Tropical Storm Watch issued for all of Southeastern Mass.

[abryant.ma]

000
WTNT32 KNHC 192049
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BERYL ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022006
500 PM EDT WED JUL 19 2006

...BERYL GETTING STRONGER AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD AND PARALLELS THE
EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS...

AT 5 PM EDT...2100 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS FROM PLYMOUTH SOUTHWARD AND WESTWARD TO
WOODS HOLE...INCLUDING CAPE COD...NANTUCKET ISLAND AND MARTHA'S
VINEYARD.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERYL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 36.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.5 WEST OR ABOUT 135
MILES...220 KM...NORTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA AND ABOUT
390 MILES...630 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS.

BERYL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TONIGHT... WITH A GRADUAL TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST EXPECTED ON THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 12 TO
24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 100 MILES...160 KM
...MAINLY NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 500 PM EDT POSITION...36.3 N...73.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

thoughts?

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

I'm worried. It is looking like we could have a bad setup for this one. It might merge with a developing "nor'easter" a la the "Perfect Storm" in 1991. I doubt it'll be anywhere near that strong; to early in the season for a really powerful baroclinic zone to setup, and it should not stall like the 1991 event did. Still, I'm more than a little concerned.

[CrazyC83]

Nor'easter in July??? That would be unprecedented indeed.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Well I call it a 'Nor'Easter' because a low is going to form along a front in Southern New England (so many of the models show), and merge with Beryl, or her left overs. In Winter such a system would be a 'Nor'Easter'.

[abryant.ma]

can we some images to support this?

[HalloweenGale]

I'm camped out and ready......

[Extremeweatherguy]

I think this system will be just as powerful as any nor'easter for parts of southern New England. Wouldn't even be surprised to see hurricane force gusts in areas of SE Mass.

[abryant.ma]

well, we'll find out soon enough. the only difference is that this storm is getting pretty tightly packed. and nor' easters are more big, and slow than anything.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/sloop-vis.html

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

000
WTNT42 KNHC 192048
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM BERYL DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022006
500 PM EDT WED JUL 19 2006

LATEST RECON PASS AROUND 2030Z INDICATED A 57 KT 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL
WIND IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT AND A SURFACE PRESSURE OF 1002
MB. ALSO...A DROPSONDE IN THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT REPORTED A
SURFACE WIND OF 49 KT. BASED ON THIS INFORMATION AND THE IMPROVING
STRUCTURE IN RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY...THE INTENSITY HAS BEEN
INCREASED TO 50 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 005/07 KT. RADAR AND SATELLITE POSITION
ESTIMATES HAVE BEEN COMING IN 12-18 NMI WEST AND NORTHWEST OF RECON
POSITIONS...INDICATING SOME NORTHWESTWARD TILT OF THE VORTEX
COLUMN. BUT OVERALL...BERYL HAS BEEN MOVING SLIGHTLY EAST OF DUE
NORTH FOR THE PAST 12 HOURS OR SO. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS AS BERYL MOVES NORTHWARD
THROUGH A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND IS INFLUENCED MAINLY
BY DEEP SOUTHERLY STEERING FLOW AS NOTED IN WATER VAPOR-DERIVED
WINDS FROM UW-CIMSS. MOST OF THE MODELS TAKE A WEAK AND VERTICALLY
SHALLOW BERYL INTO THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. COAST ANYWHERE FROM NEW
JERSEY EASTWARD TO SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND. THE EXCEPTIONS ARE THE
CANADIAN MODEL AND ESPECIALLY THE UKMET MODEL. HOWEVER... ALL OF
THE MODELS KEEP THE 500 MB CIRCULATION CENTER WELL OFFSHORE LONG
ISLAND AND SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS. MY FEELING IS THAT BERYL
WILL REMAIN A MORE VERTICALLY DEEP SYSTEM AND...THEREFORE... BE
STEERED MORE NORTHEAST AND EASTWARD BY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY
APPROACHING THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. THIS SCENARIO IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS TWO FORECAST TRACKS AND THE UKMET AND CANADIAN MODEL
CONSENSUS...AND IS A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE GUNA MODEL. SHOULD BERYL
MOVE TO THE LEFT OF THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK... IT IS LIKELY TO
DO SO AS A VERY WEAK SYSTEM.

SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED OVER AND AROUND THE
CIRCULATION AND SOME ADDITIONAL SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE
DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO WHILE THE CYCLONE CENTER REMAINS
OVER WARM WATER. BY 24-36 HOURS...BERYL WILL BE MOVING OVER SUB-25C
SSTS RESULTING IN A WEAKENING TREND. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE CLOSE
PROXIMITY OF THE STORM TO THE WARM GULFSTREAM AND THE EXPECTED
CONTINUED INFLUX OF WARM UNSTABLE AIR IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE...
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE GENERATED...WHICH
SHOULD ACT TO BOTH KEEP THE INTENSITY HIGHER THAN NORMAL AND
MAINTAIN A DEEP VERTICAL STRUCTURE THAT HAS BEEN DISCUSSED IN THE
PREVIOUS PARAGRAPH.

