TS Beryl Recon Reports #2
Moderator: S2k Moderators
Forum rules
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.
-
StormsAhead
- Category 5
- Posts: 1447
- Joined: Thu Jul 14, 2005 6:38 pm
- Location: Cape Cod, Massachusetts
-
StormsAhead
- Category 5
- Posts: 1447
- Joined: Thu Jul 14, 2005 6:38 pm
- Location: Cape Cod, Massachusetts
SXXX50 KNHC 210748
AF300 0602A BERYL HDOB 42 KNHC
0738. 4111N 06816W 01766 0073 187 061 124 124 062 01838 0000000000
0739 4113N 06816W 01771 0073 187 061 118 118 062 01843 0000000000
0739. 4115N 06816W 01764 0074 186 060 116 116 060 01837 0000000000
0740 4118N 06816W 01768 0074 183 059 116 116 060 01841 0000000000
0740. 4120N 06815W 01769 0075 181 060 114 114 060 01842 0000000000
0741 4122N 06815W 01768 0075 179 060 116 116 061 01842 0000000000
0741. 4124N 06815W 01767 0075 179 059 120 120 060 01841 0000000000
0742 4126N 06814W 01768 0076 178 058 122 122 059 01843 0000000000
0742. 4128N 06814W 01768 0077 178 057 126 126 058 01844 0000000000
0743 4130N 06813W 01769 0079 180 058 122 122 058 01846 0000000000
0743. 4132N 06813W 01768 0078 180 058 124 124 058 01844 0000000000
0744 4135N 06812W 01768 0078 177 058 120 120 058 01845 0000000000
0744. 4137N 06812W 01768 0078 175 057 118 108 058 01845 0000000000
0745 4139N 06811W 01768 0079 172 055 114 100 056 01846 0000000000
0745. 4141N 06811W 01768 0081 169 053 120 092 054 01848 0000000000
0746 4143N 06811W 01768 0083 171 054 120 092 054 01850 0000000000
0746. 4145N 06810W 01767 0082 169 052 126 082 053 01848 0000000000
0747 4147N 06810W 01769 0084 169 051 126 080 051 01852 0000000000
0747. 4149N 06810W 01767 0085 167 049 126 068 050 01852 0000000000
0748 4151N 06809W 01768 0086 166 050 122 104 050 01853 0000000000
I doubt they'll get any higher than 70 knots unless they go into that convection in the eastern quadrant.
AF300 0602A BERYL HDOB 42 KNHC
0738. 4111N 06816W 01766 0073 187 061 124 124 062 01838 0000000000
0739 4113N 06816W 01771 0073 187 061 118 118 062 01843 0000000000
0739. 4115N 06816W 01764 0074 186 060 116 116 060 01837 0000000000
0740 4118N 06816W 01768 0074 183 059 116 116 060 01841 0000000000
0740. 4120N 06815W 01769 0075 181 060 114 114 060 01842 0000000000
0741 4122N 06815W 01768 0075 179 060 116 116 061 01842 0000000000
0741. 4124N 06815W 01767 0075 179 059 120 120 060 01841 0000000000
0742 4126N 06814W 01768 0076 178 058 122 122 059 01843 0000000000
0742. 4128N 06814W 01768 0077 178 057 126 126 058 01844 0000000000
0743 4130N 06813W 01769 0079 180 058 122 122 058 01846 0000000000
0743. 4132N 06813W 01768 0078 180 058 124 124 058 01844 0000000000
0744 4135N 06812W 01768 0078 177 058 120 120 058 01845 0000000000
0744. 4137N 06812W 01768 0078 175 057 118 108 058 01845 0000000000
0745 4139N 06811W 01768 0079 172 055 114 100 056 01846 0000000000
0745. 4141N 06811W 01768 0081 169 053 120 092 054 01848 0000000000
0746 4143N 06811W 01768 0083 171 054 120 092 054 01850 0000000000
0746. 4145N 06810W 01767 0082 169 052 126 082 053 01848 0000000000
0747 4147N 06810W 01769 0084 169 051 126 080 051 01852 0000000000
0747. 4149N 06810W 01767 0085 167 049 126 068 050 01852 0000000000
0748 4151N 06809W 01768 0086 166 050 122 104 050 01853 0000000000
I doubt they'll get any higher than 70 knots unless they go into that convection in the eastern quadrant.
