Hurricane Daniel (05E) in CPAC

[cheezyWXguy]

nvm

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Annular is when a hurricane losses all its rain bands becoming just the eyewall. Which these storms normally develop when the hurricane becomes very intense normally cat4 or 5. The cloud tops are not as cold normally...For exp look at Isable 2003 or Katrina.

[cheezyWXguy]

I just googled that before you posted matt, but thanks for the info anyway. But ya Isabel is a good example

[Derek Ortt]

Katrina was not annular, even though the IR gave it that appearance.

There were large bands spraling well away from the center, and I addressed it at Monterrey

[cheezyWXguy]

Ya I wasnt sure about katrina but the fact that isabel was annular explains how it was a cat 5 for 30 hours the 1st time

[cycloneye]

Wow,what a view of this soon to be a major cane.

[Coredesat]

Certainly does look impressive. Looks like it's well on its way to becoming a major hurricane.

[HurricaneHunter914]

This looks way more than 80 mph to me. Here are my numbers:

Tropical Depression - 100%
Tropical Storm - 100%
Hurricane - 100%
Major Hurricane - 55%
Cat-5 - 2%
Disappating in the Next 24 hrs - .1%

[Cyclenall]

This is much stronger then 70 Knots IMO. Daniel looks like Hurricane Camille without an eye.

If a pin-hole eye just popped out...

[HurricaneBill]

Hurricane Luis in 1995 was annular at one point.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Still waiting for that eye to form. Then its going to go boom!!!

[Cyclenall]

This is such a weird hurricane. I can never tell what he is doing. Right now there looks like there are 2 eye's and it's possible both aren't eye's at all. Right where the eye should be is this eye like feature that isn't a eye IMO but just a break in the hurricane. That break has the bands to the left and the center to the right. For some reason, I feel that could become a eye but I have no clue what's going on! Then there is this weak pin-hole eye forming South-West of the other "eye" that really isn't a eye that could fizzle like last time.

Bottom Line: I don't know what's occurring in Daniel.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Holy that is a pin hole eye developing. This thing could go to cat3 before 8am...Not going to say 2am because the nhc needs time to look at it.

[Cyclenall]

Holy that is a pin hole eye developing. This thing could go to cat3 before 8am...Not going to say 2am because the nhc needs time to look at it.

Hurricane Daniel tried to form 2 pin-hole eye's last time I checked. Both times they eye's "fizzled". I have no idea what's going on here.

What are your thoughts on that center that is clear? Is it an eye or something else? It's bugging me!

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Ok after looking at more data that small dot is not a eye...But a cold cloud top. The eye is a banded eye which is that large cloud like whole developing. Which is east of the dot cloud. 85h data supports this.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

That clear area is a banding eye slowly wraping the cold convection around it. It will likely get more organized. Then real strengthen is likely after that.

[Cyclenall]

Ok after looking at more data that small dot is not a eye...But a cold cloud top. The eye is a banded eye which is that large cloud like whole developing. Which is east of the dot cloud. 85h data supports this.

So that part of the hurricane that is sticking out the most when you look at it, that's the eye? I knew that one dot wasn't a eye since it's not in the correct place anyways.



If that is the real eye, it looks like a CAT3 right now. The only thing left is for it to form a ring of deep convection around that eye make it get better organized. Looks great!!

[whereverwx]

He has excellent outflow.

[Cyclenall]

For the 2nd-3rd time now Daniel is going through a rapid strengthening phase. He is now at 80 Knots and 975 mb. I'm not sure how long he will stay in the rapid deepening mode but I have seen East Pacific storms stop after 3-4 hours often based off of Bud and Carlotta and now Daniel.

EDIT: This is a true monster. Just look at the thing!!!!! He looks like a strong category 4 hurricane if I didn't know any better! Annular looking too without a big eye. This thing is not at 80 Knots at all IMO.

My guess on the strength: 105 Knots at least.

Oh, and if this was in the Atlantic I would really start to lose sleep...

[clfenwi]

WTPZ45 KNHC 190835
TCDEP5
HURRICANE DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052006
200 AM PDT WED JUL 19 2006

AN EARLIER SSMIS OVERPASS SUGGESTED THAT DANIEL WAS DEVELOPING A
BANDING EYE FEATURE. ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY NOW DEPICTS A WARM
SPOT...INDICATING POSSIBLE PIN HOLE EYE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE CORE
CONVECTION. DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITIES ARE 77 KT FROM ALL AGENCIES
AND THE ODT IS 85 KT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 80 KT.
THE GFDL AND A MAJORITY OF THE GLOBAL MODELS MAINTAIN AN UPPER
ANTICYCLONE OVER DANIEL FOR THE NEXT 2 DAYS. AFTERWARD...THE UPPER
HIGH IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY DRIFT NORTHEASTWARD OF THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE'S TRACK CREATING A LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. THIS CHANGE
IN THE ATMOSPHERE ALOFT AND COOLER SSTS SHOULD INITIATE A SLOW
WEAKENING TREND. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
PACKAGE AND IS BASED ON A BLEND OF SHIPS...GFDL...AND THE FSU
SUPERENSEMBLE.

INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 265/8. SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OF THE
PREVIOUS TRACK AND A BIT SLOWER. A DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO
THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD INFLUENCE A GENERALLY WESTWARD TRACK
DURING THE NEXT 3 DAYS. THEREAFTER...A MAJORITY OF THE MODELS
SUGGEST A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE WILL CAUSE DANIEL TO TRACK
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASED ON A MODEL CONSENSUS AND IS CLOSE TO
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY FORECAST TRACK.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 19/0900Z 11.8N 119.0W 80 KT
12HR VT 19/1800Z 11.8N 120.3W 90 KT
24HR VT 20/0600Z 12.1N 121.9W 100 KT
36HR VT 20/1800Z 12.5N 123.6W 100 KT
48HR VT 21/0600Z 12.9N 125.5W 100 KT
72HR VT 22/0600Z 13.6N 129.3W 90 KT
96HR VT 23/0600Z 14.5N 133.0W 80 KT
120HR VT 24/0600Z 15.5N 136.0W 70 KT

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH