Severe Tropical Storm Kaemi (06W) Made Landfall in China

#41 Postby **cycloneye** » Fri Jul 21, 2006 4:08 pm

TYPHOON 06W (KAEMI) WARNING NR 016
WTPN31 PGTW 212100
1. TYPHOON 06W (KAEMI) WARNING NR 016
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
211800Z --- NEAR 16.4N 130.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.4N 130.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 17.1N 129.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 18.0N 127.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 19.0N 125.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 20.1N 124.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 22.2N 121.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 23.8N 118.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 27.0N 115.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
212100Z POSITION NEAR 16.6N 130.3E.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 211800Z IS 30 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 220300Z, 220900Z, 221500Z AND 222100Z.
//
BT
#0001
NNNN

90 kts

#42 Postby **P.K.** » Fri Jul 21, 2006 4:56 pm

75kts, it is still forecast to peak at 80kts soon. The forecast track image is here.

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0605 KAEMI (0605)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 212100UTC 16.5N 130.1E FAIR
MOVE W 10KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 200NM
FORECAST
24HF 222100UTC 18.8N 126.9E 80NM 70%
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
45HF 231800UTC 21.7N 125.1E 150NM 70%
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
69HF 241800UTC 24.7N 122.7E 220NM 70%
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT

#43 Postby **cycloneye** » Fri Jul 21, 2006 10:29 pm

TYPHOON 06W (KAEMI) WARNING NR 017
WTPN31 PGTW 220300
1. TYPHOON 06W (KAEMI) WARNING NR 017
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
220000Z --- NEAR 16.4N 129.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.4N 129.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 16.9N 127.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 18.1N 125.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 19.2N 124.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 20.3N 122.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 22.2N 120.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 24.4N 117.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 27.6N 115.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
220300Z POSITION NEAR 16.5N 129.1E.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220000Z IS 30 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 220900Z, 221500Z, 222100Z AND 230300Z.
//
BT
#0001
NNNN

#44 Postby **P.K.** » Sat Jul 22, 2006 4:54 am

75kts still.

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0605 KAEMI (0605)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 220900UTC 16.9N 128.9E FAIR
MOVE WNW 07KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 075KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 200NM
FORECAST
24HF 230900UTC 19.6N 125.8E 80NM 70%
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
45HF 240600UTC 23.2N 123.5E 150NM 70%
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
69HF 250600UTC 25.0N 120.7E 220NM 70%
MOVE WNW 07KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT

#45 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Jul 22, 2006 5:51 pm

TYPHOON 06W (KAEMI) WARNING NR 020
WTPN31 PGTW 222100
1. TYPHOON 06W (KAEMI) WARNING NR 020
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
221800Z --- NEAR 17.9N 128.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.9N 128.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 19.2N 126.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 20.4N 125.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 21.7N 124.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 22.9N 122.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 24.7N 120.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 27.6N 117.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 31.4N 115.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 015 KT, GUSTS 025 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
222100Z POSITION NEAR 18.2N 127.8E.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 221800Z IS 28 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 230300Z, 230900Z, 231500Z AND 232100Z.
//
BT
#0001
NNNN

#46 Postby **P.K.** » Sat Jul 22, 2006 6:14 pm

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0605 KAEMI (0605)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 222100UTC 18.4N 127.8E FAIR
MOVE NNW 10KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 075KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 200NM
FORECAST
24HF 232100UTC 20.9N 125.4E 80NM 70%
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
45HF 241800UTC 23.1N 123.2E 150NM 70%
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
69HF 251800UTC 25.1N 119.7E 220NM 70%
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT

#47 Postby **P.K.** » Sun Jul 23, 2006 5:45 am

Well it is up to 80kts now as forecast.

