Hurricane Daniel (05E) in CPAC

[superfly]

Katrina was alot stronger than Daniel she was at 175 Rita was even more insane at 180 with a 895 mb pressure Wilma i'll let 882 mb pressure speak for itself.Wilma makes Daniel look like a TS

Daniel's winds are only estimates. If you will remember, Katrina and Wilma's winds and pressure were both lowballed until recon actually went in there. I believe they had both as cat 3 until recon confirmed cat 5 winds.

[Jim Cantore]

It's all about recon, gotta have that recon baby!

[Epsilon_Fan]

daniel is staight up badass right now... I seriously can't believe he hasn't been classifid at Cat5

[mtm4319]

The bright reds have now formed a near-unbroken ring:



I doubt the NHC will upgrade this to cat 5, even if it maintains this look until the next advisory -- but it sure looks pretty close to one to me.

[mtm4319]

about 1700 miles ESE of Hilo Hawaii

I don't like the latest trends from the storm or the models. I am far mroe concerned about Daniel than I am tht disorganized mess in the GOM

The forecast still shows it going north of Hawaii, but even if it nears the islands, will it still be a serious threat? The latest potential minimum central pressure maps indicate the waters off Hawaii could only support a storm around 975mb. However, the theoretical potential max wind there is borderline cat 2/3, so I'm not sure how accurate this is. But SSTs appear to be well below 26C there anyway.

[CrazyC83]

My guess for the real intensity: 145 knots (165 mph), 923 mb.

[marcane_1973]

My guess for the real intensity: 145 knots (165 mph), 923 mb.

No doubt. It doesn't take an experienced weather person to know that this is a cat 5. The satellite photo on infrared tells it all. Daniel looks like Isabel at her peak and also has the same characteristics as Andrew. A tight little classic buzz saw cat5 storm that would produce F4 or f5 tornado damage in her awesome eyewall.

[CrazyC83]

Daniel's eyewall is starting to look like Katrina's beautiful &evil

Thankfully, only poor fish colonies have to deal with his 20 foot storm surge and monster winds...

If that was "Danielle" and not "Daniel", we'd have an incredibly serious situation on our hands though...

[CrazyC83]

My guess for the real intensity: 145 knots (165 mph), 923 mb.

No doubt. It doesn't take an experienced weather person to know that this is a cat 5. The satellite photo on infrared tells it all. Daniel looks like Isabel at her peak and also has the same characteristics as Andrew. A tight little classic buzz saw cat5 storm that would produce F4 or f5 tornado damage in her awesome eyewall.

His small size and lack of a pinhole eye would keep the pressure relatively high though, similar to Andrew and Emily (and unlike Katrina or Rita, which were much larger, or Wilma or Gilbert which pinholed their way down). Hence, I think the pressure is in the mid-920s. The 923 might have been a low estimate, it could really be 923-927.

However that still means the winds are really Category 5 due to its appearance.

[Cyclenall]

Yeah, this is a category 5 hurricane. It would be silly for the NHC not to call it one since they cannot hide it any longer. If only the sent in a recon, we would know for sure there is a CAT5 monster. I said my thoughts on the other page but now it's looking close to 145 knots instead of 140 Knots by me. Unreal hurricane.

[Grease Monkey]

WTPZ45 KNHC 212034
TCDEP5
HURRICANE DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 22 (FINAL ADVISORY)
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052006
10:30 PM PDT FRI JUL 21 2006

MYSTERIOUSLY THE CYCLONE HAS BEGUN TO WEAKEN AT AN EXTREMELY FAST RATE...
LAST FEW FRAMES FROM SATELLITE IMAGERY NO LONGER SHOW A WELL-DEFINED EYE SURROUNDED BY SYMMETRIC RING OF DEEP CONVECTION..LIKE THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. DANIEL IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WEAKENING AND TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

[HurricaneHunter914]

He really does look like a Cat-5 hurricane right now. In fact he and Isabel almost look alike. IMO He is tied with Isabel for the best looking Annular Hurricane.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I got a bridge in new york city to give a forecaster that thinks this is not a cat5,,,,This sucker is as strong as Isabel or Katrina.

[benny]

Here are my thoughts right now:

I think Hurricane Daniel is a category 5 hurricane right now. There is no way this can be a 130 Knot hurricane, it's unreal. CrazyC83 once again was right, he predicted a CAT5. I'm looking at all the pics and the cold cloud tops and the strength IMO is at 140 Knots right now. I can't believe that this is in the Eastern Pacific...

Also, now I believe it's the 2nd best looking tropical cyclone I have ever seen. Sorry Hurricane Isabel, you lose! jk. It's tied with Cyclone Monica currently.

What else can I say? Just a super crazy hurricane. Best looking TC in the EPAC ever IMO as well.

ODTs were over 7 with Isabel... cloud tops haven't gotten as cold in Daniel. Let's not go over the top yet. Beautiful yes. Isabel strength... not on the basis of satellite only.

[HurricaneHunter914]

Looking at satellite, Daniel definitly looks like a Cat-5, I mean have you ever seen an Annular Hurricane other than Isabel that looked so beautiful. Honestly Daniel is the first Annular Major Hurricane I have seen on SAT in person.

[benny]

My guess for the real intensity: 145 knots (165 mph), 923 mb.

No doubt. It doesn't take an experienced weather person to know that this is a cat 5. The satellite photo on infrared tells it all. Daniel looks like Isabel at her peak and also has the same characteristics as Andrew. A tight little classic buzz saw cat5 storm that would produce F4 or f5 tornado damage in her awesome eyewall.

Any proof here? You can shoot your mouth off all you want.. but if the satellite estimates aren't showing Cat 5... why would NHC make it Cat 5? Is there anything besides mere speculation? Isabel at her peak was stronger than this.. there were a couple of T7.0 subjective classifications easily made. That -70C band has to be 30 nm wide to count with the warm eye to be a 7.0. I'll grant you that it looks like 135 kt to me... I sincerely doubt they just go off upgrading things to Cat 5 without a shred of evidence that it is.

[HurricaneHunter914]

How about Hurricane Emily of last year, I mean she didn't have as as good as a SAT presentation as Daniel, but she was upgraded.

[benny]

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/adt/odt8.html

classifications never got above 6.8.. though it held there for several hours. 135 kt seems good to me unless that white (or -70c) band gets thicker

[benny]

How about Hurricane Emily of last year, I mean she didn't have as as good as a SAT presentation as Daniel, but she was upgraded.

There was recon though that showed Emily was stronger than satellite. Hurricane Jeanne of 2004 looked a lot stronger on satellite than recon showed it to be. Gotta use what you have! Hurricane Keith of 2000 never caught up to its satellite intensity either if I recall...

[HurricaneHunter914]

If only the EPAC had there own Recon, but the Pacific is so wide that it would take them more than day to get to Daniel.