Per MD 1592, at 1630Z update, portions of MO/IL/IN/KY will be under Moderate Risk. Damaging wind is the primary threat. A whole lot of deep layer moisture, dews in the area are in upper 70s at the surface. A large area of -10 to -12 LI's in So. IL as well as extremely unstable CAPE. All that was needed was the forcing mechanism - incoming S/WV trough.
Will be glad to see the cooler temps and lower dews, when all is said and done.
http://spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1592.html
SPC Day 1 outlook upgrades to MOD risk
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WindRunner
- Category 5
- Posts: 5806
- Age: 34
- Joined: Fri Jul 29, 2005 8:07 pm
- Location: Warrenton, VA, but Albany, NY for school
- Contact:
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CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34002
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
Rare to see a PDS Severe T-Storm Watch...this is definitely a very dangerous situation. I think we could see them going HIGH risk by the next advisory for the eastern half, and the MDT extended eastward.
While tornadoes are unlikely, I think we could easily see 100-150 mph straight line winds out of this...what else is new? This is the fifth major derecho since Monday!
While tornadoes are unlikely, I think we could easily see 100-150 mph straight line winds out of this...what else is new? This is the fifth major derecho since Monday!
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TexasStooge
- Category 5
- Posts: 38127
- Joined: Tue Mar 25, 2003 1:22 pm
- Location: Irving (Dallas County), TX
- Contact:
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CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34002
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
New watch issued south of the existing one - not PDS (no reason to be - it is not in the main threat area).
SEL2
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 632
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
335 PM CDT FRI JUL 21 2006
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST ARKANSAS
MISSOURI BOOTHEEL
MUCH OF TENNESSEE
EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 335 PM UNTIL
1100 PM CDT.
HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 40
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 15 MILES NORTH
NORTHWEST OF JONESBORO ARKANSAS TO 15 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF
KNOXVILLE TENNESSEE. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE
THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 631...
DISCUSSION...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WRN KY CONTINUE TO DEVELOP E AND
SE. WITH A VERY WARM AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS ACROSS WATCH
AREA...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING ON
BOUNDARY MOVING SEWD INTO TN AS WELL AS MORE PULSE SEVERE IN WRN
PORTION OF WATCH. PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING
WINDS...PARTICULARLY WITH MORE ORGANIZED STORMS ALONG OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 27020.
...HALES
Note: The parallelogram is only an approximation to the watch, the actual watch is defined by the outlines of the counties contained in it.
SEL2
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 632
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
335 PM CDT FRI JUL 21 2006
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST ARKANSAS
MISSOURI BOOTHEEL
MUCH OF TENNESSEE
EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 335 PM UNTIL
1100 PM CDT.
HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 40
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 15 MILES NORTH
NORTHWEST OF JONESBORO ARKANSAS TO 15 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF
KNOXVILLE TENNESSEE. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE
THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 631...
DISCUSSION...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WRN KY CONTINUE TO DEVELOP E AND
SE. WITH A VERY WARM AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS ACROSS WATCH
AREA...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING ON
BOUNDARY MOVING SEWD INTO TN AS WELL AS MORE PULSE SEVERE IN WRN
PORTION OF WATCH. PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING
WINDS...PARTICULARLY WITH MORE ORGANIZED STORMS ALONG OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 27020.
...HALES
Note: The parallelogram is only an approximation to the watch, the actual watch is defined by the outlines of the counties contained in it.
Note: Click for Watch Status Reports.
WOUS64 KWNS 212029
WOU2
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 632
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
335 PM CDT FRI JUL 21 2006
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 632 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS
ARC021-031-037-055-093-111-220400-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0632.060721T2035Z-060722T0400Z/
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CLAY CRAIGHEAD CROSS
GREENE MISSISSIPPI POINSETT
MOC069-155-220400-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0632.060721T2035Z-060722T0400Z/
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DUNKLIN PEMISCOT
TNC001-003-005-007-009-013-015-017-021-023-027-031-033-035-037-
039-041-043-045-049-053-061-075-077-079-081-083-085-087-093-095-
097-101-105-107-111-113-117-119-121-123-125-129-131-133-135-137-
141-143-145-147-149-151-153-159-161-165-167-169-175-177-183-185-
187-189-220400-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0632.060721T2035Z-060722T0400Z/
TN
. TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANDERSON BEDFORD BENTON
BLEDSOE BLOUNT CAMPBELL
CANNON CARROLL CHEATHAM
CHESTER CLAY COFFEE
CROCKETT CUMBERLAND DAVIDSON
DECATUR DEKALB DICKSON
DYER FENTRESS GIBSON
GRUNDY HAYWOOD HENDERSON
HENRY HICKMAN HOUSTON
HUMPHREYS JACKSON KNOX
LAKE LAUDERDALE LEWIS
LOUDON MACON MADISON
MARSHALL MAURY MCMINN
MEIGS MONROE MONTGOMERY
MORGAN OBION OVERTON
PERRY PICKETT PUTNAM
RHEA ROANE ROBERTSON
RUTHERFORD SCOTT SEQUATCHIE
SMITH STEWART SUMNER
TIPTON TROUSDALE VAN BUREN
WARREN WEAKLEY WHITE
WILLIAMSON WILSON
ATTN...WFO...MEG...OHX...MRX...