DUE TO THE ANTICIPATED CLOSE APPROACH OF BERYL TO EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS BEING
ISSUED AT THIS TIME.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 19/2100Z 36.3N 73.5W 50 KT
12HR VT 20/0600Z 37.4N 73.3W 55 KT
24HR VT 20/1800Z 38.7N 72.6W 55 KT
36HR VT 21/0600Z 40.3N 70.4W 50 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 21/1800Z 42.1N 67.1W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 22/1800Z 45.4N 59.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 23/1800Z...MERGED WITH EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

WOCN31 CWHX 200000
TROPICAL STORM BERYL INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE
CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 9.00 PM ADT
WEDNESDAY 19 JULY 2006.

THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 3.00 AM ADT

...TROPICAL STORM BERYL GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED...

1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION

AT 9.00 PM ADT... TROPICAL STORM BERYL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
36.5 N AND LONGITUDE 73.4 W... ABOUT 120 NAUTICAL MILES OR 220 KM
NORTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS . MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 50 KNOTS... 93 KM/H... AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 1002
MB. BERYL IS MOVING NORTH NORTHEAST AT 8 KNOTS... 15 KM/H.

2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH

DATE TIME LAT LON MSLP MAX WIND
ADT MB KTS KMH
JUL 19 9.00 PM 36.5N 73.4W 1002 50 93
JUL 20 9.00 AM 38.0N 73.0W 998 55 102
JUL 20 9.00 PM 39.6N 71.3W 996 55 102
JUL 21 9.00 AM 41.4N 68.8W 997 50 93
JUL 21 9.00 PM 43.0N 65.6W 998 45 83 POST-TROPICAL
JUL 22 9.00 AM 44.7N 61.7W 1000 45 83 POST-TROPICAL
JUL 22 9.00 PM 46.5N 56.8W 1000 40 74 POST-TROPICAL
JUL 23 9.00 AM 48.5N 50.9W 1001 40 74 POST-TROPICAL
JUL 23 9.00 PM 50.7N 44.7W 1002 40 74 POST-TROPICAL

3. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY
THE REMNANTS OF BERYL ARE NOT FORECAST TO AFFECT THE MARITIMES UNTIL
FRIDAY AND NEWFOUNDLAND ON THE WEEKEND.

4. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY
BERYL IS FORECAST TO ENTER CANADIAN WATERS ON FRIDAY AND COULD BRING
SOUTHERLY GALE FORCE WINDS TO SOUTHWESTERN WATERS.

5. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION

A. ANALYSIS
TROPICAL STORM BERYL GAINED A BIT OF STRENGTH TODAY WHILE EAST
OF CAPE HATTERAS. THE STORM IS OVER 27-DEGREE SSTS. AIRCRAFT RECON
AT 2030Z REPORTED A 49-KT SURFACE WIND IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT AND
MAX FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 57 KTS. SATELLITE SHOWS A HEALTHY CDO OVER
THE CENTRE THIS EVENING.

B. PROGNOSTIC
THIS STORM WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN PRESENT INTENSITY OR EVEN INTENSIFY
A BIT MORE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT REMAINS OVER 25C+ SST.
THEREAFTER..WE EXPECT BERYL TO BE MOVING OVER WATERS UNDER 20C AS IT
MOVES EAST OF CAPE COD EARLY FRIDAY. LITTLE OR NO BAROCLINIC
ENHANCEMENT IS LIKELY AS THE STORM MOVES OVER THE COOL WATERS..AT
LEAST INITIALLY.

THE MAIN QUESTION IS HOW STRONG WILL BERYL BECOME BEFORE MOVING OVER
THE COOLER WATER. 60 KTS WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION GIVEN THE
WARM WATERS. THE MAXIMUM INTENSITY ACHIEVED WILL NATURALLY HAVE A
BEARING ON THE FORECAST AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE MARITIMES.

OUR CURRENT FORECAST TRACK LIES IN THE MIDDLE OF VARIOUS NUMERICAL
MODEL TRACKS. THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO HAS BERYL MOVING NEAR OR JUST
EAST OF CAPE COD WITH CLOUD AND PRECIPITATION MERGING WITH A
DEVELOPING COLD FRONT OVER NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY. THE MERGING OF
STORM AND FRONT MAY LEAD TO SOME HEAVY RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE
MARITIME PROVINCES AND EVENTUALLY NEWFOUNDLAND. IT IS TOO EARLY TO
ANTICIPATE AMOUNTS OR WHETHER WE WILL EXPERIENCE MUCH WIND FROM IT..
BUT WE WILL HAVE BETTER IDEA BY EARLY THURSDAY.

IT IS LIKELY THAT THE REMNANTS OF BERYL MAY BEHAVE MORE LIKE A
FRONTAL WEATHER SYSTEM WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND GUSTY WINDS WHEN
IT ENTERS CANADIAN WATERS.

