12Z & 18Z NAM - Possible GOM Development?

[ronjon]

Seems like the NAM might be taking the place of the Canadian GEM for development of spurious LLCs. Both the 12Z and 18Z models actually develop the tropical wave south of PR when it reaches the GOM in 3 days. Is the model on to something or is it simply out to lunch?


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[SouthFloridawx]

That's interesting.

[SCMedic]

Good pick up on that model. I've posted a couple of threads like these, and someone always has a smart comment about why it won't materialize or why I'm looking at the wrong thing. I'm a weather lover, just like the rest of you, I know I'm not educated formally, and I'm trying to learn.

I appreciate all the people on this board that explain things to the rest of us!

[Extremeweatherguy]

I am pretty sure I will be on the east coast of Fl during that time so I will need to watch this carefully. It looks like it is picking up on the wave currently in the eastern Caribbean.

ALSO: That latest loop seems to show two GOM systems. One low heading toward south Texas and the other "main" one heading toward the FL Panhandle/west coast.

[Dean4Storms]

Thanks for the heads up ronjon, I hadn't looked at the NAM as of late.

We could use the rain here in the Panhandle though, its not rained more than .23" at my house in the last 3 months.

[george_r_1961]

One storm at a time please..thanks

[BreinLa]

One storm at a time please..thanks

and No Storms in the gulf please

[tailgater]

This is the EURO at 144 hrs. out
http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... uv850_z500
!Wind%20850%20and%20mslp!144!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2006071812!!chart.gif

and 168 hrs. out.
http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... uv850_z500
!Wind%20850%20and%20mslp!168!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2006071812!!chart.gif

This Models doesn't usally spit out any junk so I'll be watching this area closely.

[boca]

Tailgater I can't pull up it says info is missing.

[tailgater]

Tailgater I can't pull up it says info is missing.

My bad, try this site.
http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... uv850_z500
!Wind%20850%20and%20mslp!168!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2006071812!!/

[skysummit]

I wonder if this is what it's trying to develop....

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/rb-l.jpg


*edited by staff to make the image a link - too large

[skysummit]

The 00z didn't follow through with it. It still shows the moisture in the gulf at 84 hours, but no development with this run.

[Extremeweatherguy]

The 00z didn't follow through with it. It still shows the moisture in the gulf at 84 hours, but no development with this run.

The NAM does show a little swirling complex moving toward TX/LA though. Looks interesting.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[HurricaneHunter914]

I wonder if this is what it's trying to develop....

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/rb-l.jpg

I was thinking the same thing. I'm not sure if this is part of the ULL, but it appears to have some small banding features.



*edited by staff to make quoted image a link - too large

[hicksta]

Someone wana post the model run by pics cause i cant see them. or wahts the fsu site

[dizzyfish]

FSU site http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/

Checking the models from the above site the gfs shows what looks to be like a split of the energy from Beryl spit out along the east coast of FL then up the state where it makes a hard right (east). The CMC shows a chunk of energy along the west coast of FL moving towards the panhandle.
Of course, I may be reading these wrong! What do you all see?

Dotty

[ronjon]

The 06Z NAM continues yesterdays development of a GOM cyclone. This shifts it slightly westard into the central GOM by Saturday. Tampa Bay NWS Disc mentioned the DGEX model also showing development in the eastern GOM this weekend.

LONG TERM (FRI NIGHT-TUE)...GFS/UKMET/ECMWF SUITES ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH OVERALL SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURES DURING THIS TIME
FRAME...WHILE THE DGEX DEPICTS POSSIBLE TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT OVER
THE EASTERN GULF ON SATURDAY. THE DGEXS LOOKS A BIT OVERDONE AT THE
MOMENT...AND GIVEN IT IS AN OUTLIER COMPARED TO THE OTHER MODELS
WILL IGNORE FOR NOW.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[caneman]

The 06Z NAM continues yesterdays development of a GOM cyclone. This shifts it slightly westard into the central GOM by Saturday. Tampa Bay NWS Disc mentioned the DGEX model also showing development in the eastern GOM this weekend.

LONG TERM (FRI NIGHT-TUE)...GFS/UKMET/ECMWF SUITES ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH OVERALL SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURES DURING THIS TIME
FRAME...WHILE THE DGEX DEPICTS POSSIBLE TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT OVER
THE EASTERN GULF ON SATURDAY. THE DGEXS LOOKS A BIT OVERDONE AT THE
MOMENT...AND GIVEN IT IS AN OUTLIER COMPARED TO THE OTHER MODELS
WILL IGNORE FOR NOW.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

CMC and GFS showing low pressure in the 72-96 time frame for East Gulf nothing deep. We'll have to watch and see if a player takes shape. Nothing too worthy at this point though. Lets see if we get some consistancy for a change.

[JBP]

Nothing in the gulf for the next 10 days please. Heading out of Mobile to Cozumel on Saturday. After Aug 1st will be just fine, Thanks

[caneman]

I have no earthly idea how something will spin up with a ULL spinning bewtween Jamaica and Cuba unless it spins up in SE Gulf. Wonder if the blob off the tip of Florida will be the player. Or could be combination of what is in Gulf now kick started by area in Carib and energy South of Florida. We'll see.