Hurricane Daniel (05E) in CPAC

[bombarderoazul]

If it becomes a cat 5 it would be history in the making.

[wxmann_91]

Dan's outflow is absolutely powerful. IMO it is a marginal Cat 5, it does not take much deep convection to bring those winds to the sfc with such powerful outflow. I mean this is textbook outflow pattern for upper-end hurricanes, and if heat content were higher I'm absolutely sure this would be an upper end hurricane.

[Brent]

Waiting... Waiting... Waiting.

[HurricaneBill]

come on you guys...nothing compares!

Nothing compares 2 U!



Sorry, couldn't resist.

[JonathanBelles]

lets start the jeopardy music

[cheezyWXguy]

i dont get it...

[JonathanBelles]

ic ic lol
counting down, have you seen jeopardy?

[Cyclenall]

Still nothing. I can't wait!

[cheezyWXguy]

ic ic lol
counting down, have you seen jeopardy?

if ur talking to me, im talking about the post above urs, fact789, with my post quoted"come on you guys...nothing compares"

[bombarderoazul]

Who is that?

[cycloneye]

910
WTPZ45 KNHC 220258
TCDEP5
HURRICANE DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052006
800 PM PDT FRI JUL 21 2006

CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES ARE COOLING AGAIN...AND DANIEL CURRENTLY IS
SURROUNDED BY A SOLID EYEWALL RING OF -70C OR COLDER TOPS. EYE
TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO WARMING AND THE EYE...NOW ABOUT 25 NM
ACROSS...HAS BEEN SHRINKING. IN ADDITION...DANIEL IS PRESENTLY
MOVING OVER A LOCAL MAXIMUM IN SST. DVORAK CI NUMBERS FROM TAFB
AND SAB WERE 6.5...127 KT...AT 00Z...WHILE THE LATEST 3-HR MEAN RAW
T-NUMBER FROM THE UW/CIMSS ADT WAS T6.7...132 KT. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 130 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. A RECENT AMSU
PASS DOES NOT SHOW ANY EVIDENCE OF ANOTHER EYEWALL CYCLE...AND SO
LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS OR SO. A DEFINITE WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED WHEN SUB-26C
SSTS ARE REACHED IN ABOUT 36 HOURS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/10. THERE HAS BEEN VIRTUALLY NO CHANGE TO
THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST...WHICH CALLS FOR DANIEL TO CONTINUE
JUST NORTH OF WEST FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO TO THE SOUTH OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH 48 HOURS. AFTER THAT...THE GUIDANCE DIFFERS IN HOW THE
RIDGE RESPONDS TO AN UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY ALONG 155W. THE
GFDL...WHICH HAS HAD A RIGHT BIAS WITH DANIEL FOR SOME
TIME...CONTINUES TO SHOW THE SHARPEST NORTHWARD TURN...WHILE THE
UKMET KEEPS THE RIDGE RELATIVELY INTACT AND IS THE SOUTHERNMOST
OUTLIER. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ON THE UKMET SIDE OF THE MODEL
CONSENSUS...AND IS CLOSE TO THE GFS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 22/0300Z 13.6N 128.5W 130 KT
12HR VT 22/1200Z 13.9N 130.0W 130 KT
24HR VT 23/0000Z 14.3N 131.8W 120 KT
36HR VT 23/1200Z 14.8N 133.5W 100 KT
48HR VT 24/0000Z 15.2N 134.7W 75 KT
72HR VT 25/0000Z 15.9N 136.5W 55 KT
96HR VT 26/0000Z 17.5N 138.0W 45 KT
120HR VT 27/0000Z 19.5N 140.5W 30 KT

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[Brent]

HURRICANE DANIEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052006
0300 UTC SAT JUL 22 2006

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 128.5W AT 22/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 933 MB
EYE DIAMETER 25 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 130 KT WITH GUSTS TO 160 KT.
64 KT....... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT....... 80NE 70SE 70SW 80NW.
34 KT.......120NE 100SE 100SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..400NE 350SE 250SW 350NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 128.5W AT 22/0300Z
AT 22/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 128.0W

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 13.9N 130.0W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 70SW 80NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 100SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 14.3N 131.8W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 70SW 80NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 100SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 14.8N 133.5W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 25SE 25SW 35NW.
50 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 90SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 15.2N 134.7W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 90SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 15.9N 136.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 75SE 75SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z 17.5N 138.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 27/0000Z 19.5N 140.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.6N 128.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[rockyman]

Wow! Brings back memories of last year's "buzzsaws"...maybe it's the EPACs turn this year and we can all admire these beauties from afar.

[Andrew92]

Wow! Brings back memories of last year's "buzzsaws"...maybe it's the EPACs turn this year and we can all admire these beauties from afar.

Just as long as they don't do a Kenna, Pauline, or a '97 Nora.

-Andrew92

[JonathanBelles]

which was?

[Andrew92]

which was?

Kenna: Hit Mexico as a C4 hurricane in 2002, weakened from a C5. The town of San Blas was devastated and Puerto Vallarta hard hit.

Pauline: Hit as a C4 near Acapulco, but is more remembered for devastating flooding it caused, which killed hundreds of people back in 1997.

Nora: This one was weaker and followed at first in the footsteps of the much more powerful Linda (this is in 1997). However, this hurricane hit the northern part of Baja California and its remnants caused a lot of problems not just in Mexico, but even into Arizona and further. Damage was nothing major, but it was a reminder that tropical storms CAN cause problems even in Arizona.

-Andrew92

[f5]

Dan's outflow is absolutely powerful. IMO it is a marginal Cat 5, it does not take much deep convection to bring those winds to the sfc with such powerful outflow. I mean this is textbook outflow pattern for upper-end hurricanes, and if heat content were higher I'm absolutely sure this would be an upper end hurricane.

Can Daniel look like this^?

[cheezyWXguy]

nope..katrina wasnt annular

[Cyclenall]

Here are my thoughts right now:

I think Hurricane Daniel is a category 5 hurricane right now. There is no way this can be a 130 Knot hurricane, it's unreal. CrazyC83 once again was right, he predicted a CAT5. I'm looking at all the pics and the cold cloud tops and the strength IMO is at 140 Knots right now. I can't believe that this is in the Eastern Pacific...

Also, now I believe it's the 2nd best looking tropical cyclone I have ever seen. Sorry Hurricane Isabel, you lose! jk. It's tied with Cyclone Monica currently.

What else can I say? Just a super crazy hurricane. Best looking TC in the EPAC ever IMO as well.

[f5]

nope..katrina wasnt annular

Katrina was alot stronger than Daniel she was at 175 Rita was even more insane at 180 with a 895 mb pressure Wilma i'll let 882 mb pressure speak for itself.Wilma makes Daniel look like a TS