Beryl=Local and NHC Advisories

[Brent]

I doubt they go down... since 55 mph doesn't round off to 50 or 55 kt, it'll probably stay at 60.

[HurricaneHunter914]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/avn.jpg

Convection blow-up over the center. I say between 65 - 75 mph now.

[JonathanBelles]

have they already made their mind up about the intensity or win they do that at the last minate?

[Brent]

TROPICAL STORM BERYL DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022006
1100 PM EDT WED JUL 19 2006

DESPITE REPEATED BURSTS OF DEEP CONVECTION VERY CLOSE TO THE CENTER
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING...REPORTS FROM THE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT THROUGH 00Z INDICATED THAT BERYL HAD NOT
STRENGTHENED ANY FURTHER. HOWEVER...SHIP AND AIRCRAFT DATA DO
INDICATE THAT THE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND RADII HAVE EXPANDED A
BIT. ANOTHER AIRCRAFT WILL BE IN THE SYSTEM AT 06Z.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 015/8. A NUMBER OF MODELS FROM EARLIER
TODAY...INCLUDING THE GFS...NOGAPS...AND MOST PROMINENTLY THE
GFDL...WERE FORECASTING A NORTH OR EVEN NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION
THAT DID NOT OCCUR AND THEREFORE AT 00Z WERE NEARLY A DEGREE TO THE
LEFT OF THE ACTUAL POSITION. STILL...I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED BY A
TEMPORARY LEFTWARD JOG OVERNIGHT...PARTICULARLY GIVEN THAT THE
STRONGEST CONVECTION IS STILL NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER. HOWEVER...
BERYL IS ROUNDING THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND WILL BE FEELING THE
MID-LEVEL WESTERLIES WITHIN 24 HOURS. THEREFORE...ANY TURN BACK TO
THE NORTH SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED. MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL
MODELS...ADJUSTED FOR INITIAL POSITION ERROR...KEEP THE CENTER OF
BERYL OFF THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES IN RESPONSE TO THE
INCREASING WESTERLIES. THE GFDL IS THE PRIMARY OUTLIER. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK.

THERE IS TIME FOR A LITTLE STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR
SO...BUT BY THIS TIME TOMORROW BERYL WILL BE OVER MUCH COOLER
WATERS. IN ADDITION...A SHARP 200 MB TROUGH WILL BE OVERTAKING THE
CYCLONE...INCREASING WESTERLY SHEAR. BY THE TIME BERYL MAKES ITS
CLOSEST APPROACH TO THE COASTLINE...I WOULD EXPECT IT TO BE
WEAKENING. FURTHER...THE REVERSAL IN THE UPPER FLOW SHOULD
RESTRICT THE STRONGEST WINDS AND HEAVIEST RAINS TO THE EASTERN
SEMICIRCLE AS IT PASSES. CONSEQUENTLY...NO TROPICAL STORM WATCH OR
WARNING IS BEING ISSUED FOR LONG ISLAND AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...
IT'S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A SHORT-FUSED TROPICAL STORM
WARNING MIGHT BE REQUIRED IN THE MORNING.

REGARDING THE PRONUNCIATION OF BERYL...A REVIEW OF SEVERAL
DICTIONARIES SHOWS THAT BOTH BER'-IL AND BURL ARE ACCEPTED
PRONUNCIATIONS...AND IN FACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DIRECTIVE
SPECIFIES THE FORMER...TWO SYLLABLE...PRONUNCIATION. THE ONLY BERYL
I PERSONALLY KNOW ALSO PRONOUNCES IT BER'-IL. WE APOLOGIZE FOR ANY
CONFUSION.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 20/0300Z 37.0N 73.0W 50 KT
12HR VT 20/1200Z 38.1N 72.7W 55 KT
24HR VT 21/0000Z 39.6N 71.3W 50 KT
36HR VT 21/1200Z 41.5N 68.5W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 22/0000Z 43.7N 64.4W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 23/0000Z...MERGED WITH FRONTAL ZONE

