Hurricane Daniel (05E) in CPAC

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cycloneye
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#101 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jul 19, 2006 9:51 am

932
WTPZ45 KNHC 191450
TCDEP5
HURRICANE DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052006
800 AM PDT WED JUL 19 2006

DANIEL CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN AND EXHIBIT EXCELLENT
OUTFLOW IN ALL QUADRANTS. A BANDING TYPE EYE HAS RECENTLY BECOME
EVIDENT IN CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. LATEST SUBJECTIVE
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE A CONSENSUS 77 KT FROM ALL AGENCIES
AND THE CIMSS ADT INTENSITY ESTIMATE HAS CREPT UP TO 80 KT DURING
THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS. BECAUSE THE EYE FEATURE HAS BECOME
BETTER DEFINED DURING THE PAST HOUR OR SO...THE INITIAL INTENSITY
HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 85 KT...A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE 1200 UTC
SUBJECTIVE ESTIMATES.

IT APPEARS THAT THE SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF DUE WEST MOTION HAS ENDED
AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 270/7. THIS IS A BIT
SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS TRACK. A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE TO THE NORTH
OF THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN A GENERAL WEST TO
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK DURING THE NEXT 3 DAYS. THEREAFTER...A
WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO SLOW THE SYSTEM AND IMPART
A GRADUAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TURN. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE
TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS BUT IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY.

WITH EXCELLENT OUTFLOW AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...DANIEL
IS FORECAST TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE SHIPS MODEL BUT
IS CLOSE TO THE GFDL INTENSITY FORECAST. AFTER 48 HOURS...THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER SLIGHTLY COOLER WATERS WHICH
SHOULD START A SLOW WEAKENING TEND.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 19/1500Z 11.9N 119.6W 85 KT
12HR VT 20/0000Z 12.0N 120.7W 95 KT
24HR VT 20/1200Z 12.4N 122.3W 105 KT
36HR VT 21/0000Z 12.8N 123.9W 105 KT
48HR VT 21/1200Z 13.2N 125.8W 100 KT
72HR VT 22/1200Z 14.0N 129.5W 85 KT
96HR VT 23/1200Z 14.8N 133.0W 70 KT
120HR VT 24/1200Z 16.0N 136.0W 60 KT

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/STEWART


Continues to intensify,now at 85kts.
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#102 Postby HurricaneHunter914 » Wed Jul 19, 2006 10:54 am

Expected to be a 120 - 125 mph hurricane in the next 24 hrs.
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#103 Postby gatorcane » Wed Jul 19, 2006 11:13 am

wow hurricane Daniel is really wrapping up... :eek:
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#104 Postby bombarderoazul » Wed Jul 19, 2006 12:42 pm

Wow! How strong can he go?
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#105 Postby AnnularCane » Wed Jul 19, 2006 12:44 pm

He's so round and beautiful... He's perfect.
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#106 Postby WindRunner » Wed Jul 19, 2006 12:53 pm

Well, we need a picture on this page. He does look pretty nice right now.

Image
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#107 Postby gatorcane » Wed Jul 19, 2006 12:55 pm

looks like the EPAC is going to crank out yet another, based on the latest TWO...

Rack another one up for the EPAC
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#108 Postby Cyclenall » Wed Jul 19, 2006 12:56 pm

I think that I was sort of correct last night in terms of what Daniel eye's were doing. Hurricane Daniel looks very good and is well on his way to major status. When will he form a eye? I lost count of the number of eye's Daniel has tried to form already!! :lol:
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#109 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Jul 19, 2006 12:57 pm

This thing looks like it wants to become a monster but hasn't got the organization...
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#110 Postby HurricaneHunter914 » Wed Jul 19, 2006 1:00 pm

Oh he's got the organization he just needs the eye.
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#111 Postby cheezyWXguy » Wed Jul 19, 2006 1:01 pm

looks like hes got both
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#112 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jul 19, 2006 1:01 pm

HurricaneHunter914 wrote:Oh he's got the organization he just needs the eye.


The eye is there.It's a small eye right now going thru an ERC.
Last edited by cycloneye on Wed Jul 19, 2006 1:01 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#113 Postby gatorcane » Wed Jul 19, 2006 1:01 pm

I'm honestly more interested in whats going on in the EPAC than Beryl....

I have lost total interest in Beryl....
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#114 Postby AnnularCane » Wed Jul 19, 2006 1:04 pm

He's just sleepy and having a hard time opening his eye this morning. :wink:

Well, it's still morning over there.
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#115 Postby Cyclenall » Wed Jul 19, 2006 1:05 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:This thing looks like it wants to become a monster but hasn't got the organization...

I know what you mean, but it isn't the organization that is the problem, it's something else. For some reason these storms can't get a stable core/eye and then bomb into a major hurricane right away. It's having trouble getting a stable eye and it looks like Daniel is trying once again right now to get one.

The eye is there.It's a small eye right now going an ERC.

It's forming an eye right now or going through an ERC but it looked like he was last evening!

More later from me.
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#116 Postby HurricaneHunter914 » Wed Jul 19, 2006 1:06 pm

gatorcane wrote:I'm honestly more interested in whats going on in the EPAC than Beryl....

I have lost total interest in Beryl....


If you were living in New jersey, you wouldn't have lost interest in Beryl.
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#117 Postby gatorcane » Wed Jul 19, 2006 1:07 pm

HurricaneHunter914 wrote:
gatorcane wrote:I'm honestly more interested in whats going on in the EPAC than Beryl....

I have lost total interest in Beryl....


If you were living in New jersey, you wouldn't have lost interest in Beryl.


Beryl doesn't even pack the punch a heavy round of summer-time thunderstorms give us in Florida ....

now if it were a CAT 1+ approaching Jersey I would be concerned....

It's a fish storm IMHO.
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#118 Postby Cyclenall » Wed Jul 19, 2006 1:10 pm

gatorcane wrote:I'm honestly more interested in whats going on in the EPAC than Beryl....

I have lost total interest in Beryl....

Same with me, I know much more about Daniel and is tracking him much closer then Beryl. My interest in Beryl is quite low but for Daniel it's sky high. Epac is very active right now but once the Atlantic heats up (major 'canes), then hopefully I will be tracking them closely once again.

He's just sleepy and having a hard time opening his eye this morning.

Well, it's still morning over there.

:lol: X6
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#119 Postby HurricaneHunter914 » Wed Jul 19, 2006 1:12 pm

Nobody lost interest in Bret when he was just a 40 mph TS.
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#120 Postby Cyclenall » Wed Jul 19, 2006 1:17 pm

Hurricane Daniel is now forming a new eye and is going through an ERC just like cycloneye said. The old eye before it wasn't really to good looking so hopefully this one will seal the deal. Did anyone follow Daniel very late last night? He was going crazy! I have over 10 pics of him if anyone needs them.
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