98L invest,W.GOM,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[cycloneye]

Nothing is looking imminent for development here but there is a tropical wave in the area,with an upper high nearby.So let's see what this area does in the next couple of days to see if it persists or goes poof.I know there area couple of GOM threads,but one was for an area in the NGOM and the other for an area in the straits.

[KatDaddy]

From the Corpus Christi AFD:

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE BOUNDARY MOVING INTO THE REGION WILL LINGER OVER THE
COASTAL BEND ON MONDAY. PREFER THE MOISTURE PROFILE FROM THE GFS
WITH THE NAM APPEARING TO DRY THINGS OUT TOO QUICKLY. A WEAK MID
TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS FOR THE COASTAL
PLAINS ON MONDAY. WILL BE WATCHING THE AREA OF DEEPER MOISTURE
FROM THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO FOR HIGHER RAIN CHANCES TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY. THE NAM AND CANADIAN MODEL SHOW THE POSSIBILITY
OF THE TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE INTO
MEXICO BECOMING ORGANIZED WITH A SURFACE CIRCULATION DEVELOPING BY
12Z MONDAY OFF THE COAST OF VERACRUZ. WITH THE SYSTEM SO CLOSE TO
LAND AND SOME SHEAR ALOFT...DO NOT EXPECT IT TO BECOME ORGANIZED.
BUT THE DEEPER MOISTURE WITH THIS TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
MORE TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST BY TUESDAY AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY
OF THE UPPER RIDGE. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES SHOULD BE ABOVE 2
INCHES BY TUESDAY AND THE GFS SHOWS PWS AROUND 2.4 BY WEDNESDAY
OVER THE COASTAL BEND.

[Thunder44]

Dr. Lyons on TWC was just talking about this area in his tropical update. He said it needs to be watched because there high pressure ridge building aloft over there.

[wxwatcher91]

Station 42055 - Bay of Campeche
Owned and maintained by National Data Buoy Center
12-meter discus buoy
ARES payload
22.01 N 94.05 W (22°01'02" N 94°02'45" W)

Site elevation: sea level
Air temp height: 10 m above site elevation
Anemometer height: 10 m above site elevation
Barometer elevation: sea level
Sea temp depth: 1 m below site elevation
Water depth: 3,380.5 m
Watch circle radius: 3,131 yards

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42055

Conditions at 42055 as of
(6:50 am CDT)
1150 GMT on 07/22/2006:

winds gusting to 13.6kts
pressure at 29.90in

[wxman57]

The wave axis appears to already be in the western BoC with convection firing east of the axis. Since it's moving westward at 15-20 kts, there won't be much time left for development. Winds aloft won't be favorable for development down there for another 3-4 days, so development chances seem quite remote.

I'd be more concerned about the east-west trof across the central Gulf. The wave axis was what kicked off convection over western Cuba and Florida yesterday. It moved west of the central Gulf low/trof now, but that central Gulf area is the place to watch for thunderstorm development.

[Dean4Storms]

The wave axis appears to already be in the western BoC with convection firing east of the axis. Since it's moving westward at 15-20 kts, there won't be much time left for development. Winds aloft won't be favorable for development down there for another 3-4 days, so development chances seem quite remote.

I'd be more concerned about the east-west trof across the central Gulf. The wave axis was what kicked off convection over western Cuba and Florida yesterday. It moved west of the central Gulf low/trof now, but that central Gulf area is the place to watch for thunderstorm development.

I agree, the trough across the Gulf is the place for keeping an eye if convection blossoms and persists.

[Thunder44]

Tropical Weather Outlook

Statement as of 11:30 am EDT on July 22, 2006


For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico...
A tropical wave is producing an area of showers and thunderstorms
over the Bay of Campeche and the extreme southwestern Gulf of
Mexico. Upper-level winds are currently unfavorable for any rapid
development of this system to occur. However...conditions are
expected to become a little more conducive for some gradual
development as the system moves slowly northwestward over the next
couple of days. Locally heavy rainfall will be possible along the
coast of Mexico...especially over mountainnous terrain... from Vera
Cruz northward to Tampico.

Elsewhere...tropical storm formation is not expected through Sunday.
$$
Forecaster Stewart

[Extremeweatherguy]

If anything does develop, it will probably be shunted NE as it approaches the TX coast because of a front that is coming south. This could potentially be a threat to the northern Gulf coast. I just hope nothing hits Houston while i'm away, because if something is suppose to, I may have to get back their quickly to prepare.

[cycloneye]

ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL INVEST AT
24/1800Z NEAR 22.0N 096.0W.


I thought this was posted already but anyway here is the info about a possible mission to this area in the BOC on the 24th at 2 PM EDT.

[Thunder44]

I've actually been waiting for the schedule to come out Luis. It just came out now.

[cycloneye]

I've actually been waiting for the schedule to come out Luis. It just came out now.

Oh ok.

[Kerry04]

cycloneye do u think anything will come out of this?

[cycloneye]

cycloneye do u think anything will come out of this?