C. PUBLIC WEATHER
SEE ABOVE

D. MARINE WEATHER

PREDICTED WIND RADII (NM)
TIME GALES STORMS HURRICANE
NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW
20/00Z 100 100 40 40 15 15 10 10 0 0 0 0
20/12Z 100 110 55 40 15 20 10 10 0 0 0 0
21/00Z 100 110 75 45 30 40 20 0 0 0 0 0
21/12Z 100 110 75 40 30 40 20 0 0 0 0 0
22/00Z 100 115 75 45 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
22/12Z 100 125 80 55 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
23/00Z 110 140 90 75 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
23/12Z 125 150 100 90 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
24/00Z 135 150 100 90 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

END FOGARTY/CAMPBELL

[abryant.ma]

000
WTNT42 KNHC 192048
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM BERYL DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022006
500 PM EDT WED JUL 19 2006

LATEST RECON PASS AROUND 2030Z INDICATED A 57 KT 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL
WIND IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT AND A SURFACE PRESSURE OF 1002
MB. ALSO...A DROPSONDE IN THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT REPORTED A
SURFACE WIND OF 49 KT. BASED ON THIS INFORMATION AND THE IMPROVING
STRUCTURE IN RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY...THE INTENSITY HAS BEEN
INCREASED TO 50 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 005/07 KT. RADAR AND SATELLITE POSITION
ESTIMATES HAVE BEEN COMING IN 12-18 NMI WEST AND NORTHWEST OF RECON
POSITIONS...INDICATING SOME NORTHWESTWARD TILT OF THE VORTEX
COLUMN. BUT OVERALL...BERYL HAS BEEN MOVING SLIGHTLY EAST OF DUE
NORTH FOR THE PAST 12 HOURS OR SO. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS AS BERYL MOVES NORTHWARD
THROUGH A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND IS INFLUENCED MAINLY
BY DEEP SOUTHERLY STEERING FLOW AS NOTED IN WATER VAPOR-DERIVED
WINDS FROM UW-CIMSS. MOST OF THE MODELS TAKE A WEAK AND VERTICALLY
SHALLOW BERYL INTO THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. COAST ANYWHERE FROM NEW
JERSEY EASTWARD TO SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND. THE EXCEPTIONS ARE THE
CANADIAN MODEL AND ESPECIALLY THE UKMET MODEL. HOWEVER... ALL OF
THE MODELS KEEP THE 500 MB CIRCULATION CENTER WELL OFFSHORE LONG
ISLAND AND SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS. MY FEELING IS THAT BERYL
WILL REMAIN A MORE VERTICALLY DEEP SYSTEM AND...THEREFORE... BE
STEERED MORE NORTHEAST AND EASTWARD BY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY
APPROACHING THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. THIS SCENARIO IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS TWO FORECAST TRACKS AND THE UKMET AND CANADIAN MODEL
CONSENSUS...AND IS A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE GUNA MODEL. SHOULD BERYL
MOVE TO THE LEFT OF THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK... IT IS LIKELY TO
DO SO AS A VERY WEAK SYSTEM.

SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED OVER AND AROUND THE
CIRCULATION AND SOME ADDITIONAL SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE
DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO WHILE THE CYCLONE CENTER REMAINS
OVER WARM WATER. BY 24-36 HOURS...BERYL WILL BE MOVING OVER SUB-25C
SSTS RESULTING IN A WEAKENING TREND. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE CLOSE
PROXIMITY OF THE STORM TO THE WARM GULFSTREAM AND THE EXPECTED
CONTINUED INFLUX OF WARM UNSTABLE AIR IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE...
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE GENERATED...WHICH
SHOULD ACT TO BOTH KEEP THE INTENSITY HIGHER THAN NORMAL AND
MAINTAIN A DEEP VERTICAL STRUCTURE THAT HAS BEEN DISCUSSED IN THE
PREVIOUS PARAGRAPH.

DUE TO THE ANTICIPATED CLOSE APPROACH OF BERYL TO EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS BEING
ISSUED AT THIS TIME.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 19/2100Z 36.3N 73.5W 50 KT
12HR VT 20/0600Z 37.4N 73.3W 55 KT
24HR VT 20/1800Z 38.7N 72.6W 55 KT
36HR VT 21/0600Z 40.3N 70.4W 50 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 21/1800Z 42.1N 67.1W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 22/1800Z 45.4N 59.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 23/1800Z...MERGED WITH EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

yeah but, it'll be south of Newfoundland by then.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

That is what I mean.

PS: Check out the Cyclone phase page:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/

Some of the models show what I'm talking about.

[HurricaneBill]

The last tropical storm to landfall on New England was Tropical Storm Hermine in 2004.

[Hohwxny]

WRT the tropical storm watches, an interesting tidbit from the 11 p.m. discussion:

CONSEQUENTLY...NO TROPICAL STORM WATCH OR WARNING IS BEING ISSUED FOR LONG ISLAND AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...IT'S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A SHORT-FUSED TROPICAL STORM WARNING MIGHT BE REQUIRED IN THE MORNING.



If there is a tropical storm warning in effect when people wake up tomorrow, people are going to be suprised.

[CrazyC83]

The watch should be extended north to Gloucester, MA and west to Watch Hill, RI, based on the latest cone of uncertainty.

[Rainband]

The watch should be extended north to Gloucester, MA and west to Watch Hill, RI, based on the latest cone of uncertainty.

A watch means possible. Thats what uncertainty is