A little model fun with the Canadian (CMC) out to 144 hours

[Steve]

http://gfx.weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/data/ ... dd_100.gif

This is the wave out in front of TD #2 moving through the south islands and onto the coast of South America.

While watching the PSU model runs this morning, I noted a closed off low in the SE Gulf. I then tuned into Joe B's Tropical Update where he said, "The Canadian is jumping all over it." So I went to Environment Canada's page to check things out for myself. At 144 TD #2 is on its way out to sea as a 1009mb low while the wave is a 1000mb TS heading on in for the Florida Panhandle maybe?

Let's see if the CMC is just anticipating tropical energy or if scores the early victory over the other models.

Steve

[Stormsfury]

You beat me to it, Steve ... I noticed that as well looking the Model Runs from the PSU TC Genesis Potential Fields site as well in regards to TD #2 ... and noticed that feature showing up in the Western Caribbean (the CMC is only run to 72 hours on the TCGPF page) ...

[mf_dolphin]

That's too close to St Petersburg for me LOL

[Rainband]

That's too close to St Petersburg for me LOL

Wow if that happened can you say wet side

[Guest]

MF_DOLPHIN MAGNET - the VACANCY Sign must be ON!

[mf_dolphin]

Still no vacancy here on the Florida west coast....I may have to make sure the sign still works

[Rainband]

Whats even more interesting is Hurricane alley has it's landfall zone for june in the panhandle south to me :o

[Stormsfury]

So far, no other model that I've seen has picked this feature up just yet, so we'll see if the Canadian is on to something or just on something...

The Canadian Model animation at 00z wants to spin up a Western Caribbean low and bring it into the Eastern Gulf of Mexico and into the Panhandle of Florida, and then off the Carolina Coast near the end of the timeframe (Day 10)

[vbhoutex]

IFthis verifies the track looks good to me since it will be moving into an incoming front from the west. However, EVERYTHING depends on that IFsince it is currently the only model showing this potential TS Claudette(or Bill if he doesn't form today).

[Rainband]

I heard the CANADIAN model over develops systems..I guess we will see in a few days..Also interesting that the recon aircraft is sceduled to possibly go on six hour fixes tommorow??? For a dying system that is :? 000
NOUS42 KNHC 111400
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI,FL.
1000 AM EDT WED 11 JUN 2003
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 12/1100Z JUN TO 13/1100Z JUN 2003
TCPOD NUMBER.....03-011

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: POSSIBLY BEGIN 6-HRLY FIXES
ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO NEAR 13.0N 56.5W AT 13/1800Z.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
JWP

[Steve]

Rainband,

Where did you hear that? The Canadian generally has a better handle on the US weather than the GFS does, and also typically does a better job with the details in the tropics. Sometimes it's a compromise between the ECMWF and the GFS.

It's basically forming a Category 1 Hurricane out of a wave on the coast of South America. From my limited experience with "The Canadian", it doesn't often make something out of nothing. So I'd wait and see what the next couple of days bring and how it handlesTD #2 (moving northerly east of the US Atlantic Coast) and the wave moving into the Gulf from south of Florida. What I take from the 00z run is that it obviously feels there will be a deep, tropical moisture flow in the eastern Gulf that doesn't come from TD #2.

Here are some official commentaries on known model biases FWIW. See for yourself (no bias submitted vs. ETA, GFS, et al).

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/mdlbias/biastext.shtml#CMC

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/mdlbias/biastext.html

(won't see much criticism of the Canadian there)

And for all the coastal Floridians, just for fun, check out the 312 GFS:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_312l.gif

LOL. Early signs pointing to a panhandle year?

Steve

[GulfBreezer]

We here in the PH have dodged many bullets and have also had our share of destruction, the most recent however was Erin and Opal. Quite a few years have passed and what we got last year was a whole helluva lotta rain!! Back to back TS's. Most of us here realize how lucky we have been, but the thing that worries me here is the increased population and the attitude of complacency. When you have dodged bullets for so long, people don't put alot into forecasts, 3 day or 5 day!. I pray that we continue to dodge bullets but from all I have studied and looked at and learned, someone in the US is not going to be so lucky this year!

[Rainband]

Rainband,

Where did you hear that? The Canadian generally has a better handle on the US weather than the GFS does, and also typically does a better job with the details in the tropics. Sometimes it's a compromise between the ECMWF and the GFS.

It's basically forming a Category 1 Hurricane out of a wave on the coast of South America. From my limited experience with "The Canadian", it doesn't often make something out of nothing. So I'd wait and see what the next couple of days bring and how it handlesTD #2 (moving northerly east of the US Atlantic Coast) and the wave moving into the Gulf from south of Florida. What I take from the 00z run is that it obviously feels there will be a deep, tropical moisture flow in the eastern Gulf that doesn't come from TD #2.

Here are some official commentaries on known model biases FWIW. See for yourself (no bias submitted vs. ETA, GFS, et al).

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/mdlbias/biastext.shtml#CMC

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/mdlbias/biastext.html

(won't see much criticism of the Canadian there)

And for all the coastal Floridians, just for fun, check out the 312 GFS:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_312l.gif

LOL. Early signs pointing to a panhandle year?

Steve

I read a post on gobpi..I will certainly pay attention to this..as if it does verify..I will be on the wet side of whatever hits the panhandle..if it does!! Thanks STEVE!!!

[Toni - 574]

That looks a little to close to ST. Pete for me. When we get storms North of us, we usually get flooded out. The model I think that has a tendency to over do is the GFDL. Keep me posted.

Toni

[Steve]

>>That looks a little to close to ST. Pete for me. When we get storms North of us, we usually get flooded out. The model I think that has a tendency to over do is the GFDL. Keep me posted.

I'm not buying it this many days out. But it's wild that it's coming up with a landfalling Cat-1 out of an innocuous wave. It's worth a second look whether it's bogus or onto something. We also get to see what kind of a handle it has on things. Does it just sense a source region for generally unstable air in the SE, or is there a storm? Most likely it's overreacting, but it still gives us something to watch.

Steve

[Anonymous]

That's so far out, I'm hesitant to even speculate. But right now I'm thinking the persistent anticyclone over Mexico will produce strong upper level shear and keep anything from organizing. Then again, it could always relocate in a more favorable position by then. Just a wait and see type situation for now.

[Stormsfury]

Saw this on TWC and thought I had to share ...

Hold on a minute! Canadian tropic forecasts???

Does anyone else see the "Jamaican Bobsled Team"-type weirdness of this concept??

*LMAO*

[BEER980]

Well there may be something to the Canadian model after all. Take a look at the GOES Imagery - Western Atlantic Infrared Ch. 4 Loop. There is a pretty good area of convection moving NW in South America. It should be off the coast in 6 hours or so. Maybe this is what the model is picking up.

[Stormsfury]

Well there may be something to the Canadian model after all. Take a look at the GOES Imagery - Western Atlantic Infrared Ch. 4 Loop. There is a pretty good area of convection moving NW in South America. It should be off the coast in 6 hours or so. Maybe this is what the model is picking up.

I have a feeling the model is picking up the monsoon trough, however, it has a tendency to be a little overamplified and has a tremendously warm bias (documented) in winter ... I'm not real sure about summertime situations, but considering no other model has jumped onto this thinking leads me to believe that solution was not the right one.

[BEER980]

Yea I just figure as long as we have thrown all the rules about storm development out the window. We might as well have one form in South America and threaten CONUS.