TS Beryl Recon Discussion Thread

[WindRunner]

Well, there's one in the air right now, should be in the storm in about an hour. As for the next one, I think there's another overnight flight scheduled again. Today's POD mentions a flight through 21/12Z, and that would be the overnight flight that takes of around 10 or 11pm.

[CrazyC83]

Okay thanks. I didn't know about the one in the air now.

I think we'll find little change in strength, perhaps a slight weakening.

[HurricaneHunter914]

Beryl has probably weakened to a 55 mph TS IMO.

[WindRunner]

Beryl has probably weakened to a 55 mph TS IMO.

That's the one number you can't choose . . . 45kts>50mph, or 50kts>60mph.

[HurricaneHunter914]

Thanks for letting me know.

[cycloneye]

Very soon a vortex message will be up.

[JonathanBelles]

Very soon a vortex message will be up.

wait you said they only come out when the crosss the center and they arent even in the strom yet

[clfenwi]

Very soon a vortex message will be up.

wait you said they only come out when the crosss the center and they arent even in the strom yet

They are in the southwest quadrant of the storm now and we'll probably see the pass through the center on the next set of obs, which will post in three minutes or so.

[cycloneye]

Very soon a vortex message will be up.

wait you said they only come out when the crosss the center and they arent even in the strom yet

The plane will cross the center shortly and after they do it the message will come.

[cycloneye]

SXXX50 KNHC 201810
AF309 0502A BERYL HDOB 25 KNHC
1800. 3859N 07238W 01525 5022 295 017 184 158 018 01545 0000000000
1801 3900N 07237W 01523 5024 302 013 178 162 015 01541 0000000000
1801. 3902N 07236W 01524 5026 307 007 174 174 009 01540 0000000000
1802 3903N 07235W 01524 5025 318 004 174 174 006 01541 0000000000
1802. 3904N 07233W 01526 5025 172 004 170 170 007 01543 0000000000
1803 3906N 07232W 01525 5025 159 011 168 168 013 01542 0000000000
1803. 3907N 07230W 01525 5024 156 018 166 166 020 01544 0000000000
1804 3908N 07229W 01522 5022 147 020 162 162 021 01542 0000000000
1804. 3909N 07227W 01525 5020 145 026 166 166 027 01547 0000000000
1805 3910N 07226W 01525 5017 148 030 166 166 031 01551 0000000000
1805. 3912N 07224W 01523 5014 151 032 166 166 035 01551 0000000000
1806 3913N 07222W 01524 5012 154 036 166 166 038 01554 0000000000
1806. 3914N 07221W 01524 5008 155 040 166 166 040 01558 0000000000
1807 3915N 07219W 01525 5005 155 040 162 162 041 01562 0000000000
1807. 3916N 07218W 01523 5002 155 042 160 160 043 01564 0000000000
1808 3918N 07216W 01524 0002 155 041 160 160 042 01568 0000000000
1808. 3919N 07215W 01523 0005 154 042 158 158 043 01571 0000000000
1809 3920N 07213W 01524 0009 155 043 160 156 043 01575 0000000000
1809. 3921N 07211W 01524 0012 153 044 156 156 044 01579 0000000000
1810 3923N 07210W 01524 0015 153 044 156 156 045 01581 0000000000


Here comes the Vortex Message.

[WindRunner]

URNT12 KNHC 201819
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 20/18:02:20Z
B. 39 deg 05 min N
072 deg 33 min W
C. 850 mb 1429 m
D. 40 kt
E. 230 deg 070 nm
F. 310 deg 043 kt
G. 230 deg 054 nm
H. 1002 mb
I. 15 C/ 1525 m
J. 18 C/ 1522 m
K. 17 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1234 / 8
O. 0.02 / 3 nm
P. AF309 0502A BERYL OB 07
MAX FL WIND 43 KT SW QUAD 17:45:50 Z
MAX FL TEMP 19 C, 227 / 17NM
DECENT BANDING ON N AND NW QUADS
;


Pressure the same, still a decently warm eye.

[WindRunner]

Another vortex shortly; now going into SE quad, which appears to have some decent wind.

[cycloneye]

URNT12 KNHC 201938
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 20/19:25:00Z
B. 39 deg 19 min N
072 deg 26 min W
C. 850 mb 1427 m
D. 35 kt
E. 307 deg 051 nm
F. 063 deg 037 kt
G. 306 deg 031 nm
H. 1002 mb
I. 14 C/ 1524 m
J. 18 C/ 1523 m
K. 17 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1234 / 8
O. 0.02 / 3 nm
P. AF309 0502A BERYL OB 13
MAX FL WIND 52 KT NE QUAD 18:12:00 Z
RAINBANDS IN N AND NW QUADS

Pressure is the same and 52kts at NE quad is the best Beryl has to offer.

[drezee]

Eight 50+ knot readins in last one

[cycloneye]

Eight 50+ knot readins in last one

Still 52 is the number to beat.

[drezee]

Eight 50+ knot readins in last one

Still 52 is the number to beat.

177
SXXX50 KNHC 201950
AF309 0502A BERYL HDOB 35 KNHC
1943 3839N 07134W 01524 0059 229 055 148 146 056 01625 0000000000
1943. 3838N 07132W 01524 0061 230 056 148 142 056 01627 0000000000
1944 3837N 07131W 01523 0063 230 055 150 140 056 01628 0000000000


I guess she heard you...56 is now the new number

[CrazyC83]

It makes Beryl a 45 knot (50 mph) storm with those numbers.

To hold it at 50 knots, we need to find a 60 somewhere. To increase to 55 knots, we need to find a 66 somewhere.

[WindRunner]

It makes Beryl a 45 knot (50 mph) storm with those numbers.

I think that'll likely by the advisory intensity we see at 5pm.

[SouthFloridawx]

It makes Beryl a 45 knot (50 mph) storm with those numbers.

I think that'll likely by the advisory intensity we see at 5pm.

That's what I originally thought when I started to see the data come in.

[WindRunner]

Recon just found 50kt FL wind -> 40kt surface winds at almost 100 miles just outh of due east of the center . . . could/should see a wind radii expansion at 5pm as well.