12Z & 18Z NAM - Possible GOM Development?

Eyewall · #21 Postby **Eyewall** » Wed Jul 19, 2006 8:06 am

I hate to say it but the NAM is almost never correct...
it seems to turn every thunderstorm into a hurricane :roll:

#22 Postby **Stormcenter** » Wed Jul 19, 2006 8:28 am

Eyewall wrote:I hate to say it but the NAM is almost never correct...
it seems to turn every thunderstorm into a hurricane

Why would you hate to say it? Anyway, none of the models are ever 100% correct so don't be so hard on the NAM. Who knows it may be on to something this time around,

#23 Postby **skysummit** » Wed Jul 19, 2006 8:45 am

I know the NAM forms a lot of phantom storms, but sometimes it's right...especially when there's consistency. The NAM and Canadian were the first models to pick up on Alberto, and the NAM also picked up on Beryl before any of the others. I know it's not the best choice when it comes to the tropics, but this year, I'm giving it a little more credit than previous years.

Eyewall · #24 Postby **Eyewall** » Wed Jul 19, 2006 8:50 am

well of course it was the first to pick up on them...it picks up on all of them..
dont get exited until more models pick up on it or something actually happens

#25 Postby **skysummit** » Wed Jul 19, 2006 8:51 am

Eyewall wrote:well of course it was the first to pick up on them...it picks up on all of them..
dont get exited until more models pick up on it or something actually happens

Believe me, I'm not excited...just stating the obvious.

caneman · #26 Postby **caneman** » Wed Jul 19, 2006 8:55 am

skysummit wrote:
Eyewall wrote:well of course it was the first to pick up on them...it picks up on all of them..
dont get exited until more models pick up on it or something actually happens

Believe me, I'm not excited...just stating the obvious.

I agree. If it has any consistancy this year, I'll be more apt to pay attention.

Swimdude · #27 Postby **Swimdude** » Wed Jul 19, 2006 8:58 am

Can the GOM wait for 5 days until I return to Houston from London?

Please?

Someone dump some ice cubes in the GOM for me. Thanks!

:cheesy:

Stormavoider · #28 Postby **Stormavoider** » Wed Jul 19, 2006 9:21 am

caneman wrote:I have no earthly idea how something will spin up with a ULL spinning bewtween Jamaica and Cuba unless it spins up in SE Gulf. Wonder if the blob off the tip of Florida will be the player. Or could be combination of what is in Gulf now kick started by area in Carib and energy South of Florida. We'll see.

We may need to watch this blob off the tip of Florida.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

GulfBreezer · #29 Postby **GulfBreezer** » Wed Jul 19, 2006 9:22 am

Swimdude wrote:Can the GOM wait for 5 days until I return to Houston from London?

Please?

Someone dump some ice cubes in the GOM for me. Thanks!

I hear ya........maybe we could all of us Gulf Coasters and stand on the beach and BLOW!!!!! Big fans maybe??

#30 Postby **Stormcenter** » Wed Jul 19, 2006 9:39 am

Maybe this is what the NAM is seeing.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-avn.html

HouTXmetro · #31 Postby **HouTXmetro** » Wed Jul 19, 2006 9:50 am

Stormcenter wrote:Maybe this is what the NAM is seeing.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-avn.html

WTH did that come from? good outflow.

Extremeweatherguy · #32 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Wed Jul 19, 2006 10:50 am

here's the 6Z NAM loop: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

and here's the 12Z NAM loop: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

hicksta · #33 Postby **hicksta** » Wed Jul 19, 2006 12:28 pm

is it still showing it, it wont let me run those for some odd reason.

HouTXmetro · #34 Postby **HouTXmetro** » Wed Jul 19, 2006 2:09 pm

Is the current GOM blob associated with an upper low? Should the convection die with nightfall?

12Z & 18Z NAM - Possible GOM Development?

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