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[JonathanBelles]

60 mph

[Brent]

TROPICAL STORM BERYL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022006
0300 UTC THU JUL 20 2006

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEASTERN
MASSACHUSETTS FROM PLYMOUTH TO WOODS HOLE...INCLUDING CAPE
COD...NANTUCKET ISLAND AND MARTHA'S VINEYARD.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.0N 73.0W AT 20/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 15 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT.......120NE 85SE 50SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS..125NE 100SE 50SW 50NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.0N 73.0W AT 20/0300Z
AT 20/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 36.6N 73.1W

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 38.1N 72.7W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT...120NE 85SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 39.6N 71.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 75SE 40SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 41.5N 68.5W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 90SE 60SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 43.7N 64.4W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 90SE 60SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z...MERGED WITH FRONTAL ZONE

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 37.0N 73.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[Brent]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BERYL ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022006
1100 PM EDT WED JUL 19 2006

...BERYL CONTINUES NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEASTERN
MASSACHUSETTS FROM PLYMOUTH TO WOODS HOLE...INCLUDING CAPE
COD...NANTUCKET ISLAND AND MARTHA'S VINEYARD.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERYL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 37.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.0 WEST OR ABOUT 265
MILES...430 KM...SOUTH OF NEW YORK CITY AND ABOUT 335 MILES...540 KM
...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS.

BERYL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR...
AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH A TURN TO THE
NORTHEAST BY LATE TOMORROW.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...WITH
WEAKENING EXPECTED BY LATE TOMORROW.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 1100 PM EDT POSITION...37.0 N...73.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[HurricaneHunter914]

Okay, I don't like it that the NHC kept her at the same intensity, but it is pretty reasonable because of the earlier recon reports. I hope recon will find an increase of winds once they get there.

[cheezyWXguy]

I hope its this strength or less when it makes landfall if it does and especially if it makes lanfall on long island

[JonathanBelles]

000
WTNT32 KNHC 200553
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BERYL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 7A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022006
200 AM EDT THU JUL 20 2006

...NEW RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FINDS THE CENTER BERYL A LITTLE WEST
OF THE PREVIOUS POSITION...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEASTERN
MASSACHUSETTS FROM PLYMOUTH TO WOODS HOLE...INCLUDING CAPE
COD...NANTUCKET ISLAND AND MARTHA'S VINEYARD. TROPICAL STORM
WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATCH AREA LATER
TODAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 200 AM EDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERYL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 37.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.3 WEST OR ABOUT 235
MILES...380 KM...SOUTH OF NEW YORK CITY AND ABOUT 320 MILES...515 KM
...SOUTHWEST OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS.

BERYL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING...WITH
WEAKENING EXPECTED LATER TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 200 AM EDT POSITION...37.4 N...73.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[Thunder44]

Tropical Storm Beryl Forecast/Advisory Number 8

0900 UTC Thu Jul 20 2006


at 5 am EDT...0900 UTC...a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for
southeastern Massachusetts from Plymouth to Woods Hole...including
Cape Cod...Nantucket Island and Martha's Vineyard.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area within the next 24 hours.

Additional watches or warnings may be required for portions of Long
Island and the New England coast later today.

Tropical storm center located near 37.8n 73.2w at 20/0900z
position accurate within 20 nm

present movement toward the north or 5 degrees at 8 kt

estimated minimum central pressure 1001 mb
Max sustained winds 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt.
50 kt....... 40ne 40se 20sw 20nw.
34 kt.......120ne 90se 60sw 50nw.
12 ft seas..125ne 100se 60sw 60nw.
Winds and seas vary greatly in each quadrant. Radii in nautical
miles are the largest radii expected anywhere in that quadrant.

Repeat...center located near 37.8n 73.2w at 20/0900z
at 20/0600z center was located near 37.4n 73.3w

forecast valid 20/1800z 39.0n 72.6w
Max wind 50 kt...gusts 60 kt.
50 kt... 40ne 40se 20sw 20nw.
34 kt...120ne 90se 60sw 50nw.