0 likes
-
StormsAhead
- Category 5
- Posts: 1447
- Joined: Thu Jul 14, 2005 6:38 pm
- Location: Cape Cod, Massachusetts
SXXX50 KNHC 210758
AF300 0602A BERYL HDOB 43 KNHC
0748. 4153N 06809W 01768 0087 166 050 122 078 051 01854 0000000000
0749 4155N 06809W 01768 0085 167 052 124 082 053 01852 0000000000
0749. 4157N 06809W 01767 0083 168 051 122 080 052 01849 0000000000
0750 4159N 06809W 01770 0082 167 049 122 110 050 01851 0000000000
0750. 4201N 06809W 01766 0081 166 050 122 112 051 01845 0000000000
0751 4204N 06809W 01768 0083 161 051 126 106 052 01850 0000000000
0751. 4206N 06809W 01768 0085 167 045 130 108 046 01851 0000000000
0752 4208N 06809W 01768 0084 158 047 132 088 048 01850 0000000000
0752. 4210N 06809W 01768 0086 156 048 132 086 048 01853 0000000000
0753 4212N 06809W 01768 0085 156 050 132 084 050 01852 0000000000
0753. 4214N 06808W 01768 0085 157 049 134 084 050 01852 0000000000
0754 4216N 06808W 01769 0086 158 047 136 082 048 01853 0000000000
0754. 4218N 06808W 01768 0088 157 048 136 078 048 01855 0000000000
0755 4220N 06807W 01767 0089 157 048 134 076 048 01855 0000000000
0755. 4222N 06807W 01769 0088 157 046 138 078 047 01855 0000000000
0756 4224N 06807W 01769 0088 161 046 134 074 046 01855 0000000000
0756. 4226N 06807W 01767 0088 161 043 134 076 043 01854 0000000000
0757 4228N 06806W 01768 0088 164 041 130 096 041 01855 0000000000
0757. 4230N 06806W 01768 0090 164 041 130 114 042 01856 0000000000
0758 4232N 06806W 01768 0089 166 040 132 108 040 01856 0000000000
AF300 0602A BERYL HDOB 43 KNHC
0748. 4153N 06809W 01768 0087 166 050 122 078 051 01854 0000000000
0749 4155N 06809W 01768 0085 167 052 124 082 053 01852 0000000000
0749. 4157N 06809W 01767 0083 168 051 122 080 052 01849 0000000000
0750 4159N 06809W 01770 0082 167 049 122 110 050 01851 0000000000
0750. 4201N 06809W 01766 0081 166 050 122 112 051 01845 0000000000
0751 4204N 06809W 01768 0083 161 051 126 106 052 01850 0000000000
0751. 4206N 06809W 01768 0085 167 045 130 108 046 01851 0000000000
0752 4208N 06809W 01768 0084 158 047 132 088 048 01850 0000000000
0752. 4210N 06809W 01768 0086 156 048 132 086 048 01853 0000000000
0753 4212N 06809W 01768 0085 156 050 132 084 050 01852 0000000000
0753. 4214N 06808W 01768 0085 157 049 134 084 050 01852 0000000000
0754 4216N 06808W 01769 0086 158 047 136 082 048 01853 0000000000
0754. 4218N 06808W 01768 0088 157 048 136 078 048 01855 0000000000
0755 4220N 06807W 01767 0089 157 048 134 076 048 01855 0000000000
0755. 4222N 06807W 01769 0088 157 046 138 078 047 01855 0000000000
0756 4224N 06807W 01769 0088 161 046 134 074 046 01855 0000000000
0756. 4226N 06807W 01767 0088 161 043 134 076 043 01854 0000000000
0757 4228N 06806W 01768 0088 164 041 130 096 041 01855 0000000000
0757. 4230N 06806W 01768 0090 164 041 130 114 042 01856 0000000000
0758 4232N 06806W 01768 0089 166 040 132 108 040 01856 0000000000
0 likes
-
StormsAhead
- Category 5
- Posts: 1447
- Joined: Thu Jul 14, 2005 6:38 pm
- Location: Cape Cod, Massachusetts
-
StormsAhead
- Category 5
- Posts: 1447
- Joined: Thu Jul 14, 2005 6:38 pm
- Location: Cape Cod, Massachusetts
SXXX50 KNHC 210808
AF300 0602A BERYL HDOB 44 KNHC
0758. 4233N 06806W 01769 0089 168 040 134 094 040 01857 0000000000
