Hurricane Daniel (05E) in CPAC

[cycloneye]

The models at 12:00z increases the winds to 105kts,with a pressure of 957 mbs.

HURRICANE DANIEL (EP052006) ON 20060720 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060720 1200 060721 0000 060721 1200 060722 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 12.4N 122.2W 13.0N 124.1W 13.5N 126.0W 14.1N 127.9W
BAMM 12.4N 122.2W 12.8N 123.9W 13.3N 125.5W 13.9N 127.1W
LBAR 12.4N 122.2W 13.0N 123.7W 13.7N 125.7W 14.5N 128.2W
SHIP 105KTS 104KTS 98KTS 89KTS
DSHP 105KTS 104KTS 98KTS 89KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060722 1200 060723 1200 060724 1200 060725 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 14.4N 129.8W 14.8N 133.0W 15.7N 135.6W 17.2N 138.3W
BAMM 14.5N 128.8W 15.7N 132.0W 17.0N 135.6W 18.0N 139.3W
LBAR 14.9N 130.9W 15.4N 136.3W 16.3N 141.0W 17.8N 144.5W
SHIP 77KTS 59KTS 50KTS 46KTS
DSHP 77KTS 59KTS 50KTS 46KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 12.4N LONCUR = 122.2W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 7KT
LATM12 = 11.9N LONM12 = 120.7W DIRM12 = 278DEG SPDM12 = 7KT
LATM24 = 11.9N LONM24 = 119.2W
WNDCUR = 105KT RMAXWD = 25NM WNDM12 = 95KT
CENPRS = 957MB OUTPRS = 1008MB OUTRAD = 240NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 110NM RD34SE = 90NM RD34SW = 90NM RD34NW = 110NM

[HurricaneHunter914]

Now tha Guy named storms are beating Girl named storms. Unlike last year.

[whereverwx]

Looks like it's eyewall replacement cycle is finally almost complete... although I could be wrong, because you know, Daniel is a weird storm. Also... it definitely is looking annular!

[WindRunner]

First full visible of the morning . . . quite impressive! And I second the annular remark . . .

[Cyclenall]

Holy Cow!! We have a annular hurricane now! Quite rare and well done NHC for picking up on it well before it became one.

Hurricane Daniel looks great and that eye is just stunning. He is at 110 Knots which now ties him for the most powerful hurricane of the Epac thus far this year. However, it's forecast he will become a category 4 hurricane soon!! He will become stronger then his uncle Bud!

All Daniel needs to do now is totally clear the eye of clouds and fix his south-west area. Then he will look like a CAT5 hurricane.

[HurricaneHunter914]

The only way this will become annular is when all banding features are gone and the eye becomes fully circular.

[Cyclenall]

The only way this will become annular is when all banding features are gone and the eye becomes fully circular.

He is already annular according to the NHC. He does have some ways to go before looking perfect but he is still annular. This is no Isabel but he does look excellent.

[clfenwi]

000
WTPZ45 KNHC 201438
TCDEP5
HURRICANE DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052006
800 AM PDT THU JUL 20 2006

INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A RATHER SYMMETRIC ANNULAR-
TYPE HURRICANE WITH A WELL DEFINED EYE ABOUT 25-30 NM IN
DIAMETER. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 90 KT FROM
AFWA AND 102 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB. RECENT RAW OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES
FROM TAFB AND CIMSS ARE BETWEEN T6.0 AND 6.5...115 TO 127 KT.
BASED ON A BLEND OF THE SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 110 KT. THIS COULD BE A LITTLE
CONSERVATIVE IF THE OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES ARE CORRECT.

THE CYCLONE HAS BEEN GAINING SOME LATITUDE AND APPEARS TO HAVE
TURNED TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST. THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT
285/8. MODEL GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED AND DANIEL IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN ON A WEST-NORTHWEST HEADING SOUTH OF A LOW/MID-LEVEL
RIDGE FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS. THEREAFTER...THE GFDL TURNS THE CYCLONE
NORTHWARD...AS THE MODEL DEVELOPS A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE. THE
GFS...NOGAPS...AND UKMET KEEP ENOUGH RIDGING NORTH OF HURRICANE TO
MAINTAIN A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD HEADING. THE CURRENT TRACK IS
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND DISCOUNTS THE GFDL SOLUTION. THE
OFFICIAL TRACK IS A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS CHALLENGING. BOTH THE SHIPS AND GFDL
INTENSITY GUIDANCE CAPS THE HURRICANE AT ITS CURRENT INTENSITY. IT
IS ASSUMED THAT DANIEL WILL STRENGTHEN FOR ANOTHER 12 HOURS OR
SO...REACHING CATEGORY 4 STRENGTH. THEREAFTER...SSTS WILL
GRADUALLY COOL AND SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE IN ABOUT 36
HOURS...SO A GRADUALLY WEAKENING IS FORECAST. DUE TO DANIEL'S
ANNULAR APPEARANCE IT WILL LIKELY WEAKEN SLOWER THAN THE GUIDANCE
INDICATES. HOWEVER...AFTER 72 HOURS DANIEL SHOULD BE TRAVERSING
OVER SUB 26 DEGREE WATER AND WEAKENING SHOULD THEN BE A BIT FASTER.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 20/1500Z 12.5N 122.6W 110 KT
12HR VT 21/0000Z 12.9N 123.7W 115 KT
24HR VT 21/1200Z 13.3N 125.1W 115 KT
36HR VT 22/0000Z 13.8N 126.7W 105 KT
48HR VT 22/1200Z 14.3N 128.3W 90 KT
72HR VT 23/1200Z 15.3N 131.5W 75 KT
96HR VT 24/1200Z 16.3N 134.5W 60 KT
120HR VT 25/1200Z 17.5N 137.0W 50 KT