Forecast valid 21/0600z 40.6n 70.7w
Max wind 45 kt...gusts 55 kt.
34 kt... 90ne 90se 40sw 30nw.

Forecast valid 21/1800z 42.7n 67.3w...extratropical
Max wind 45 kt...gusts 55 kt.
34 kt... 75ne 90se 60sw 30nw.

Forecast valid 22/0600z 45.5n 62.0w...extratropical
Max wind 40 kt...gusts 50 kt.
34 kt... 75ne 90se 60sw 0nw.

Forecast valid 23/0600z...merged with frontal zone

request for 3 hourly ship reports within 300 miles of 37.8n 73.2w

next advisory at 20/1500z

$$
forecaster Beven

[Thunder44]

Statement as of 5:00 am EDT on July 20, 2006


...Hurricane hunter reports Beryl moving northward with little
change in strength...

at 5 am EDT...0900 UTC...a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for
southeastern Massachusetts from Plymouth to Woods Hole...including
Cape Cod...Nantucket Island and Martha's Vineyard.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area within the next 24 hours.

Additional watches or warnings may be required for portions of Long
Island and the New England coast later today.

For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.

At 500 am EDT...0900z...the center of Tropical Storm Beryl was
located near latitude 37.8 north...longitude 73.2 west or about 210
miles...340 km...south of New York City and about 295 miles...470 km
...Southwest of Nantucket Massachusetts.

Beryl is moving toward the north near 9 mph...15 km/hr. A turn
toward the northeast and a faster forward speed are expected during
the next 24 hours. This motion could bring the center of Beryl
near the southeastern coast of Massachusetts Thursday night or
Friday morning.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph...95 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 24
hours.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 140 miles...220 km
from the center.

The latest minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force Reserve
hurricane hunter aircraft is 1001 mb...29.56 inches.

Storm tides of 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels are possible in
the warning area.
Storm total rainfalls of 2 to 4 inches are possible in association
with Beryl.

Repeating the 500 am EDT position...37.8 N...73.2 W. Movement
toward...north near 9 mph. Maximum sustained winds...60 mph.
Minimum central pressure...1001 mb.

An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane
Center at 800 am EDT followed by the next complete advisory at 1100
am EDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

[Thunder44]

000
WTNT42 KNHC 200856
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM BERYL DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022006
500 AM EDT THU JUL 20 2006

THE RADAR SIGNATURE OF BERYL ON THE DOVER DELAWARE WSR-88D HAS
IMPROVED SOMEWHAT OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...WITH A PROMINENT
AND PERSISTENT CONVECTIVE BAND ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE CENTER.
THIS MAY HAVE CAUSED A REFORMATION OF THE CENTER...AS THE AIR FORCE
RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FOUND BERYL WEST OF THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY POSITION. THE AIRCRAFT REPORTED A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF
1001 MB WITH MAXIMUM 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 64 KT IN THE
SOUTHEAST QUADRANT. A DROPSONDE IN THIS AREA ALSO MEASURED 47 KT
SURFACE WINDS. BASED ON THIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 50
KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 005/8. SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THAT BERYL IS ABOUT TO ENTER THE WESTERLIES...WITH CIRRUS
CLOUDS AND DRY PATCHES OF AIR IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY LOCATED WEST
OF THE STORM NOW BLOWING TOWARD IT. THE CYCLONE SHOULD TURN
NORTHEASTWARD AND ACCELERATE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS IN THE
GENERAL DIRECTION OF SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND AND NOVA SCOTIA.
MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS CLUSTERED AROUND A TRACK JUST SOUTH
OF NANTUCKET AND OVER NOVA SCOTIA...AND THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS
NUDGED TO THE NORTH IN RESPONSE TO THIS AS WELL AS THE CURRENT
POSITION AND MOTION. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE GFDL AND THE GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN REMAIN LEFT OUTLIERS...CALLING FOR THE CENTER OF
BERYL TO ACTUALLY MAKE LANDFALL IN NEW ENGLAND.