0759 4235N 06805W 01767 0091 170 038 130 108 039 01857 0000000000
0759. 4237N 06805W 01767 0091 168 036 130 104 037 01857 0000000000
0800 4239N 06805W 01768 0093 166 035 128 106 035 01860 0000000000
0800. 4241N 06805W 01768 0095 167 035 130 092 036 01862 0000000000
0801 4243N 06804W 01768 0095 169 035 130 086 036 01862 0000000000
0801. 4245N 06804W 01768 0095 169 035 126 096 035 01861 0000000000
0802 4247N 06804W 01767 0094 168 034 128 094 034 01860 0000000000
0802. 4249N 06804W 01770 0094 169 034 126 100 035 01863 0000000000
0803 4251N 06805W 01771 0092 168 031 124 118 033 01862 0000000000
0803. 4250N 06807W 01765 0090 171 027 122 122 028 01854 0000000000
0804 4249N 06808W 01768 0089 172 027 124 106 029 01855 0000000000
0804. 4248N 06809W 01766 0085 171 029 126 096 030 01850 0000000000
0805 4247N 06811W 01771 0087 170 029 126 094 030 01856 0000000000
0805. 4246N 06812W 01766 0088 168 029 126 104 029 01853 0000000000
0806 4245N 06814W 01768 0086 164 028 126 106 029 01853 0000000000
0806. 4244N 06816W 01769 0087 161 028 124 112 029 01854 0000000000
0807 4242N 06817W 01766 0086 161 031 124 118 032 01851 0000000000
0807. 4241N 06819W 01770 0086 163 033 126 100 034 01855 0000000000
0808 4240N 06820W 01765 0087 162 037 128 074 039 01851 0000000000
SXXX50 KNHC 210818
AF300 0602A BERYL HDOB 45 KNHC
0808. 4239N 06821W 01769 0084 165 040 128 080 041 01851 0000000000
0809 4238N 06823W 01767 0088 164 042 132 078 042 01853 0000000000
0809. 4237N 06824W 01770 0089 158 041 138 074 042 01858 0000000000
0810 4236N 06826W 01767 0091 156 039 140 078 039 01857 0000000000
0810. 4235N 06827W 01767 0087 154 040 136 084 040 01853 0000000000
0811 4234N 06829W 01769 0081 155 035 132 096 038 01849 0000000000
0811. 4233N 06830W 01768 0074 154 036 132 092 037 01841 0000000000
0812 4232N 06832W 01768 0069 153 035 130 092 038 01836 0000000000
0812. 4231N 06833W 01766 0068 153 034 132 098 034 01833 0000000000
0813 4230N 06835W 01770 0070 153 036 128 106 037 01839 0000000000
0813. 4229N 06836W 01766 0067 153 038 130 106 039 01832 0000000000
0814 4228N 06838W 01768 0069 156 040 130 110 040 01836 0000000000
0814. 4226N 06839W 01767 0066 161 040 128 128 040 01832 0000000000
0815 4225N 06841W 01771 0069 159 039 126 126 039 01839 0000000000
0815. 4224N 06842W 01767 0064 157 038 128 128 039 01829 0000000000
0816 4223N 06844W 01767 0062 156 038 126 126 039 01828 0000000000
0816. 4222N 06845W 01769 0054 157 038 126 126 038 01822 0000000000
0817 4221N 06847W 01766 0044 156 038 126 126 039 01809 0000000000
0817. 4220N 06848W 01769 0046 155 040 124 124 041 01814 0000000000
0818 4219N 06850W 01767 0028 153 041 120 120 042 01793 0000000000
AF300 0602A BERYL HDOB 44 KNHC
0758. 4233N 06806W 01769 0089 168 040 134 094 040 01857 0000000000
0759 4235N 06805W 01767 0091 170 038 130 108 039 01857 0000000000
0759. 4237N 06805W 01767 0091 168 036 130 104 037 01857 0000000000
0800 4239N 06805W 01768 0093 166 035 128 106 035 01860 0000000000
0800. 4241N 06805W 01768 0095 167 035 130 092 036 01862 0000000000
0801 4243N 06804W 01768 0095 169 035 130 086 036 01862 0000000000
0801. 4245N 06804W 01768 0095 169 035 126 096 035 01861 0000000000
0802 4247N 06804W 01767 0094 168 034 128 094 034 01860 0000000000
0802. 4249N 06804W 01770 0094 169 034 126 100 035 01863 0000000000