Persistance and timing are the two words here.Perststance in terms of convection sustain for a period of 24 hours and timing in terms of the system getting inland before it has the chance to develop.

[wxwatcher91]

889
SXXX50 KNHC 221808
AF309 WXWXA 06072215309 HDOB 17 KNHC
1800. 3400N 09830W 00255 0040 360 000 316 144 000 00297 0000000000
1801 3400N 09830W 00255 0041 360 000 316 144 000 00298 0000000000
1801. 3400N 09830W 00255 0041 360 000 316 144 000 00298 0000000000
1802 3400N 09830W 00255 0040 360 000 318 144 000 00297 0000000000
1802. 3400N 09830W 00255 0041 360 000 320 144 000 00298 0000000000
1803 3400N 09830W 00255 0042 360 000 312 144 000 00299 0000000000
1803. 3400N 09830W 00256 0040 360 000 318 144 000 00298 0000000000
1804 3400N 09830W 00256 0039 360 000 324 142 000 00297 0000000000
1804. 3400N 09830W 00256 0038 360 000 324 140 000 00296 0000000000
1805 3400N 09830W 00256 0039 360 000 324 140 000 00297 0000000000
1805. 3400N 09830W 00254 0041 360 000 312 134 000 00297 0000000000
1806 3400N 09830W 00254 0041 360 000 296 130 000 00297 0000000000
1806. 3400N 09830W 00255 0039 360 000 304 126 000 00295 0000000000
1807 3400N 09830W 00256 0037 360 000 306 128 000 00296 0000000000
1807. 3400N 09830W 00256 0038 360 000 308 128 000 00296 0000000000
1808 3400N 09830W 00255 0038 360 000 310 130 000 00295 0000000000
1808. 3400N 09830W 00254 0039 360 000 310 130 000 00294 0000000000
1809 3359N 09830W 00254 0038 360 000 308 130 000 00295 0000000000
1809. 3359N 09830W 00258 0035 360 000 318 132 000 00296 0000000000
1810 3359N 09830W 00256 0038 360 000 306 132 000 00296 0000000000
;


is there a recon thread for the storm?

[cycloneye]

889
SXXX50 KNHC 221808
AF309 WXWXA 06072215309 HDOB 17 KNHC
1800. 3400N 09830W 00255 0040 360 000 316 144 000 00297 0000000000
1801 3400N 09830W 00255 0041 360 000 316 144 000 00298 0000000000
1801. 3400N 09830W 00255 0041 360 000 316 144 000 00298 0000000000
1802 3400N 09830W 00255 0040 360 000 318 144 000 00297 0000000000
1802. 3400N 09830W 00255 0041 360 000 320 144 000 00298 0000000000
1803 3400N 09830W 00255 0042 360 000 312 144 000 00299 0000000000
1803. 3400N 09830W 00256 0040 360 000 318 144 000 00298 0000000000
1804 3400N 09830W 00256 0039 360 000 324 142 000 00297 0000000000
1804. 3400N 09830W 00256 0038 360 000 324 140 000 00296 0000000000
1805 3400N 09830W 00256 0039 360 000 324 140 000 00297 0000000000
1805. 3400N 09830W 00254 0041 360 000 312 134 000 00297 0000000000
1806 3400N 09830W 00254 0041 360 000 296 130 000 00297 0000000000
1806. 3400N 09830W 00255 0039 360 000 304 126 000 00295 0000000000
1807 3400N 09830W 00256 0037 360 000 306 128 000 00296 0000000000
1807. 3400N 09830W 00256 0038 360 000 308 128 000 00296 0000000000
1808 3400N 09830W 00255 0038 360 000 310 130 000 00295 0000000000
1808. 3400N 09830W 00254 0039 360 000 310 130 000 00294 0000000000
1809 3359N 09830W 00254 0038 360 000 308 130 000 00295 0000000000
1809. 3359N 09830W 00258 0035 360 000 318 132 000 00296 0000000000
1810 3359N 09830W 00256 0038 360 000 306 132 000 00296 0000000000
;


is there a recon thread for the storm?

That is a training mission very very far from the BOC.

[Ivanhater]

Wow, we go from no development expected to recon in just a few hours..Why is this not an invest, I thought if recon went in they have it as an invest since they are "investigating" it

[P.K.]

is there a recon thread for the storm?

WXWXA is the header for a training mission.

[Dean4Storms]

I think that if there is anything worthwhile developing in the Gulf it would begin to develop early next week coming from the tail end of this next trough nearing the Gulf coast.

The system in the BOC won't have much time to develop into much before it goes into Mexico.

[cycloneye]

Wow, we go from no development expected to recon in just a few hours..Why is this not an invest, I thought if recon went in they have it as an invest since they are "investigating" it

For the 24th around 2 PM is a possible mission.It can be canceled as we know if the system does not organize.

[wxwatcher91]

oh sorry...
I guess I also kinda missed that bit about it being on the 24th...

IMO it's looking pretty good right now... of course it doesnt have much time to develop where it is