Hurricane Daniel (05E) in CPAC

[cycloneye]

NRL has at 00:00z Daniel at 95kts,962 mbs,Close to major cane.But at advisory NHC can bump it to cat 3.

[Cyclenall]

NRL has at 00:00z Daniel at 95kts,962 mbs,Close to major cane.But at advisory NHC can bump it to cat 3.

They should have done that HOURS ago. Still a bit too low though. Hopefully a CAT3 by the next advisory.

[Epsilon_Fan]

That pinhole eye is sweet combined with a bigger outer eye that is partially clouded over... looks like a buzzsaw

[AnnularCane]

He looks like he has a pupil!

Daniel, you need to blink at some point.

[HURAKAN]

Danielito is doing great!!!

[cycloneye]

Still Daniel is going thru the ERC proccess but neverless looks very impressive.

[bombarderoazul]

What are the chances of Daniel affecting hawaii.

[Cyclenall]

What are the chances of Daniel affecting hawaii.

% chance of Hurricane Daniel affecting Hawaii:

4%

Still Daniel is going thru the ERC proccess but neverless looks very impressive.

He has been going through a ERC for over 7 hours. What is taking him so long? Come on!!

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Looks like Katrina just before that eye open up. Would not be suprized if his winds right now where closer to 110 knots.

[Cyclenall]

Looks like Katrina just before that eye open up. Would not be suprized if his winds right now where closer to 110 knots.

He looked like Katrina 6 hours ago. I was expecting Daniel to clear out the eye and finish the ERC but instead a pin-hole eye poked out and then we had 2 eyes. Now I don't know what he is doing because he looks the same as he looked 7-8 hours ago.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Take a look at the last few frames the storm is becoming more round, and the storm is expending like Katrina. Watch that eye to clear out over the next hour or two. The nhc will most likely only top it out at 120 knots even so its stronger then that at the time....This is my thinking.

[Cyclenall]

Take a look at the last few frames the storm is becoming more round, and the storm is expending like Katrina. Watch that eye to clear out over the next hour or two. The nhc will most likely only top it out at 120 knots even so its stronger then that at the time....This is my thinking.

Yes, but don't you remember 7 hours ago? I thought the exact same thing and nothing happened! How come all Epac storms act this way?

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Katrina took a long time to expand to do what she did. This one the EWRC is about done...In then the storm will bomb.

[cycloneye]

064
WTPZ45 KNHC 200258
TCDEP5
HURRICANE DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052006
800 PM PDT WED JUL 19 2006

THE LATEST SATELLITE AND MICROWAVE IMAGES SUGGEST THAT DANIEL HAS
NOT FINISHED ITS EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE. WHILE CONVECTION HAS
BECOME STRONGER IN THE OUTER EYEWALL...THE INNER EYEWALL HAS ALSO
BECOME BETTER-DEFINED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. DVORAK ESTIMATES
ARE A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAIN THAN NORMAL BECAUSE OF THE EYEWALL
CYCLE AND CONSEQUENTLY THE INTENSITY IS MORE DIFFICULT TO
ASCERTAIN. THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 95 KT IS BASED ON
SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITIES OF 90 KT FROM ALL AGENCIES...A CIMSS
AMSU ESTIMATE OF 101 KT AT 2100 UTC AND ADT ESTIMATES OF T5.7...104
KT...DURING THE PAST THREE HOURS. 64 KT WIND RADII HAVE BEEN
INCREASED IN RESPONSE TO THE LARGER EYEWALL FORMATION.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BIT TRICKY TONIGHT GIVEN THE CURRENT
STRUCTURE OF THE HURRICANE. OUR BEST GUESS IS THAT THE INNER
EYEWALL WILL DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT. FORECAST ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS OF LIGHT EASTERLY SHEAR AND SLOWLY DECREASING WATER
TEMPERATURES BELOW 28C ALSO SUGGEST THAN THE HURRICANE COULD BECOME
AN ANNULAR-TYPE SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS LEAVES OPEN
THE POSSIBILITY FOR A STRONGER AND LONGER-LASTING HURRICANE THAN
GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST. THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL REMAIN HIGHER
THAN GUIDANCE FOR THE FIRST 48 HOURS UNTIL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO
INCREASE AND SSTS QUICKLY DECREASE.