0803 4251N 06805W 01771 0092 168 031 124 118 033 01862 0000000000
0803. 4250N 06807W 01765 0090 171 027 122 122 028 01854 0000000000
0804 4249N 06808W 01768 0089 172 027 124 106 029 01855 0000000000
0804. 4248N 06809W 01766 0085 171 029 126 096 030 01850 0000000000
0805 4247N 06811W 01771 0087 170 029 126 094 030 01856 0000000000
0805. 4246N 06812W 01766 0088 168 029 126 104 029 01853 0000000000
0806 4245N 06814W 01768 0086 164 028 126 106 029 01853 0000000000
0806. 4244N 06816W 01769 0087 161 028 124 112 029 01854 0000000000
0807 4242N 06817W 01766 0086 161 031 124 118 032 01851 0000000000
0807. 4241N 06819W 01770 0086 163 033 126 100 034 01855 0000000000
0808 4240N 06820W 01765 0087 162 037 128 074 039 01851 0000000000
SXXX50 KNHC 210818
AF300 0602A BERYL HDOB 45 KNHC
0808. 4239N 06821W 01769 0084 165 040 128 080 041 01851 0000000000
0809 4238N 06823W 01767 0088 164 042 132 078 042 01853 0000000000
0809. 4237N 06824W 01770 0089 158 041 138 074 042 01858 0000000000
0810 4236N 06826W 01767 0091 156 039 140 078 039 01857 0000000000
0810. 4235N 06827W 01767 0087 154 040 136 084 040 01853 0000000000
0811 4234N 06829W 01769 0081 155 035 132 096 038 01849 0000000000
0811. 4233N 06830W 01768 0074 154 036 132 092 037 01841 0000000000
0812 4232N 06832W 01768 0069 153 035 130 092 038 01836 0000000000
0812. 4231N 06833W 01766 0068 153 034 132 098 034 01833 0000000000
0813 4230N 06835W 01770 0070 153 036 128 106 037 01839 0000000000
0813. 4229N 06836W 01766 0067 153 038 130 106 039 01832 0000000000
0814 4228N 06838W 01768 0069 156 040 130 110 040 01836 0000000000
0814. 4226N 06839W 01767 0066 161 040 128 128 040 01832 0000000000
0815 4225N 06841W 01771 0069 159 039 126 126 039 01839 0000000000
0815. 4224N 06842W 01767 0064 157 038 128 128 039 01829 0000000000
0816 4223N 06844W 01767 0062 156 038 126 126 039 01828 0000000000
0816. 4222N 06845W 01769 0054 157 038 126 126 038 01822 0000000000
0817 4221N 06847W 01766 0044 156 038 126 126 039 01809 0000000000
0817. 4220N 06848W 01769 0046 155 040 124 124 041 01814 0000000000
0818 4219N 06850W 01767 0028 153 041 120 120 042 01793 0000000000
0 likes
-
StormsAhead
- Category 5
- Posts: 1447
- Joined: Thu Jul 14, 2005 6:38 pm
- Location: Cape Cod, Massachusetts
UZNT13 KNHC 210827
XXAA 71089 99422 70690 15129 99008 20215 10027 00072 20616 11036
92747 18610 14550 85471 15406 88999 77999
31313 09608 80821
61616 AF300 0602A BERYL OB 15
62626 MXWNDBND SPL 4219N06907W 0824 MBL WND 13042 AEV 20604 DLM W
ND 13544 008915 WL150 11035 077 =
XXBB 71088 99422 70690 15129 00008 20215 11981 21417 22850 15406
33830 14800 44818 11400
21212 00008 10027 11987 12547 22965 14045 33915 15051 44818 15044
31313 09608 80821
61616 AF300 0602A BERYL OB 15
62626 MXWNDBND SPL 4219N06907W 0824 MBL WND 13042 AEV 20604 DLM W
ND 13544 008915 WL150 11035 077 =
"Max Wind Band" with 27 knots at the surface
XXAA 71089 99422 70690 15129 99008 20215 10027 00072 20616 11036
92747 18610 14550 85471 15406 88999 77999
31313 09608 80821
61616 AF300 0602A BERYL OB 15
62626 MXWNDBND SPL 4219N06907W 0824 MBL WND 13042 AEV 20604 DLM W
ND 13544 008915 WL150 11035 077 =
XXBB 71088 99422 70690 15129 00008 20215 11981 21417 22850 15406
33830 14800 44818 11400
