Tropical Storm Beryl

[angelwing]

It's very very cloudy and very windy here in Wrightstown NJ, we're about 65 miles inland from Atlantic City. I just emailed my hubby to see what the weather is like in Philly right now. (and yes she looks like Beryl is getting bigger!)

[wxman57]

I cant believe how much better organized beryl is than alberto, yet weaker

I would say that Alberto's winds were closer to 50-55 mph. Recon used a 90% FL to surface conversion in a hybrid storm. Plenty of buoys in Alberto's path reported about 40-45 kt max winds. So the argument here is that Alberto really was much weaker than the NHC indicated.

[Eyewall]

its gonna hit land no doubt!!
here we go with a fun day in the NE

[Hohwxny]

If it were up to me Id be putting TS watches on all of long island by now

Well, you were half right...

AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR EASTERN LONG ISLAND EAST OF FIRE ISLAND AND FORT JEFFERSON. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

[cheezyWXguy]

I think by 5 all of long island will be put in TS watch/ warning

[Hohwxny]

its gonna hit land no doubt!!
here we go with a fun day in the NE

How do you know that it is going to "hit land no doubt"?

11 a.m. track from NCH still has it passing east of ACK:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphic ... 3day?large

[Hohwxny]

I think by 5 all of long island will be put in TS watch/ warning

Do you believe that the storm is going to make landfall on LI?

[stormtruth]

Is there any surge projected for these areas?

[cheezyWXguy]

I think by 5 all of long island will be put in TS watch/ warning

Do you believe that the storm is going to make landfall on LI?

If it makes landfall in mass/RI, Im pretty sure at least most of the island could get TS winds or at least gusts...I think I jumped the gun on warnings but for the watches, better safe than sorry

[Hohwxny]

Is there any surge projected for these areas?

The surge for the MA coast, ACK and MVY, I believe, is projected to be 1 to 3 feet. I doubt any noticable surge for the LI/CT, unless the storm makes a turn that is not expected.

[Eyewall]

its gonna hit land no doubt!!
here we go with a fun day in the NE

How do you know that it is going to "hit land no doubt"?

11 a.m. track from NCH still has it passing east of ACK:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphic ... 3day?large

does it look like its following that track?? no
it WILL make a landfall
I'm just not sure where

[Hohwxny]

its gonna hit land no doubt!!
here we go with a fun day in the NE

How do you know that it is going to "hit land no doubt"?

11 a.m. track from NCH still has it passing east of ACK:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphic ... 3day?large

does it look like its following that track?? no
it WILL make a landfall
I'm just not sure where

Considering it is ONLY 4 minutes after that track has been issued, I think that one should wait a little while before saying it isn't following the track.

[stormtruth]

Is there any surge projected for these areas?

The surge for the MA coast, ACK and MVY, I believe, is projected to be 1 to 3 feet. I doubt any noticable surge for the LI/CT, unless the storm makes a turn that is not expected.

Doesn't sound too bad. Thanks.

[cheezyWXguy]

this changed fast from" its gonna be nothing and recurve away, except for all the waves for those surfer dudes" to "Oh my God! Its gonna make landfall noubt!"

[Hohwxny]

I think by 5 all of long island will be put in TS watch/ warning

Do you believe that the storm is going to make landfall on LI?

If it makes landfall in mass/RI, Im pretty sure at least most of the island could get TS winds or at least gusts...I think I jumped the gun on warnings but for the watches, better safe than sorry

That is exactly right...for the LI area, which hasn't seen a storm in almost 15 or 20 {depends if you live closer to NYC or Montauk}, the watches will alert people to the possibly of the storm not following the projected track.

[Hohwxny]

this changed fast from" its gonna be nothing and recurve away, except for all the waves for those surfer dudes" to "Oh my God! Its gonna make landfall noubt!"

Yup, the storms the past few years sure have had some suprises with them...

[Hohwxny]

I think by 5 all of long island will be put in TS watch/ warning

Do you believe that the storm is going to make landfall on LI?

If it makes landfall in mass/RI, Im pretty sure at least most of the island could get TS winds or at least gusts...I think I jumped the gun on warnings but for the watches, better safe than sorry

That is exactly right...for the LI area, which hasn't seen a storm in almost 15 or 20 {depends if you live closer to NYC or Montauk}, the watches will alert people to the possibly of the storm not following the projected track.

Whoops, NHC made a typo...Watch area starts at Port Jefferson, not Fort Jefferson.

[SouthFloridawx]

Ok obviously my intensity forecast was CRAP on that one but, I gotta keeping trying to forecast in order to learn more. EXPERIENCE CREATES KNOWLEDGE!

Anyway I am sticking with my landfall area on this one at Tropical Storm force. IMO According to the 11AM advisory the storm as sped up a little faster today to 11kts and still moving northward. A gradual turn to the northeast and increasing forward speed is whatI am expecting over then next 12-18 hours. Also we should see the same intensity for the next 12 hours but, it is moving into an area of High Shear in the Mid-Upper levels and we all know what happens when a tropical cyclone moves into one of those areas.

I can't update my graphic as I am at work but, I will when I get home tonight for my next forecast.

Ok my forecast.... it's just an ameture forecast. After looking at everything this is what I have come up with.

I expect Beryl to pick up in forward spead to about 10mph. Modest Strengthening has occured near the center but, looking at the latest satelite images the northern side has lost some convection but, probably only temporarily.

Looking at the current steering flow 250-850mb and water vapor imagry, it appears that the shortwave that is going to meet up with the storm in about 12 hours or so is not as strong as it once was. Mainly the Atlantic Ridge steering Beryl right now. I expect that Beryl will reach hurricane strength with in the next 12 hour but, then weaken to tropical storm force and gain extra-tropical status in 24-36 hours. Not much more to say right now... .maybe this will pan out who knows...

CIMSS 850-250mb steering flow
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm5.html

WV Loop
http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _ls_0.html




Please keep in mind this is my first Forecast.

Just now getting a chance to look at the latest Visible image of Beryl... I expect landfall in or around the same area I have indicated above around 2-5am tonight.

[Eyewall]

I think that's a reasonable track

[AnnularCane]

She looks really nice on visible this morning.