lets make some predications beryl next 24 hours

Hohwxny · #21 Postby **Hohwxny** » Wed Jul 19, 2006 11:06 pm

cheezywxman wrote:
Hohwxny wrote:
cheezywxman wrote:well good god, if ur scenario happens I might as well call my grandma on Long Island and tell her good bye

Even IF that scenario happened, all your grandma would have to do is request transportation to a shelter...that is if she lived on the shore areas. It is not like the entire island would be underwater.

very true...but I can tell you that it sure wouldnt be much fun to be in the middle of a cat 2 hurricane although Im sure shell know what to do

Of course it wouldn't be fun to be in one, but the chance of that happening is very slim...however, everyone should be prepared for it.

cheezyWXguy · #22 Postby **cheezyWXguy** » Wed Jul 19, 2006 11:09 pm

I took a nap a little while ago anddreamed I went to bed w/ this thing as a 60mph TS and when I woke up in the morning it was a 90 mph storm headed for central long island...I woke up sweating so much the collar on my shirt was soaked

Jim Cantore · #23 Postby **Jim Cantore** » Wed Jul 19, 2006 11:25 pm

The storms worst effects will be near the center.

how can I lose?

#24 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Wed Jul 19, 2006 11:27 pm

cheezywxman wrote:I took a nap a little while ago anddreamed I went to bed w/ this thing as a 60mph TS and when I woke up in the morning it was a 90 mph storm headed for central long island...I woke up sweating so much the collar on my shirt was soaked

Dude your dreaming storms? I had dreams about storms when they were coming at me... before Frances, Jeanne and Wilma.

cheezyWXguy · #25 Postby **cheezyWXguy** » Wed Jul 19, 2006 11:55 pm

SouthFloridawx wrote:
cheezywxman wrote:I took a nap a little while ago anddreamed I went to bed w/ this thing as a 60mph TS and when I woke up in the morning it was a 90 mph storm headed for central long island...I woke up sweating so much the collar on my shirt was soaked

Dude your dreaming storms? I had dreams about storms when they were coming at me... before Frances, Jeanne and Wilma.

Lol...its not to hard when ur thinking about ur family

marcane_1973 · #26 Postby **marcane_1973** » Thu Jul 20, 2006 1:13 am

Beryl is on its way to extratropical with those cold waters. Beryl has hit its peak with 60 mph winds and will go down steadily from here on out. Beryl will make a more northeastward track later today and be gone. Beryl will go down being just another named storm in the month of July that was a semi-weak TS and gave surfer dudes some decent swells. Goodbye little Beryl of a storm. You tried your best but it is way too early in the season for conditions to support a Hurricane.

Cyclenall · #27 Postby **Cyclenall** » Thu Jul 20, 2006 1:21 am

SouthFloridawx wrote:
cheezywxman wrote:I took a nap a little while ago anddreamed I went to bed w/ this thing as a 60mph TS and when I woke up in the morning it was a 90 mph storm headed for central long island...I woke up sweating so much the collar on my shirt was soaked

Dude your dreaming storms? I had dreams about storms when they were coming at me... before Frances, Jeanne and Wilma.

I have dreams nearly every night of tropical cyclones and the current ones too. If there is a active storm out there worldwide, I will have a small dream just hours before I wake up in the morning. The dream is about the storms I think about the most often (Daniel right now).

This morning my dream was about Hurricane Daniel becoming a CAT4 and invest 92E becoming Emilia. I also think Beryl became a hurricane in my dream... This is no joke, every morning it's the same thing.

Grease Monkey · #28 Postby **Grease Monkey** » Thu Jul 20, 2006 2:18 am

I've been having a couple dreams of watching tornadoes form in the near distance (sometimes more than one at a time) and having to drive away fast. Slightly scary, but adventurous and very intriguing. I guess hurricanes just don't really scare me because I have a good idea when they're heading my way well in advance. Maybe we should rename this thread and call it something like "Weather and nightmares."

Cyclenall · #29 Postby **Cyclenall** » Thu Jul 20, 2006 12:55 pm

I had a dream this morning that Beryl became a hurricane and I was wrong. Nothing about Daniel for some reason...

Jim Cantore · #30 Postby **Jim Cantore** » Thu Jul 20, 2006 1:07 pm

I say it will brush cape cod at about 55mph

#31 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Thu Jul 20, 2006 1:09 pm

I guess I should have posted this in here...

SouthFloridawx wrote:Ok obviously my intensity forecast was CRAP on that one but, I gotta keeping trying to forecast in order to learn more. EXPERIENCE CREATES KNOWLEDGE!

Anyway I am sticking with my landfall area on this one at Tropical Storm force. IMO According to the 11AM advisory the storm as sped up a little faster today to 11kts and still moving northward. A gradual turn to the northeast and increasing forward speed is whatI am expecting over then next 12-18 hours. Also we should see the same intensity for the next 12 hours but, it is moving into an area of High Shear in the Mid-Upper levels and we all know what happens when a tropical cyclone moves into one of those areas.

I can't update my graphic as I am at work but, I will when I get home tonight for my next forecast.

SouthFloridawx wrote:Ok my forecast.... it's just an ameture forecast. After looking at everything this is what I have come up with.

I expect Beryl to pick up in forward spead to about 10mph. Modest Strengthening has occured near the center but, looking at the latest satelite images the northern side has lost some convection but, probably only temporarily.

Looking at the current steering flow 250-850mb and water vapor imagry, it appears that the shortwave that is going to meet up with the storm in about 12 hours or so is not as strong as it once was. Mainly the Atlantic Ridge steering Beryl right now. I expect that Beryl will reach hurricane strength with in the next 12 hour but, then weaken to tropical storm force and gain extra-tropical status in 24-36 hours. Not much more to say right now... .maybe this will pan out who knows...

CIMSS 850-250mb steering flow
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm5.html

WV Loop
http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _ls_0.html

Please keep in mind this is my first Forecast.

Just now getting a chance to look at the latest Visible image of Beryl... I expect landfall in or around the same area I have indicated above around 2-5am tonight.

Josephine96 · #32 Postby **Josephine96** » Thu Jul 20, 2006 1:26 pm

I say 70 mph.. just scraping either Long Island or the coast of Mass. then quickly becoming extra tropical.

#33 Postby **NDG** » Thu Jul 20, 2006 1:37 pm

50 mph, barely scraping the coast of Massachussetts. Yes, this thing is dying!

Josephine96 · #34 Postby **Josephine96** » Thu Jul 20, 2006 1:38 pm

slow and painful death..

#35 Postby **Hybridstorm_November2001** » Thu Jul 20, 2006 2:27 pm

Nantuket/Cape Cod landfall, as a TS, then up into the Gulf of Maine/Bay of Fundy while phasing with the cold front and becoming extratropical.

lets make some predications beryl next 24 hours

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