21212 00008 10027 11987 12547 22965 14045 33915 15051 44818 15044
31313 09608 80821
61616 AF300 0602A BERYL OB 15
62626 MXWNDBND SPL 4219N06907W 0824 MBL WND 13042 AEV 20604 DLM W
ND 13544 008915 WL150 11035 077 =
"Max Wind Band" with 27 knots at the surface
0 likes
-
WindRunner
- Category 5
- Posts: 5806
- Age: 34
- Joined: Fri Jul 29, 2005 8:07 pm
- Location: Warrenton, VA, but Albany, NY for school
- Contact:
URNT12 KNHC 210851
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 21/08:35:10Z
B. 41 deg 40 min N
069 deg 42 min W
C. 850 mb 1400 m
D. NA kt
E. NA deg nm
F. 147 deg 050 kt
G. 053 deg 043 nm
H. 1001 mb
I. 12 C/ 1760 m
J. 16 C/ 1768 m
K. 15 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345 / 8
O. 0.02 / 4 nm
P. AF300 0602A BERYL OB 16
MAX FL WIND 67 KT SE QUAD 07:02:30 Z
MAX FL TEMP 17 C 207 / 6 NM FROM FL CNTR
This was the last vortex they sent. They are currently flying home.
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 21/08:35:10Z
B. 41 deg 40 min N
069 deg 42 min W
C. 850 mb 1400 m
D. NA kt
E. NA deg nm
F. 147 deg 050 kt
G. 053 deg 043 nm
H. 1001 mb
I. 12 C/ 1760 m
J. 16 C/ 1768 m
K. 15 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345 / 8
O. 0.02 / 4 nm
P. AF300 0602A BERYL OB 16
MAX FL WIND 67 KT SE QUAD 07:02:30 Z
MAX FL TEMP 17 C 207 / 6 NM FROM FL CNTR
This was the last vortex they sent. They are currently flying home.
0 likes
-
HurricaneHunter914
- Category 5
- Posts: 4439
- Age: 31
- Joined: Fri Mar 10, 2006 7:36 pm
- Location: College Station, TX
Once the 11 AM Advisory comes out, since they found 67 kt winds at FL will the NHC increase her wind speed?
0 likes
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
-
cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 146190
- Age: 69
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
The missions to Beryl are over.Now they will "rest" until the next system pops up.I typed "rest" because they train a lot so in reallity they dont rest. 
Last edited by cycloneye on Fri Jul 21, 2006 7:56 am, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
-
WindRunner
- Category 5
- Posts: 5806
- Age: 34
- Joined: Fri Jul 29, 2005 8:07 pm
- Location: Warrenton, VA, but Albany, NY for school
- Contact:
HurricaneHunter914 wrote:Once the 11 AM Advisory comes out, since they found 67 kt winds at FL will the NHC increase her wind speed?
No, they actually found the 67kt FL wind around 3am, and there's a mention and explanation of it in the 5am discussion. They don't think those winds are mixing down, and they are using a .5 or .6 conversion factor for those FL winds.
0 likes
-
Noles2006
- Category 1
- Posts: 424
- Joined: Thu Jun 08, 2006 9:57 am
- Location: Tallahassee, Florida
- Contact:
Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:I'm hoping they find 80 knot flight level in that convection=64 knots.
Not in this case. As someone else mentioned, they do not think the conversion of flight to surface is .8.... and instead is more around .6 or even .5... so even if they found an 80 knot FL wind, it would still only probably be classified as a 40kt storm...
0 likes
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: Google Adsense [Bot], MarioProtVI, NotSparta, sasha_B, tolakram, wwizard and 46 guests