BERYL IS FORECAST TO ENCOUNTER INCREASING SHEAR AND PROGRESSIVELY
COOLER WATER...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN GRADUAL WEAKENING. THE
APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT SHOULD CAUSE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IN
36-48 HR...AND THE CYCLONE IS LIKELY TO LOSE ITS IDENTITY IN THE
FRONTAL ZONE BEYOND THAT TIME. WHILE THE INTENSITY FORECAST NO
LONGER CALLS FOR STRENGTHENING...SOME SHORT-LIVED STRENGTHENING
COULD OCCUR TODAY.

IF BERYL MOVES TO THE LEFT OF THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK...
ADDITIONAL WATCHES OF WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR LONG ISLAND AND
PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND LATER TODAY.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 20/0900Z 37.8N 73.2W 50 KT
12HR VT 20/1800Z 39.0N 72.6W 50 KT
24HR VT 21/0600Z 40.6N 70.7W 45 KT
36HR VT 21/1800Z 42.7N 67.3W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 22/0600Z 45.5N 62.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 23/0600Z...MERGED WITH FRONTAL ZONE

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[cycloneye]

158
WTNT32 KNHC 201146
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BERYL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 8A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022006
800 AM EDT THU JUL 20 2006

...BERYL MOVING NORTHWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS
FROM PLYMOUTH TO WOODS HOLE...INCLUDING CAPE COD...NANTUCKET ISLAND
AND MARTHA'S VINEYARD.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF LONG
ISLAND AND THE NEW ENGLAND COAST LATER TODAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 800 AM EDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERYL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 38.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.0 WEST OR ABOUT 170
MILES...280 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF NEW YORK CITY AND ABOUT 260
MILES...420 KM...SOUTHWEST OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS.

BERYL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND A FASTER FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION COULD BRING THE CENTER OF BERYL
NEAR THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF MASSACHUSETTS TONIGHT OR FRIDAY
MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.

STORM TIDES OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE WARNING AREA.

STORM TOTAL RAINFALLS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION
WITH BERYL.

REPEATING THE 800 AM EDT POSITION...38.2 N...73.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[WindRunner]

WTNT22 KNHC 201438
TCMAT2
TROPICAL STORM BERYL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022006
1500 UTC THU JUL 20 2006

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEASTERN
MASSACHUSETTS FROM PLYMOUTH TO WOODS HOLE...INCLUDING CAPE
COD...NANTUCKET ISLAND AND MARTHA'S VINEYARD.

AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED
FROM WEST OF WOODS HOLE MASSACHUSETTS WESTWARD TO NEW HAVEN
CONNECTICUT...AND FOR EASTERN LONG ISLAND EAST OF FIRE ISLAND AND
FORT JEFFERSON. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.8N 72.7W AT 20/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 20 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT.......120NE 90SE 60SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS..125NE 100SE 60SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.8N 72.7W AT 20/1500Z
AT 20/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 38.3N 73.0W

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 39.8N 72.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 60SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 41.7N 69.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 40SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 43.5N 65.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 90SE 60SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 38.8N 72.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA



WTNT32 KNHC 201502
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BERYL ADVISORY NUMBER 9...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022006
1100 AM EDT THU JUL 20 2006

...CORRECTED TO CHANGE FORT JEFFERSON TO PORT JEFFERSON...

...RAINS FROM BERYL ALREADY AFFECTING LONG ISLAND AND THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST...EXPECTED TO INCREASE...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEASTERN
MASSACHUSETTS FROM PLYMOUTH TO WOODS HOLE...INCLUDING CAPE
COD...NANTUCKET ISLAND AND MARTHA'S VINEYARD.

AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED
FROM WEST OF WOODS HOLE MASSACHUSETTS WESTWARD TO NEW HAVEN
CONNECTICUT...AND FOR EASTERN LONG ISLAND EAST OF FIRE ISLAND AND
PORT JEFFERSON. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERYL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 38.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.7 WEST OR ABOUT 150
MILES...240 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF NEW YORK CITY AND ABOUT 220
MILES...355 KM...SOUTHWEST OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS.

