GOM system is getting the look

[HouTXmetro]

that would more than likely head towards texas!

Just curious....what is the reasoning behind this?

Well, as much as the nam/wrf likes to overdue systems, they have the right idea on path wise. There is gonna be another trof split it looks like coming down from the ohio valley this weekend. Also, if this stays weaker then the low level flow would push this towards our area. I will try and post some maps of this in a bit.

Don't forget about the front moving through Dallas on Fri/Saturday. Wouldn't that create a SW to NE flow ahead of the front and push any potential system to the N/NE?

[hicksta]

The nam had a system out 160 hours if im correct. This isnt the system its showing.

[HouTXmetro]

The nam had a system out 160 hours if im correct. This isnt the system its showing.

Joe B did mention something about development IN the Gom a day ago associated with the Thunderstorm complex that moved into the Gulf.

[stormcloud]

Pressue across the Gulf is very high and today's tendency indicates increasing pressue not decreasing. Persistence is the key here.

[rockyman]

Upper level divergence has a "bulls-eye" right over this area:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8dvg.html

There's a little low-level vorticity...I'll be watching this map over the next 24 hours:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8vor4.html

[mvtrucking]

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42001

Closest buoy/station I could find to the convection. Station is reporting a pressure fall, however this appears to be a daily occurance. Need to watch and see if it continues at such a rapid decline

fwbbreeze

-2.8 mb fall in pressure in the last couple of hours. Yesterday afternoon was similar although later in the day. Guess we will see where it goes later this evening?

[HouTXmetro]

convection is looking less impressive

[White Cap]

What site are you looking at Hou?

[HouTXmetro]

What site are you looking at Hou?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-avn.html

[Stormcenter]

convection is looking less impressive

I don't think it has so far been what you would call "impressive looking" but it has been expanding.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-vis.html

[White Cap]

Maybe that swirl in the eastern Carribbean is worth watching too.

[caneman]

Buoy near system reporting SW winds at

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42003

[deltadog03]

well, im thinking most of the energy will come from the carribbean.

[HouTXmetro]

Wondering what effect will the Big blow up of storms in LA/MS/AL headed towards the GOM will have on the gulf convection. I would guess the outflow would disrupt anything that's trying to get going in the Gulf.

[White Cap]

Not necessarily. That could ultimately enchance it.

[caneman]

This buoy is falling rapidly at .12 in just 4 hours.

[skysummit]

LSU's Low Cloud Product

[Stratosphere747]

Pro mets have explanied the pressure drops yall are seeing as normal. If needed I'll try and find it.....

[ammmyjjjj]

Looks to be moving more eastwardly than anything else????

[greg_kfdm_tv]

The pressure falls are normal diurnal falls that occur every late afternoon.

The convection is decreasing and not deep at all. Also, there is no indication of any surface circulation. I would not look for any development from this system unless the thunderstorm activity becomes much deeper and persists for at least another 24 hours.