AF308 0102A CYCLONE HDOB 31 KNHC
2020. 3311N 07325W 00267 5023 318 023 220 220 024 00254 0000000000
2021 3312N 07324W 00322 5022 310 021 218 218 022 00311 0000000000
2021. 3314N 07323W 00321 5024 310 020 218 218 021 00308 0000000000
2022 3315N 07322W 00322 5027 301 018 220 220 019 00306 0000000000
2022. 3316N 07321W 00323 5029 301 016 220 220 017 00304 0000000000
2023 3318N 07320W 00323 5033 297 014 220 220 014 00302 0000000000
2023. 3319N 07319W 00323 5037 297 011 220 220 013 00297 0000000000
2024 3320N 07318W 00321 5040 110 001 224 224 008 00292 0000000000
2024. 3322N 07317W 00322 5037 144 014 224 224 017 00296 0000000000
2025 3322N 07316W 00326 5034 161 020 220 220 020 00302 0000000000
2025. 3321N 07314W 00322 5033 175 019 220 220 019 00300 0000000000
2026 3320N 07313W 00322 5031 184 018 220 220 019 00302 0000000000
2026. 3319N 07312W 00323 5030 189 017 220 220 018 00304 0000000000
2027 3318N 07311W 00323 5029 196 017 220 220 017 00305 0000000000
2027. 3317N 07309W 00322 5028 202 020 220 220 024 00305 0000000000
2028 3316N 07308W 00323 5026 200 027 220 220 028 00308 0000000000
2028. 3315N 07307W 00322 5023 202 028 216 216 029 00310 0000000000
2029 3314N 07306W 00322 5020 196 031 216 216 034 00313 0000000000
2029. 3313N 07305W 00323 5018 194 039 212 212 039 00316 0000000000
2030 3312N 07303W 00323 5015 199 037 200 200 038 00319 0000000000
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#127 Postby WindRunner » Tue Jul 18, 2006 3:36 pm

That's a TS wind, and just to the east of the center - trace the line backwards a little from the last point to see the location.

Image
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Matt-hurricanewatcher

#128 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Tue Jul 18, 2006 3:39 pm

If this is at .9 it would be 35 knots. Tropical storm!!!
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#129 Postby StormsAhead » Tue Jul 18, 2006 3:42 pm

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:If this is at .9 it would be 35 knots. Tropical storm!!!


It's not .9 because this isn't the eyewall of a hurricane and they're not at 700mb. It should be .8
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#130 Postby StormsAhead » Tue Jul 18, 2006 3:43 pm

SXXX50 KNHC 182040
AF308 0102A CYCLONE HDOB 32 KNHC
2030. 3311N 07302W 00323 5012 204 035 198 198 036 00322 0000000000
2031 3310N 07301W 00320 5010 198 036 212 212 037 00322 0000000000
2031. 3309N 07300W 00325 5008 201 033 218 218 034 00328 0000000000
2032 3308N 07259W 00323 5005 202 034 208 208 034 00329 0000000000
2032. 3307N 07258W 00323 5004 198 034 202 202 034 00330 0000000000
2033 3306N 07256W 00322 5002 199 033 216 216 033 00332 0000000000
2033. 3305N 07255W 00322 0000 200 032 220 220 032 00334 0000000000
2034 3304N 07254W 00322 0002 198 033 218 218 034 00335 0000000000
2034. 3303N 07253W 00323 0003 199 032 220 220 033 00337 0000000000
2035 3302N 07252W 00324 0004 200 032 218 218 033 00339 0000000000
2035. 3301N 07251W 00321 0006 199 033 216 216 034 00338 0000000000
2036 3300N 07250W 00323 0007 193 036 212 212 037 00341 0000000000
2036. 3259N 07248W 00323 0008 191 038 208 208 039 00342 0000000000
2037 3258N 07247W 00321 0009 192 041 210 210 042 00342 0000000000
2037. 3257N 07246W 00322 0010 191 042 198 198 042 00344 0000000000
2038 3256N 07245W 00323 0011 191 042 202 202 042 00345 0000000000
2038. 3255N 07244W 00322 0011 193 043 204 204 044 00345 0000000000
2039 3254N 07243W 00323 0012 193 043 206 206 044 00346 0000000000
2039. 3253N 07242W 00322 0013 191 045 206 206 045 00346 0000000000
2040 3252N 07241W 00322 0013 192 047 206 206 047 00347 0000000000

Beryl for sure.
Last edited by StormsAhead on Tue Jul 18, 2006 3:45 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#131 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Tue Jul 18, 2006 3:45 pm

47 knots? wow :eek:
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#132 Postby tgenius » Tue Jul 18, 2006 3:45 pm

Would that call for special announcment at that speed?
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#133 Postby Grease Monkey » Tue Jul 18, 2006 3:46 pm

So was the 5pm advisory called too early to determine whether it is truly a TS or not?
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#134 Postby StormsAhead » Tue Jul 18, 2006 3:46 pm

URNT12 KNHC 182040
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 18/20:23:30Z
B. 33 deg 20 min N
073 deg 18 min W
C. NA mb NA m
D. 30 kt
E. 220 deg 014 nm
F. 315 deg 026 kt
G. 220 deg 012 nm
H. EXTRAP 1007 mb
I. 22 C/ 215 m
J. 22 C/ 319 m
K. 22 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1234 / 1
O. 0.03 / 5 nm
P. AF308 0102A CYCLONE OB 17
MAX FL WIND 36 KT NW QUAD 19:16:40 Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 1500 FT.
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#135 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Tue Jul 18, 2006 3:46 pm

Thats a .8 reduce 37.8 knots at the surface.
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#136 Postby WindRunner » Tue Jul 18, 2006 3:47 pm

And the winds are just on the increase as they fly into the SE quad too, don't forget. This isn't even the strongest part of the storm.

Image
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#137 Postby WindRunner » Tue Jul 18, 2006 3:48 pm

Grease Monkey wrote:So was the 5pm advisory called too early to determine whether it is truly a TS or not?


Yes, expect to see an update product or an update to the advisory shortly, as this is most certainly not a TD as the 5pm advisory says.
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#138 Postby Noles2006 » Tue Jul 18, 2006 3:48 pm

This is TS Beryl [unofficial... but it should be official at 8:00 p.m. EST, if not earlier].
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#139 Postby drezee » Tue Jul 18, 2006 3:52 pm

RECONNAISSANCE DATA AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THE DEPRESSION
HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED. RECENT DATA FROM THE
AIRCRAFT THAT CAME IN AFTER SOME OF THE FORECAST PRODUCTS WERE
ISSUED INDICATE 1000 FT FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 46 KT IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT AND A PRESSURE OF 1007 MB. THIS CORRESPONDS
TO AT LEAST 35 KT SURFACE WINDS...AND A TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE...
OR TCU PRODUCT... WILL ISSUED SHORTLY INDICATING THAT THE CYCLONE IS
NOW TROPICAL STORM BERYL.
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#140 Postby Eyewall » Tue Jul 18, 2006 3:52 pm

NHC definitely spoke too soon
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