Tropical Storm Beryl

cpdaman · #701 Postby **cpdaman** » Wed Jul 19, 2006 3:11 pm

although beryl is leaving the gulf stream shortly, the water temps are still 79 degrees up near 39N along her path and upper 70's just south of southern new england coast

if shear is less than forecast is it possible to maintian a storm up to weak hurricane strength in this 79 degree water

wxmann_91 · #702 Postby **wxmann_91** » Wed Jul 19, 2006 3:17 pm

From the looks of it, Beryl is only strengthening due to QG/outflow enhancement in the poleward direction. It still has the sheared look in the southern half of the circulation, but that should be no problem due to the divergence from the trough and the fact that the southern half is still over the Gulf Stream waters.

abryant.ma · #703 Postby **abryant.ma** » Wed Jul 19, 2006 3:17 pm

latest high-def. image of beryl via MODIS:

#704 Postby **dixiebreeze** » Wed Jul 19, 2006 3:48 pm

Un oh... A possible Long Island 'Cane! Those folks won't know what to do. :roll:

HurricaneHunter914 · #705 Postby **HurricaneHunter914** » Wed Jul 19, 2006 3:50 pm

Beryl is a fighter, I hope she doesn't make landfall near the Big Apple or any landfall at that matter.

abryant.ma · #706 Postby **abryant.ma** » Wed Jul 19, 2006 4:05 pm

hmmm... i'm not sure what to think. where is she going?! lol

#707 Postby **Hybridstorm_November2001** » Wed Jul 19, 2006 4:09 pm

I just hope the NHC knows what their doing (never thought I'd say that)

#708 Postby **HURAKAN** » Wed Jul 19, 2006 4:09 pm

HurricaneHunter914 wrote:That was some pretty rapid strengthening if you ask me. 45 to 60 mph is a big jump.

Wilma says that she could have done better!!! :lol:

x-y-no · #709 Postby **x-y-no** » Wed Jul 19, 2006 4:09 pm

Just called my folks on Cape Cod to give them a heads-up. Looks to me like they could well be affected during early morning Friday.

#710 Postby **curtadams** » Wed Jul 19, 2006 4:17 pm

Quite an impressive burst there. Beryl isn't much of a threat to the NY and NE coast as the jet stream is predicted to move a bit south and so they will be shieded by 60kt+ shear.

all_we_know_is_FALLING · #711 Postby **all_we_know_is_FALLING** » Wed Jul 19, 2006 4:31 pm

dixiebreeze wrote:Un oh... A possible Long Island 'Cane! Those folks won't know what to do.

A hurricane? That's highly unlikely.
And they've been through hurricanes before, BTW.

#712 Postby **CrazyC83** » Wed Jul 19, 2006 4:34 pm

HURAKAN wrote:
HurricaneHunter914 wrote:That was some pretty rapid strengthening if you ask me. 45 to 60 mph is a big jump.

Wilma says that she could have done better!!!

It would have had to go from 45 to 160 to match Wilma...

Opal storm · #713 Postby **Opal storm** » Wed Jul 19, 2006 4:38 pm

Hybridstorm_November2001 wrote:I just hope the NHC knows what their doing (never thought I'd say that)

What makes you say that?The NHC is doing a great job as always IMO.I just hope folks along the north east coast are taking this seriously and keeping an eye on it.

abryant.ma · #714 Postby **abryant.ma** » Wed Jul 19, 2006 4:44 pm

SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED OVER AND AROUND THE
CIRCULATION AND SOME ADDITIONAL SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE
DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO WHILE THE CYCLONE CENTER REMAINS
OVER WARM WATER. BY 24-36 HOURS...BERYL WILL BE MOVING OVER SUB-25C
SSTS RESULTING IN A WEAKENING TREND. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE CLOSE
PROXIMITY OF THE STORM TO THE WARM GULFSTREAM AND THE EXPECTED
CONTINUED INFLUX OF WARM UNSTABLE AIR IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE...
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE GENERATED...WHICH
SHOULD ACT TO BOTH KEEP THE INTENSITY HIGHER THAN NORMAL AND
MAINTAIN A DEEP VERTICAL STRUCTURE THAT HAS BEEN DISCUSSED IN THE
PREVIOUS PARAGRAPH.

interesting.

abryant.ma · #715 Postby **abryant.ma** » Wed Jul 19, 2006 4:55 pm

i'm going to go out on a limb here and say that the track is going to be very, very close to the cape.

#716 Postby **skysummit** » Wed Jul 19, 2006 4:58 pm

I believe that's the wrong steering chart you're using. That's for a storm 940 - 949hpa.

#717 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Wed Jul 19, 2006 5:09 pm

i'm going to go out on a limb here and say that the track is going to be very, very close to the cape.

I am going to agree with you... it's a good thing they put out the watches along the coast of MA.

I would be willing to be that with the more intense thunderstorms forming over the gulf stream.. it's going to get steered more by the upper levels.

Stands a pretty good chance of at least brushing the coast with some good outer bands.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm5.html

WindRunner · #718 Postby **WindRunner** » Wed Jul 19, 2006 5:41 pm

SouthFloridawx wrote:
i'm going to go out on a limb here and say that the track is going to be very, very close to the cape.

I am going to agree with you... it's a good thing they put out the watches along the coast of MA.

I would be willing to be that with the more intense thunderstorms forming over the gulf stream.. it's going to get steered more by the upper levels.

Stands a pretty good chance of at least brushing the coast with some good outer bands.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm5.html

On the other hand . . . this would be the typical steering flow for Beryl right now . . . and look where it takes her!
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8dlm2.html

mtm4319 · #719 Postby **mtm4319** » Wed Jul 19, 2006 5:52 pm

skysummit wrote:I believe that's the wrong steering chart you're using. That's for a storm 940 - 949hpa.

On the other hand . . . this would be the typical steering flow for Beryl right now . . . and look where it takes her!
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8dlm2.html

Both that one and the 1000-1010mb map both show the same steering patterns. Here's the 1000mb+ one. (Beryl is 1002mb)

cpdaman · #720 Postby **cpdaman** » Wed Jul 19, 2006 5:59 pm

PROMETS is there any evidence this evening that this thing MAY move further west and impact NJ or NY

Tropical Storm Beryl

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