BERYL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR.
THIS MOTION COULD BRING THE CENTER OF THE STORM NEAR THE
SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF MASSACHUSETTS TONIGHT OR FRIDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM
MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.

STORM TIDES OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE WARNING AREA.

STORM TOTAL RAINFALLS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION
WITH BERYL. THESE RAINS EXTEND WELL TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER.

REPEATING THE 1100 AM EDT POSITION...38.8 N...72.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA



WTNT42 KNHC 201439
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM BERYL DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022006
1100 AM EDT THU JUL 20 2006

OBSERVATIONS FROM A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE FROM ABOUT 3 HOURS AGO...
QUIKSCAT DATA...AND SATELLITE ESTIMATES INDICATE THAT BERYL HAS NOT
CHANGED IN INTENSITY AND THE MAXIMUM WINDS REMAIN AT 50 KNOTS. DEEP
CONVECTION HAS BEGUN TO DECREASE AS A PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION
MOVES OVER INCREASING COOLER WATERS. IT IS ESTIMATED THAT BERYL HAS
REACHED PEAK INTENSITY AND WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN.
BERYL IS EXPECTED TO BE AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY THE TIME IT
APPROACHES SOUTHWESTERN NOVA SCOTIA IN ABOUT 24 TO 36 HOURS AND
BECOME ABSORBED BY A LARGER EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE THEREAFTER.

BERYL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 020 DEGREES AT 11
KNOTS. THE CYCLONE IS ALREADY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A DIGGING TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES.
THEREFORE...A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED IS FORECAST. ON THIS TRACK...THE CYCLONE WILL BE
PASSING VERY NEAR THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA TONIGHT OR EARLY
FRIDAY. HOWEVER...BECAUSE BERYL IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BECOME
EXTRATROPICAL...MOST OF THE RAINFALL WILL EXTEND WELL TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER AS IT IS COMMON IN THIS TYPE OF SYSTEM.

DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES IN THE FORECAST AND THE POSSIBILITY OF A SMALL
DEVIATION TO THE LEFT OF THE TRACK...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR EASTERN LONG ISLAND AND PORTIONS OF CONNECTICUT AND
RHODE ISLAND.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 20/1500Z 38.8N 72.7W 50 KT
12HR VT 21/0000Z 39.8N 72.0W 45 KT
24HR VT 21/1200Z 41.7N 69.0W 45 KT
36HR VT 22/0000Z 43.5N 65.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 22/1200Z...EXTRATROPICAL

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[Brent]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BERYL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 9A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022006
200 PM EDT THU JUL 20 2006

...BERYL CONTINUES TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEASTERN
MASSACHUSETTS FROM PLYMOUTH TO WOODS HOLE...INCLUDING CAPE
COD...NANTUCKET ISLAND AND MARTHA'S VINEYARD.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEST OF WOODS HOLE
MASSACHUSETTS WESTWARD TO NEW HAVEN CONNECTICUT...AND FOR EASTERN
LONG ISLAND EAST OF FIRE ISLAND INLET AND PORT JEFFERSON HARBOR. A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 200 PM EDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERYL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 39.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.6 WEST OR ABOUT 125
MILES...200 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF NEW YORK CITY AND ABOUT 195
MILES...315 KM...SOUTHWEST OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS.

BERYL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 11 MPH...17 KM/HR.
THIS MOTION COULD BRING THE CENTER OF THE STORM NEAR THE
SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF MASSACHUSETTS TONIGHT OR FRIDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM
MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.

STORM TIDES OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE WARNING AREA.

STORM TOTAL RAINFALLS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION
WITH BERYL. THESE RAINS EXTEND WELL TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER.

REPEATING THE 200 PM EDT POSITION...39.1 N...72.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 11 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[Jim Cantore]

60mph, 1002mb, what else is new, shes been that way for over a day.