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0605 KAEMI (0605)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 230900UTC 19.5N 125.8E FAIR
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 240NM SOUTH 150NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 240900UTC 21.7N 123.4E 80NM 70%
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
45HF 250600UTC 23.2N 120.8E 150NM 70%
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
69HF 260600UTC 25.1N 118.0E 220NM 70%
MOVE WNW 07KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT

#48 Postby **P.K.** » Sun Jul 23, 2006 5:05 pm

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0605 KAEMI (0605)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 232100UTC 20.6N 124.1E FAIR
MOVE W 09KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 260NM SOUTH 150NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 242100UTC 22.6N 121.1E 80NM 70%
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
45HF 251800UTC 23.2N 117.7E 150NM 70%
MOVE W 08KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
69HF 261800UTC 24.5N 113.5E 220NM 70%
MOVE W 10KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT

#49 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Sun Jul 23, 2006 5:08 pm

Due to the recent flooding in China and the Hunan Province this is not a good track for them still dealing with flooding there. My Aunti is from China in the Hunan Province and she got a hold of her dad yesterday but, as of today nothing. I hope this weakens by the time it gets to china.

whereverwx · #50 Postby **whereverwx** » Sun Jul 23, 2006 8:35 pm

As you can see in this 65 hour loop... despite having a large area of -80° C cloud tops, Kaemi looks sheared.

#51 Postby **HURAKAN** » Sun Jul 23, 2006 9:35 pm

whereverwx · #52 Postby **whereverwx** » Sun Jul 23, 2006 9:42 pm

Also, just in case some of you are curious about the pronunciation (I was), it's "gae-mi."

#53 Postby **HURAKAN** » Sun Jul 23, 2006 9:45 pm

Someone that may have a better understanding could correct the statement that I will make. I think it's pretty weird to see how much shear is affecting the Western Pacific almost entering the month of August. Furthermore, for a basin that runs year-around, and averages almost 30 storms per season, so far it has only experienced six (oficially five). They're even behind last season at this time!!!

whereverwx · #54 Postby **whereverwx** » Mon Jul 24, 2006 1:06 pm

The rain over Taiwan must be really intense right now.

#55 Postby **P.K.** » Mon Jul 24, 2006 1:15 pm

HURAKAN wrote:Furthermore, for a basin that runs year-around, and averages almost 30 storms per season, so far it has only experienced six (oficially five). They're even behind last season at this time!!!

The 7th storm last year formed on the 21st July so it is two storms behind. The 8th storm formed on the 29th July. The 1971-2000 average is 8.6 storms up to the end of July, with an average of 26.7 each year.

whereverwx · #56 Postby **whereverwx** » Mon Jul 24, 2006 1:19 pm

Here's a loop that I made of Kaemi's landfall:

#57 Postby **HURAKAN** » Mon Jul 24, 2006 1:20 pm

P.K. wrote:
HURAKAN wrote:Furthermore, for a basin that runs year-around, and averages almost 30 storms per season, so far it has only experienced six (oficially five). They're even behind last season at this time!!!

The 7th storm last year formed on the 21st July so it is two storms behind. The 8th storm formed on the 29th July. The 1971-2000 average is 8.6 storms up to the end of July, with an average of 26.7 each year.

Thanks, I think the problem was that when I began tracking hurricanes/typhoons/tropical cyclones, the WPAC was having an above-normal season, and now that it's has gone normal to me it seems below-normal. Unfortunately Kamei will affect almost the same region afected by Bilis, and we know how much destruction Bilis caused in that region.

#58 Postby **P.K.** » Mon Jul 24, 2006 1:32 pm

Well using the above 30 year average the only season with an above average number of named storms since 2000 was 2004 with 29, although 2001 and 2002 were close at 26 each. A 30 year average up until the end of last year gives an average of 26.2 storms per year.

Here is that forecast path you mention:

#59 Postby **P.K.** » Tue Jul 25, 2006 5:43 am

STS Kaemi has made landfall in China at the same windspeed as STS Bilis did. Landfall over Taiwan was at 65kts.

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 0605 KAEMI (0605)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 250900UTC 24.4N 118.2E GOOD
MOVE W 10KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
50KT 40NM
30KT 220NM SOUTHWEST 170NM NORTHEAST
FORECAST
24HF 260900UTC 26.0N 114.1E 80NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION

#60 Postby **cycloneye** » Tue Jul 25, 2006 7:10 am

Nw let's wait for the reports from China about what occured in the landfalling area.

Severe Tropical Storm Kaemi (06W) Made Landfall in China

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