Note: The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area. The actual watch is defined by the list of counties (WOU).
SAW2
WW 632 SEVERE TSTM AR MO TN 212035Z - 220400Z
AXIS..40 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF LINE..
15NNW JBR/JONESBORO AR/ - 15NNE TYS/KNOXVILLE TN/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 35NM N/S /11ESE ARG - 7N VXV/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 27020.
LAT...LON 36619075 36598390 35438390 35459075
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU2.
Watch 632 Status Report Message has not been issued yet.
SEL2
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 632
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
335 PM CDT FRI JUL 21 2006
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST ARKANSAS
MISSOURI BOOTHEEL
MUCH OF TENNESSEE
EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 335 PM UNTIL
1100 PM CDT.
HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 40
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 15 MILES NORTH
NORTHWEST OF JONESBORO ARKANSAS TO 15 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF
KNOXVILLE TENNESSEE. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE
THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 631...
DISCUSSION...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WRN KY CONTINUE TO DEVELOP E AND
SE. WITH A VERY WARM AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS ACROSS WATCH
AREA...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING ON
BOUNDARY MOVING SEWD INTO TN AS WELL AS MORE PULSE SEVERE IN WRN
PORTION OF WATCH. PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING
WINDS...PARTICULARLY WITH MORE ORGANIZED STORMS ALONG OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 27020.
...HALES
Note: The parallelogram is only an approximation to the watch, the actual watch is defined by the outlines of the counties contained in it.
SEL2
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 632
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
335 PM CDT FRI JUL 21 2006
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST ARKANSAS
MISSOURI BOOTHEEL
MUCH OF TENNESSEE
EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 335 PM UNTIL
1100 PM CDT.
HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 40
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 15 MILES NORTH
NORTHWEST OF JONESBORO ARKANSAS TO 15 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF
KNOXVILLE TENNESSEE. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE
THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 631...
DISCUSSION...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WRN KY CONTINUE TO DEVELOP E AND
SE. WITH A VERY WARM AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS ACROSS WATCH
AREA...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING ON
BOUNDARY MOVING SEWD INTO TN AS WELL AS MORE PULSE SEVERE IN WRN
PORTION OF WATCH. PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING
WINDS...PARTICULARLY WITH MORE ORGANIZED STORMS ALONG OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 27020.
...HALES
Note: The parallelogram is only an approximation to the watch, the actual watch is defined by the outlines of the counties contained in it.
Note: Click for Watch Status Reports.
WOUS64 KWNS 212029
WOU2
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 632
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
335 PM CDT FRI JUL 21 2006
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 632 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS
ARC021-031-037-055-093-111-220400-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0632.060721T2035Z-060722T0400Z/
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CLAY CRAIGHEAD CROSS
GREENE MISSISSIPPI POINSETT
MOC069-155-220400-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0632.060721T2035Z-060722T0400Z/
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DUNKLIN PEMISCOT
TNC001-003-005-007-009-013-015-017-021-023-027-031-033-035-037-
039-041-043-045-049-053-061-075-077-079-081-083-085-087-093-095-
097-101-105-107-111-113-117-119-121-123-125-129-131-133-135-137-
141-143-145-147-149-151-153-159-161-165-167-169-175-177-183-185-
187-189-220400-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0632.060721T2035Z-060722T0400Z/
TN
. TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANDERSON BEDFORD BENTON
BLEDSOE BLOUNT CAMPBELL
CANNON CARROLL CHEATHAM
CHESTER CLAY COFFEE
CROCKETT CUMBERLAND DAVIDSON
DECATUR DEKALB DICKSON
DYER FENTRESS GIBSON
GRUNDY HAYWOOD HENDERSON
HENRY HICKMAN HOUSTON
HUMPHREYS JACKSON KNOX
LAKE LAUDERDALE LEWIS
LOUDON MACON MADISON
MARSHALL MAURY MCMINN
MEIGS MONROE MONTGOMERY
MORGAN OBION OVERTON
PERRY PICKETT PUTNAM
RHEA ROANE ROBERTSON
RUTHERFORD SCOTT SEQUATCHIE
SMITH STEWART SUMNER
TIPTON TROUSDALE VAN BUREN
WARREN WEAKLEY WHITE
WILLIAMSON WILSON
ATTN...WFO...MEG...OHX...MRX...
Note: The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area. The actual watch is defined by the list of counties (WOU).
SAW2
WW 632 SEVERE TSTM AR MO TN 212035Z - 220400Z
AXIS..40 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF LINE..
15NNW JBR/JONESBORO AR/ - 15NNE TYS/KNOXVILLE TN/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 35NM N/S /11ESE ARG - 7N VXV/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 27020.
LAT...LON 36619075 36598390 35438390 35459075
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU2.
Watch 632 Status Report Message has not been issued yet.
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