[cycloneye]

550
WTNT32 KNHC 202030
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BERYL ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022006
500 PM EDT THU JUL 20 2006

...BERYL GRADUALLY WEAKENING...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEASTERN
MASSACHUSETTS FROM PLYMOUTH TO WOODS HOLE...INCLUDING CAPE
COD...NANTUCKET ISLAND AND MARTHA'S VINEYARD.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEST OF WOODS HOLE
MASSACHUSETTS WESTWARD TO NEW HAVEN CONNECTICUT...AND FOR EASTERN
LONG ISLAND EAST OF FIRE ISLAND INLET AND FORT JEFFERSON HARBOR.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERYL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 39.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.0 WEST OR ABOUT 125
MILES...205 KM...SOUTHEAST OF NEW YORK CITY AND ABOUT 155 MILES...
250 KM...SOUTHWEST OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS.

BERYL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR. ON THIS
TRACK...BERYL WILL BE PASSING NEAR OR OVER NANTUCKET ISLAND AND
SOUTHEASTERN CAPE COD LATER TONIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH...85
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM
TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE
PLANE WAS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.

STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE WARNING AREA.

STORM TOTAL RAINFALLS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION
WITH BERYL. THESE RAINS EXTEND WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.

REPEATING THE 500 PM EDT POSITION...39.6 N...72.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA


763
WTNT42 KNHC 202031
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM BERYL DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022006
500 PM EDT THU JUL 20 2006

THE MINIMUM PRESSURE MEASURED BY A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS 1002 MB
AND THE MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS REPORTED SO FAR ARE 56 KNOTS.
BECAUSE THE CYCLONE IS OVER COOL WATERS...THESE WINDS MOST LIKELY
ARE NOT REACHING THE SURFACE. THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS
BEEN LOWERED TO 45 KNOTS. BERYL'S DEEP CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED
CONSIDERABLY AND IS BECOMING A TIGHT SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS WHICH IS
TYPICAL OF CYCLONES MOVING OVER COOL WATERS. A GRADUAL WEAKENING IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE AND BERYL SHOULD BECOME EXTRATROPICAL BY 24
HOURS AS IT APPROACHES NOVA SCOTIA.

BERYL IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 035 DEGREES AT 12 KNOTS.
THE CYCLONE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF A DIGGING TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THEREFORE...A
GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
FORECAST. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE WILL BE PASSING
VERY NEAR NANTUCKET AND EASTERN CAPE COD LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY
FRIDAY. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE RAINS EXTEND WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE
CENTER. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CONSISTENT WITH THE MODEL
CONSENSUS WHICH SHOWS THE CYCLONE MOVING OVER OR JUST SOUTH
SOUTHEASTERN OF CAPE COD.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 20/2100Z 39.6N 72.0W 45 KT
12HR VT 21/0600Z 41.0N 70.5W 40 KT
24HR VT 21/1800Z 43.0N 67.0W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
36HR VT 22/0600Z 46.0N 61.0W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 22/1800Z...ABSORBED BY A FRONT

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[tropicana]

4:16 PM ADT Thursday 20 July 2006
Rainfall warning for
NOVA SCOTIA, CANADA
issued by the Canadian Hurricane Centre in Halifax, NS

Rainfall amounts up to 50 millimetres or more are forecast Friday.This is a warning that significant rainfall is expected or occurring in these regions. Monitor weather conditions..Listen for updated statements.



The remnants of tropical storm Beryl are forecast to brush the atlantic coast of Nova Scotia late Friday. Rainfall amounts of 50 millimetres are forecast across western portions of Nova Scotia Friday with higher amounts possible. Rainfall amounts of 20 to 30 millimetres are forecast over eastern sections. It is possible that rainfall warnings may need to be extended as the system tracks along the coast. Also wind gusts of up to 80 km/h are forecast along the atlantic coast with this system.

[JonathanBelles]

now probably on its final downswing