IT APPEARS THAT DANIEL HAS FINALLY HALTED ANY SOUTHWARD MOTION WITH
MORE OF A WESTWARD MOTION...275/7. TRACK GUIDANCE IS CLUSTERED
AROUND A WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS BEFORE THE
GUIDANCE DIVERGES INTO BASICALLY 3 CAMPS. THIS SPLIT APPEARS TO BE
DUE TO A MIDDLE TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY NEAR 30N124W. THE GFDL
TAKES THIS LOW WESTWARD AND WEAKENS THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF
DANIEL ENOUGH TO ALLOW RECURVATURE EAST OF 130W. THE GFS/GFS
ENSEMBLES MOVE THE FEATURE FARTHER WEST BUT STILL ALLOW MORE
POLEWARD MOTION OF THE HURRICANE AT THE END OF THE FORECAST. THE
FASTEST SOLUTIONS ARE PROVIDED BY THE UKMET/ECMWF/NOGAPS WHICH MOVE
THE LOW OUT OF THE PICTURE QUICKLY AND KEEPS SUBTROPICAL RIDGING
RELATIVELY FIRM TO THE NORTH OF THE STORM. WE ARE GOING TO RELY ON
THE GLOBAL MODELS HAVING A BETTER HANDLE ON THE TROUGH THAN THE
GFDL AND STAY BETWEEN THE GFS CLUSTER AND THE EUROPEAN CLUSTER...TO
THE WEST OF CONU AND A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 20/0300Z 12.0N 121.0W 95 KT
12HR VT 20/1200Z 12.2N 122.1W 105 KT
24HR VT 21/0000Z 12.7N 123.6W 110 KT
36HR VT 21/1200Z 13.2N 125.1W 110 KT
48HR VT 22/0000Z 13.8N 126.9W 100 KT
72HR VT 23/0000Z 14.5N 130.0W 80 KT
96HR VT 24/0000Z 15.5N 133.0W 65 KT
120HR VT 25/0000Z 17.0N 136.0W 55 KT

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/FRANKLIN

[wxmann_91]

I would agree with NHC in keeping this a Cat 2 throughout the day. Also I agree that this could become annular after the ERC. The outflow pattern is spectacular.

[Cyclenall]

Here are my thoughts on Daniel in %:

New % chance for Hurricane Daniel to become a:

Tropical Storm: 100%
Hurricane: 100%
Major Hurricane: 79%
Category 4 Hurricane: 10% (Quite high)
Category 5 Hurricane: 5%

Hurricane Daniel is looking like Katrina 4 hours before landfall. However, the size is much different and the eye is not yet clear. What is the record for the longest lasting ERC in a tropical cyclone? I think Daniel may creep up the rankings of that record because he is taking so long!! 10 hours now .

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Katrina had one lasting almost a day.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Here is mine...

Tropical storm 100%
Hurricane 100%
Cat2 100%
Cat3 99% because its one
Cat4 50%
Cat5 10% Why just because it looks like one of those gulf storms.

[Cyclenall]

Hurricane Daniel is now a major hurricane!

The NRL has it at 100 Knots and a pressure of 960 mb. Well done Daniel for getting the NRL and NHC to finally call you a major. You have been one for 11 hours IMO.

My next post will be in the morning unless something huge happens.

[cycloneye]

TCDEP5
HURRICANE DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052006
200 AM PDT THU JUL 20 2006

SHORT-WAVE VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY...AS WELL AS AN
EXCELLENT SSMIS OVERPASS FROM AROUND 0400 UTC...INDICATE DANIEL'S
EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE IS NOW COMPLETE. CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES ARE 102 KT FROM TAFB...90 KT FROM SAB...AND 102 KT FROM
THE AVERAGED ADT ESTIMATES. BASED UPON THE ABOVE...THE INITIAL
INTENSITY HAS BEEN RAISED TO 100 KT AND DANIEL IS NOW A MAJOR
HURRICANE.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW SLIGHTLY NORTH OF DUE WEST...280/8.
DANIEL IS FINALLY GAINING A BIT OF LATITUDE WHILE STEERED BY A
LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BECOME
MORE CLUSTERED IN THE LATTER PERIODS AS OPPOSED TO THE PREVIOUS
CYCLE...WITH THE SOLUTION LEANING TOWARD A WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION
THROUGH FIVE DAYS. SINCE THIS SOLUTION WAS FOLLOWED IN THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY...THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS JUST AN UPDATE
WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN BOTH SPEED AND DIRECTION.

THE CHALLENGE WITH DANIEL LIES IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST. BOTH THE
SHIPS AND GFDL INTENSITY GUIDANCE CAPS THE HURRICANE AT 100 KT.
HOWEVER DUE TO THE RECENT COMPLETION OF THE EYEWALL REPLACEMENT
CYCLE...FURTHER INTENSIFICATION TO 115 KT IS FORECAST.
ADDITIONALLY...A WARM OCEAN AND A LIGHT SHEAR ENVIRONMENT ARE
ANTICIPATED FOR THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS WHICH SHOULD MAINTAIN
DANIEL AS A STRONG HURRICANE. THEREAFTER...COOLER SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN
THE CYCLONE TO A TROPICAL STORM IN 5 DAYS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 20/0900Z 12.2N 121.9W 100 KT
12HR VT 20/1800Z 12.4N 123.1W 110 KT
24HR VT 21/0600Z 13.0N 124.6W 115 KT
36HR VT 21/1800Z 13.5N 126.3W 110 KT
48HR VT 22/0600Z 14.0N 128.0W 100 KT
72HR VT 23/0600Z 15.0N 131.0W 80 KT
96HR VT 24/0600Z 16.0N 134.0W 65 KT
120HR VT 25/0600Z 17.0N 137.0W 55 KT

$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI/BEVEN



Now Daniel is a major hurricane.



Look at that ring.