Tropical Storm Beryl

Aric Dunn · #561 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Tue Jul 18, 2006 11:49 pm

well thats hard to dispute .....AJC3... except every plot i get there is just more westerly motion then 350... cant figure it out .. my plots are correct using GRlevel 3 i have used it numerous times and have been very acurate and am almost always in line with the NHC why this time its continues to be so different i dont know maybe you can figure it out

#562 Postby **brunota2003** » Tue Jul 18, 2006 11:51 pm

Not here to defend anyone...just stating what I see...I must say that looking at the Night-time Visible, it does appear to be heading more towards the NW than the N, you can also see this on the radar out of Morehead City, NC NWS...

benny · #563 Postby **benny** » Tue Jul 18, 2006 11:52 pm

the 00z gfs brings whatever of left of this system over the ne usa in about 36-48 hours...!!!

stormtruth · #564 Postby **stormtruth** » Tue Jul 18, 2006 11:52 pm

brunota2003 wrote:Not here to defend anyone...just stating what I see...I must say that looking at the Night-time Visible, it does appear to be heading more towards the NW than the N, you can also see this on the radar out of Morehead City, NC NWS...

I agree. It looks like it has seperated from the bulk of the convection and headed NW with a little new convection developing on the NW side.

Aric Dunn · #565 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Tue Jul 18, 2006 11:53 pm

I agree stormvoider but thats not very accurate.. and i can do that and i do see what your saying .. radar is different.. im doing something worng .. im missing something

i do a number of different techniques that have always worked well but for some reason now its not trying find my error...

Aric Dunn · #566 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Tue Jul 18, 2006 11:54 pm

by the way AJC3 did you get my PM

#567 Postby **brunota2003** » Tue Jul 18, 2006 11:56 pm

stormtruth wrote:
brunota2003 wrote:Not here to defend anyone...just stating what I see...I must say that looking at the Night-time Visible, it does appear to be heading more towards the NW than the N, you can also see this on the radar out of Morehead City, NC NWS...

I agree. It looks like it has seperated from the bulk of the convection and headed NW with a little new convection developing on the NW side.

And so you guys know what I used: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html Of course that is just IMO as to what I see...and as stormtruth mentioned, you can see a little blow-up of convection around the NW side...now its late and I'm going to bed...night everyone!!!

Aric Dunn · #568 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Wed Jul 19, 2006 12:03 am

Conditions at 41001 as of
(11:50 pm EDT on 07/18/2006)
0350 GMT on 07/19/2006: Unit of Measure: EnglishMetric Time Zone: Station Local TimeGreenwich Mean Time [GMT]British Summer Time [GMT+1]Eastern Greenland [GMT-1]Azores [GMT-2]Western Greenland [GMT-3]Atlantic Standard [GMT-4]US/Eastern StandardUS/Central StandardUS/Mountain StandardUS/Pacific StandardAlaska Standard [GMT-9]Hawaii-Aleutian Standard [GMT-10]Samoa Standard [GMT-11]International Date Line West [GMT-12]Western European [GMT+0]Central European [GMT+1]Eastern European [GMT+2]Moscow [GMT+3]USSR Zone 3 [GMT+4]USSR Zone 4 [GMT+5]USSR Zone 5 [GMT+6]USSR Zone 6 [GMT+7]China Coast [GMT+8]Japan Standard [GMT+9]Guam Standard [GMT+10]GMT+11International Date Line East [GMT+12]
Click on the graph icon in the table below to see a time series plot of the last five days of that observation.

Wind Direction (WDIR): SE ( 130 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 27.2 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 35.0 kts
Wave Height (WVHT): 12.1 ft
Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 8 sec
Average Period (APD): 6.6 sec
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.92 in
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.04 in ( Falling )
Air Temperature (ATMP): 76.5 °F
Water Temperature (WTMP): 78.1 °F

Aric Dunn · #569 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Wed Jul 19, 2006 12:04 am

i guess that was a little messing here is the link
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41001

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #570 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Wed Jul 19, 2006 12:04 am

Lookie here guys!

IN FACT...IT
SEEMS THAT THE CYCLONE IS SOMEWHAT ATTACHED TO A FRONTAL ZONE.

This was in the discussion...Wxman57 said the system yesterday did not have a front. So who's more tropical now. This should be Christ.

Aric Dunn · #571 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Wed Jul 19, 2006 12:15 am

ok good night all ... well see what happens in the morning...

whereverwx · #572 Postby **whereverwx** » Wed Jul 19, 2006 12:39 am

*yawn* Here's the latest from the long range...

Website · #573 Postby **Brent** » Wed Jul 19, 2006 12:40 am

What a boring storm.

#574 Postby **NDG** » Wed Jul 19, 2006 12:41 am

Too bad Beryl is getting affected by the dry air over the Carolinas along w/light SW shear otherwise she would had been blowing up by now, lets see as she is approaching the gulf stream's mid 80s deg temps will make her gain more strength or not.
By the way, I think she has been moving on a NNW course pretty much, more northerly than northwesterly.

http://i20.photobucket.com/albums/b245/ ... rylSST.jpg

*edited by staff to make image a link - was too large

whereverwx · #575 Postby **whereverwx** » Wed Jul 19, 2006 12:41 am

Brent wrote:What a boring storm.

Yeah, I think she needs counseling. She's looking depressed.

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #576 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Wed Jul 19, 2006 12:45 am

Look at the hurricane in the Eastern Pacific. Thats about ready to bomb!

Grease Monkey · #577 Postby **Grease Monkey** » Wed Jul 19, 2006 12:46 am

I'm suprised Beryl wasn't downgraded to a TD yet.

whereverwx · #578 Postby **whereverwx** » Wed Jul 19, 2006 12:58 am

She looks just like Alberto when he was making landfall.

Grease Monkey · #579 Postby **Grease Monkey** » Wed Jul 19, 2006 1:05 am

Very true. Forget what I said. This thing could be a strong TS already. :cheesy:

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #580 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Wed Jul 19, 2006 1:09 am

The inner core of the system is more defined then it was earlier. But dry air has gotten into the mid levels in destroyed the convection. I would still expect that the surface winds have not weaken alot.

Tropical Storm Beryl

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