Hurricane Daniel (05E) in CPAC

[AnnularCane]

I think the eye is coming! Either that or another attempt.

[Cyclenall]

I think the eye is coming! Either that or another attempt.

I was just about to say the exact same thing. Hopefully he can finally get it right and make a nice eye. I have a feeling that he is going to look amazing in a few hours. Once that large pops out, I'm going to save every image possible.

Everyone, go check out Daniel right now.

Link: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t6/sloop-vis.html

[whereverwx]

Wow! Looking good!

[cycloneye]

Wow! Looking good!

This is the kind of classic hurricane we are are here for.Tracking this is very good especially if it's a big fish like Daniel is without bothering anyone.

[wxmann_91]

How beautiful. Will be interesting to see what happens after ERC, but that's a classic cane.

[cycloneye]

761
WTPZ45 KNHC 192048
TCDEP5
HURRICANE DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052006
200 PM PDT WED JUL 19 2006

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A VERY SMALL PINHOLE EYE
SURROUNDED BY A MUCH LARGER CONCENTRIC EYEWALL. DESPITE THE
APPEARANCE IN VISIBLE IMAGERY...DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES REMAIN UNCHANGED AT 77 KT FROM ALL AGENCIES. RAW
CIMSS ADT INTENSITY ESTIMATES SINCE 1800 UTC HAVE BEEN MUCH
HIGHER...AROUND T5.5 OR ABOUT 100 KT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
WILL REMAIN AT 85 KT...A BLEND OF THE SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE
ESTIMATES.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 275/7. THE FORECAST TRACK
REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED AS THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN
SOUTH OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A GENERAL WEST TO
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK DURING THE NEXT 3 DAYS. THEREAFTER...A
WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO SLOW THE SYSTEM AND IMPART
A GRADUAL NORTHWESTWARD TURN. MODELS HAVE CONTINUE TO SHOW A
SLOWER MOTION AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE SLOWER
AND TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK.

DANIEL CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT EXCELLENT OUTFLOW IN ALL QUADRANTS. THE
SMALLER INNER EYEWALL WILL LIKELY COLLAPSE WITH THE LARGER EYE
CLEARING OUT AND BECOMING THE DOMINANT FEATURE. ONCE THIS OCCURS
ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS ANTICIPATED. THEREFORE...THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE GUIDANCE AND BRINGS DANIEL TO
A MAJOR HURRICANE WITHIN 24 HOURS. LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER SLIGHTLY COOLER WATERS WHICH
SHOULD START A SLOW WEAKENING TEND.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 19/2100Z 12.0N 120.4W 85 KT
12HR VT 20/0600Z 12.1N 121.5W 95 KT
24HR VT 20/1800Z 12.5N 122.9W 105 KT
36HR VT 21/0600Z 12.9N 124.5W 105 KT
48HR VT 21/1800Z 13.4N 126.3W 95 KT
72HR VT 22/1800Z 14.5N 130.0W 80 KT
96HR VT 23/1800Z 15.5N 133.0W 65 KT
120HR VT 24/1800Z 17.0N 136.0W 55 KT

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/STEWART

[Cyclenall]

I knew they would hold the strength of the system at 85 Knots (NRL again). Let me just say that is dead wrong IMO. I'm shocked they would have the nerve to do this. Who think's they are playing with us?

This looks like a category 4 hurricane right now but I'd say it's at 100 Knots due to the eye not finished clearing. Why the NHC kept the strength at 85 Knots, I may never know...

[Cyclenall]

Hurricane Daniel now looks like Hurricane Katrina. If that eye clears up, then Daniel will look nearly the same as Katrina. Who agrees?

I still can't beileve the NHC set the strength on this storm at 85 Knots! It's too powerful right now to be a category 2 storm.

[curtadams]

Hurricane Daniel now looks like Hurricane Katrina. If that eye clears up, then Daniel will look nearly the same as Katrina. Who agrees?

I still can't beileve the NHC set the strength on this storm at 85 Knots! It's too powerful right now to be a category 2 storm.

An objective, scientific evaluation of how it looks yields 85 Knots. http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/adt/odt8.html

[Cyclenall]

Hurricane Daniel now looks like Hurricane Katrina. If that eye clears up, then Daniel will look nearly the same as Katrina. Who agrees?

I still can't believe the NHC set the strength on this storm at 85 Knots! It's too powerful right now to be a category 2 storm.

An objective, scientific evaluation of how it looks yields 85 Knots. http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/adt/odt8.html

Yes, but you can't ignore how the cyclone looks. Maybe once the eye clears the strength will shoot up big time. Another thing, did the NHC just base the strength on that one evaluation? Odd.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

105 knots I will say...

[Cyclenall]

Check out that pin-hole eye right in the middle. Too bad it will collapse:

THE
SMALLER INNER EYEWALL WILL LIKELY COLLAPSE WITH THE LARGER EYE
CLEARING OUT AND BECOMING THE DOMINANT FEATURE.

This is very true for Daniel currently:

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A VERY SMALL PINHOLE EYE
SURROUNDED BY A MUCH LARGER CONCENTRIC EYEWALL.

[curtadams]

Yes, but you can't ignore how the cyclone looks. Maybe once the eye clears the strength will shoot up big time. Another thing, did the NHC just base the strength on that one evaluation? Odd.

No, they mention several different Dvoraks, which ranged from 77 to 100 knots. I have to admit that it's going through a very obvious ERC and that suggests at least category 3. I'll wager Dvorak underestimates storms during an ERC since the inner eye can be obscured.

[Cyclenall]

No, they mention several different Dvoraks, which ranged from 77 to 100 knots.

They should have "picked" the 100 Knot one. It may not be the current real strength but it may prevent a huge jump in strength later on when the ERC is done. It would also look like rapid strengthening.

I have to admit that it's going through a very obvious ERC and that suggests at least category 3. I'll wager Dvorak underestimates storms during an ERC since the inner eye can be obscured.

Yes.

Daniel is showing the pin-hole eye much better right now then ever before. Now, I can't tell what is exactly occurring right now in Daniel. The cyclone now has to choose between collapsing the pin-hole eye or backing off of forming a bigger eye and killing the pin-hole. The 1st option appears likely and the NHC agrees. I have never seen #2 take place where the tropical cyclone backs off the killing of the pin-hole eye.

[bombarderoazul]

I can not believe they keep Daniel at 85 knots.

[Cyclenall]

I can not believe they keep Daniel at 85 knots.

I know what you mean, it's near insane but they must have a reason for this.

[cheezyWXguy]

steve lyons on the tropical update on TWC just called it an annual hurricane

[SWFLA_CANE]

I think he said annular.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

When that large eye comes out in if it losses the banding it wil be a Annual hurricane. Normally they are upper cat4s or cat5s. I would not be suprized if this was 105 to 110 knots right now.

[AnnularCane]

He probably meant Daniel might become annular in the future. I don't think he's there yet.