TD #2 officially now downgraded to a strong tropical wave

[Stormsfury]

As expected, TD #2 has been downgraded to a strong tropical wave per NHC ...

A combination of factors - including climatology, dry air, shear, and marginal SST's have combined to de-generate the earliest CV depression back into a tropical wave ...

This had been expected to happen, but it took place 36 hours later than expected, and the tropical depression took advantage of a small window of opportunity, making weather history once again for the year 2003...

[Derecho]

Actually, unless a TD is stationary or moving very slowly, it's very difficult for any TD moving at the usual 10+ kt clip to actually have a closed circ and meet the formal definition of a TD; it moves west faster than the winds move from west to east on the south side.

The last two QS passes were missed before NHC started advisories, unfortunately, or advisories never may have been started.

Oddly it's about to move into siginificantly warmer SSTs and both the large ULL to the North and the smaller one north of Hispaniola have started pulling north faster in the last few hours, so it does have a chance at"regeneration" (actually "generation.")

[Stormsfury]

Actually, unless a TD is stationary or moving very slowly, it's very difficult for any TD moving at the usual 10+ kt clip to actually have a closed circ and meet the formal definition of a TD; it moves west faster than the winds move from west to east on the south side.

The last two QS passes were missed before NHC started advisories, unfortunately, or advisories never may have been started.

Oddly it's about to move into siginificantly warmer SSTs and both the large ULL to the North and the smaller one north of Hispaniola have started pulling north faster in the last few hours, so it does have a chance at"regeneration" (actually "generation.")

I noticed that stronger ULL winds earlier were pulling a little away from the wave a little faster than I thought they would also.

Also, I have to somewhat agree also about the classification of TD #2 ... only satellite interpretation ... and no actual "confirmed" data or ship reports for that area confirmed any westerly winds ...

[Anonymous]

I still don't see the large trough over the eastern Caribbean pulling away within just a few days. While regeneration is always possible, I don't think its all that likely. I never knew a 12 hour TD could give me such a headache.

[Anonymous]

I updated the final discussion...unless the TD can perform another miracle. :o

[Stormsfury]

I never knew a 12 hour TD could give me such a headache.

*LOL* - You and me both.

unless the TD can perform another miracle. :o

If it does, I'll need to get another bottle of Tylenol...*LOL*

[Typhoon_Willie]

and see if this system makes progress into the Western Caribbean. Maybe conditions there are more favorable for development

[Anonymous]

Conditions across the entire Caribbean are rather unfavorable for tc formation. A small positive phase (surpressing) of the MJO has also developed over the region. Last time I checked, the GFS showed a decrease in shear, but the shear was expected to return not too long after that. I will try to view some of the models and sat data and post a quick update tomorrow morning if I have time.

LOL SF!

[vbhoutex]

I am not predicting anything here, but I say

NEVER SAY NEVER!!!!
especially when you are talking about the tropics. We've already been fooled once by this puppy!!!

[wx247]

Well... it is was interesting while it lasted. We will have to see if it will regenerate, but the chances look slim.

[Guest]

Yep its a gonner..............The last WV loop i just looked at says it all..............It was a nice little suprise though..............And i very seriously doubt it will make a comeback..............It would take a miracle for that to happen................Either way nice job done by everyone here (Members and Storm2K forecasters!) on the updates!..............

[GulfBreezer]

VB, LOL!!
I truly believe this is going to definitely be the year of "never say never"! We will see more than our share of surprises this year! We should all be careful when using the words "never, definitely, positive, no possible way and many others we have used before to get our points across! Heads up everyone and fasten your seatbelts.............LET'S GO FOR A RIDE!

[vbhoutex]

VB, LOL!!
I truly believe this is going to definitely be the year of "never say never"! We will see more than our share of surprises this year! We should all be careful when using the words "never, definitely, positive, no possible way and many others we have used before to get our points across! Heads up everyone and fasten your seatbelts.............LET'S GO FOR A RIDE!

What is going to be "fun" and challenging is determining what kind of "ride" we will be on!!! Is it going to be a "kiddie" type roller coaster or a screaming fast roller coaster with numerous loops, steep hills, and tight curves to throw us to the limits of our abilities?

As you say, hold on for the ride!!! It is bound to be an interesting one!!

[southerngale]

We're not just making history in 2003 with the weather...check out my MLB thread in the Sports forum.

[PTrackerLA]

I can only imagine what things will be like when the season "really" starts!

[Rainband]

Like a rollercoaster ride!!!!