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/AVILA

[CrazyC83]

If he had water like off the Mexican coast or the Loop Current, this would be a Category 5 right now...

[Cyclenall]

If he had water like off the Mexican coast or the Loop Current, this would be a Category 5 right now...

I just checked the latest sat images and he looks like a strong category 4 hurricane right now. If I showed someone a image of Daniel and they never seen or knew any information about it, they would say it was a CAT5 right now based apon looks.

This hurricane is in the top 30 best looking tropical cyclones ever IMO. He looks better now then he did 2 hours ago. Still has some garbage in the eye to clean out.

My guess at strength: 125-130 Knots

EDIT: Garbage in the eye almost gone.

[CrazyC83]

I'm guessing 120 knots (140 mph) right now. Pressure around 943 mb.

[whereverwx]

Wow! Have to agree with those 140 mph estimates...

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Try when that red ring was around the eye around Isabel like...140 knots.

[AnnularCane]

He just needs to rub his eye a little more, maybe a little Visine, and his eye should be fine.

[curtadams]

If he had water like off the Mexican coast or the Loop Current, this would be a Category 5 right now...

I just checked the latest sat images and he looks like a strong category 4 hurricane right now. If I showed someone a image of Daniel and they never seen or knew any information about it, they would say it was a CAT5 right now based apon looks.

No. This is a Cat 5:
[/url]
This is Daniel:

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Like I said when it had the reds ring around its eye it was close.

[Cyclenall]

He just needs to rub his eye a little more, maybe a little Visine, and his eye should be fine.

You always come up with those funny sentences!

No. This is a Cat 5:

Notice how I never said this was a category 5 hurricane....

Like I said when it had the reds ring around its eye it was close.

Those red rings were close. I'm not sure how big a deal it is though.

The garbage in the eye of Daniel is gone!

[cycloneye]

HURRICANE DANIEL (EP052006) ON 20060720 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060720 1800 060721 0600 060721 1800 060722 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 12.6N 123.0W 13.2N 124.6W 13.6N 126.5W 14.1N 128.3W
BAMM 12.6N 123.0W 13.1N 124.6W 13.6N 126.2W 14.2N 127.9W
LBAR 12.6N 123.0W 13.3N 124.6W 14.0N 126.7W 14.6N 129.4W
SHIP 115KTS 116KTS 110KTS 97KTS
DSHP 115KTS 116KTS 110KTS 97KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060722 1800 060723 1800 060724 1800 060725 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 14.4N 130.2W 14.7N 133.2W 15.8N 134.9W 18.4N 136.5W
BAMM 14.9N 129.7W 16.0N 133.6W 16.7N 137.2W 17.5N 140.1W
LBAR 14.9N 132.2W 15.2N 137.6W 15.7N 142.4W 16.9N 146.0W
SHIP 80KTS 58KTS 47KTS 42KTS
DSHP 80KTS 58KTS 47KTS 42KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 12.6N LONCUR = 123.0W DIRCUR = 290DEG SPDCUR = 8KT
LATM12 = 12.1N LONM12 = 121.5W DIRM12 = 289DEG SPDM12 = 8KT
LATM24 = 11.9N LONM24 = 120.0W
WNDCUR = 115KT RMAXWD = 25NM WNDM12 = 100KT
CENPRS = 948MB OUTPRS = 1008MB OUTRAD = 240NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 120NM RD34SE = 100NM RD34SW = 100NM RD34NW = 120NM


115 kts now.

[HurricaneHunter914]

Very strong Cat-3 Hurricane right now.

[Hurricanehink]

Very strong Cat-3 Hurricane right now.

I thought 115 knots was Cat. 4??