Wave Near 16N 58 W Obsevations noted

[beachbum_al]

This morning there were two waves that looked impressive on the satellite. This being one of them. I guess it is a wait and see what happens but isn't there a good bit of dry air in the carribean at the moment?

[Coredesat]

There is, but it isn't quite as dry as it was last week:



The driest air is in the SW Caribbean.

[Ivanhater]

This wave did blow up over night

[HUC]

No wind shift here in Guadeloupe(always SE )barometric pressure rising 1016mb;the weather is clearing after some moderate rains during the night;it seems this system is not moving toward the WNW,but appears to take a more northely component at this time

[Jim Hughes]

Current steering flow (notice the "gap" between the 2 highs)...with Bermuda right in the gap...also the steering flow over the Island is SE to NW, then veers back E to W south of PR...if the system starts out further north and passes north of PR, it would be an "up and out" scenario at a snail's pace, with possibly a stall south of Bermuda (notice the weak steering flow between the 2 highs)...If the system starts further south and passes south of PR, the next opportunity to "escape" is much further west.

Thanks for this post rockyman.

Last time around, approximately 27-30 days ago, it was close but no cigars. This time around we "have" a storm in the exact same area. We have better variables this time.

So nobody thinks atmospheric patterns repeat within the time frames that I have previosuly talked about?


Jim

[x-y-no]

So nobody thinks atmospheric patterns repeat within the time frames that I have previosuly talked about?

I, for one, have no problem with the idea of repeating atmospheric patterns - after all that's what we all mean when we talk about the mean ridge/trough pattern setting up a certain way for the season.

Where I have difficulty with your ideas is when it comes to the space weather connections you hypothesize. I don't reject the idea outright, I just haven't really seen the persuasive correlation you say is there, nor can I think of a plausible mechanism for how tropical weather is directly influenced to any significant degree.

[Jim Hughes]

So nobody thinks atmospheric patterns repeat within the time frames that I have previosuly talked about?

I, for one, have no problem with the idea of repeating atmospheric patterns - after all that's what we all mean when we talk about the mean ridge/trough pattern setting up a certain way for the season.

Where I have difficulty with your ideas is when it comes to the space weather connections you hypothesize. I don't reject the idea outright, I just haven't really seen the persuasive correlation you say is there, nor can I think of a plausible mechanism for how tropical weather is directly influenced to any significant degree.

Weather/climate are waves in the atmosphere. Some are more favorable then others. Space weather seems to influence this.

I have ran across more research papers since last summer which somewhat bolster some of my points . Did you happend to see the one I gave to Senorpepper last month? It dealt with geomagnetic activity and ATL hurricane activity.

I also have come across some others. One deals with the summer time influence but it deals with the Pacific. I believe it depends upon QBO etc..

I think you would agree that the Pacifc can influence the ATL activity.

[Jim Hughes]

Here is the paper I was referring to about geomagnetic activity and how it seems to influence certain types of Atlantic Hurricane activity.

"Hurricane intensity changes associated with geomagnetic variations"


http://garnet.acns.fsu.edu/~jelsner/PDF ... ov2001.pdf

[gatorcane]

lets see which way this wave tracks over the next couple of days, looks like NW to me..

[cycloneye]

lets see which way this wave tracks over the next couple of days, looks like NW to me..

This is an old thread from June 17.Go to the first post of thread.

[gatorcane]

lets see which way this wave tracks over the next couple of days, looks like NW to me..

This is an old thread from June 17.Go to the first post of thread.

duh, I was wondering why I didn't see anything at those coordinates...lol