Tropical Depression Emilia (06E) in EPAC=Last Advisory

[HurricaneBill]

recon is also cent out for CPAC systems

If Daniel trend sto the west, as some of the latest models are suggesting, it would likely result in the deployment of some of the places at Keesler at Honolulu

Derek do they send out recon if a typhoon is threatening Guam?

[cycloneye]

651
WTPZ41 KNHC 220249
TCDEP1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062006
800 PM PDT FRI JUL 21 2006

THE FINAL VISIBLE IMAGES OF THE EVENING SHOW THE CENTER OF THE
DEPRESSION TO THE NORTHEAST OF A SMALL BUT INTENSE AREA OF
THUNDERSTORMS. CIRRUS CLOUDS ARE SEEN RAPIDLY MOVING FROM
NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST IN THE CYCLONE'S ENVIRONMENT... A SIGN OF
THE NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR. DVORAK ESTIMATES DO SUPPORT A SMALL
INCREASE IN STRENGTH DUE TO THE CLOSENESS OF THE CENTER TO THE DEEP
CONVECTION...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS NOW 30 KT.

COMPUTER MODELS DIFFER ON HOW MUCH THE SHEAR WILL RELAX OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. SHIPS... OFF THE GFS FIELDS... SHOWS A
LESSENING OF THE SHEAR WITHIN 24 HOURS AND CONSQUENTLY BRINGS
THE DEPRESSION TO NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 2 DAYS. THE UKMET ALSO
SHOWS THE SHEAR DECREASING IN A DAY OR SO. HOWEVER... THE GFDL HAS
A MORE PESSIMISTIC VIEW...WITH THE CYCLONE BARELY REACHING STORM
INTENSITY IN 48 HOURS. THE NOGAPS ALSO KEEPS THE SHEARING
CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY ON
HOW QUICKLY THE SHEAR MAY RELAX...ONLY A SLOW INTENSIFICATION IS
SHOWN. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND
USES A BLEND OF THE GFDL/SHIPS GUIDANCE.

THE PAST 6-12 HOUR MOTION HAS BEEN NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD... ABOUT
340/6. THE CYCLONE SHOULD TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND ACCELERATE A
LITTLE WITHIN 24 HOURS AS IT BUTTS UP AGAINST A MIDDLE-LEVEL RIDGE
OVER MEXICO. THE FORECAST IS MOST SIMILAR TO THE NOGAPS... WHICH
APPEARS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE INITIAL POSITION OF THE
DEPRESSION AND A REASONABLE EVOLUTION OF THE FORECAST FIELDS.
BEYOND 72 HOURS...I AM HESITANT TO SHOW ANY TURN MORE TO THE
NORTH...LIKE THE GFDL SHOWS...GIVEN THE GLOBAL MODELS' FORECAST OF
STRONG RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES. IT IS ALSO RATHER
RARE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES TO AFFECT BAJA CALIFORNIA IN JULY.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 22/0300Z 13.4N 103.5W 30 KT
12HR VT 22/1200Z 14.1N 104.0W 35 KT
24HR VT 23/0000Z 15.4N 105.4W 35 KT
36HR VT 23/1200Z 16.3N 107.0W 40 KT
48HR VT 24/0000Z 17.3N 108.5W 45 KT
72HR VT 25/0000Z 19.0N 111.0W 50 KT
96HR VT 26/0000Z 20.5N 113.5W 50 KT
120HR VT 27/0000Z 22.5N 116.0W 50 KT

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/FRANKLIN

[bombarderoazul]

Emilia coming soon.

[Epsilon_Fan]

as long as Daniel keeps spinning out there this depression is going to get no love!

[CrazyC83]

as long as Daniel keeps spinning out there this depression is going to get no love!

Even if the much weaker Emilia is the much greater threat to land...unless of course Daniel makes it all the way to Hawaii...

[HurricaneHunter914]

Unfortunatly Daniel is getting more attention from me than TD #6 is.

[clfenwi]

WHXX01 KMIA 220642
CHGE77

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL STORM EMILIA (EP062006) ON 20060722 0600 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060722 0600 060722 1800 060723 0600 060723 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 13.5N 103.7W 14.4N 105.6W 15.4N 107.3W 16.5N 108.8W
BAMM 13.5N 103.7W 14.8N 105.4W 16.0N 107.0W 17.3N 108.6W
LBAR 13.5N 103.7W 14.5N 104.9W 15.9N 106.5W 17.1N 108.1W
SHIP 35KTS 39KTS 45KTS 52KTS
DSHP 35KTS 39KTS 45KTS 52KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060724 0600 060725 0600 060726 0600 060727 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 17.5N 110.1W 20.0N 112.9W 22.6N 115.7W 25.3N 117.9W
BAMM 18.5N 110.3W 20.6N 114.1W 22.5N 118.4W 24.2N 122.2W
LBAR 18.3N 109.8W 21.3N 112.6W 24.5N 115.1W 26.9N 116.8W
SHIP 61KTS 72KTS 72KTS 60KTS
DSHP 61KTS 72KTS 72KTS 60KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 13.5N LONCUR = 103.7W DIRCUR = 330DEG SPDCUR = 6KT
LATM12 = 12.5N LONM12 = 103.1W DIRM12 = 342DEG SPDM12 = 6KT
LATM24 = 11.7N LONM24 = 102.9W
WNDCUR = 35KT RMAXWD = 25NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1004MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 160NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 50NM RD34SE = 50NM RD34SW = 50NM RD34NW = 50NM

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
22/0545 UTC 13.5N 103.8W T3.0/3.0 06E
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


SSD upped their estimate to 3.0, and TAFB concurred... hence Emilia!

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Thank god!!!

[clfenwi]

WTPZ41 KNHC 220832
TCDEP1
TROPICAL STORM EMILIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062006
200 AM PDT SAT JUL 22 2006

INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT A LARGE BURST OF CONVECTION
HAS DEVELOPED NEAR OR JUST WEST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER...WITH
CLOUD TOPS NEAR -85C. WHILE A SSM/I OVERPASS AT 0232Z SHOWS THAT
THE CYCLONE IS STILL SHEARED...SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE
NOW 45 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND 30 KT FROM AFWA. BASED ON
THIS...TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E IS UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM
EMILIA WITH 35-KT WINDS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 330/6. LARGE-SCALE MODEL
ANALYSES AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATE THAT EMILIA IS ON THE
SOUTHEAST SIDE OF A MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER
NORTHWESTERN MEXICO. DUE TO THIS...MOST OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE
CALLS FOR A GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. ONE EXCEPTION TO THIS IS THE
GFS...WHICH TURNS EMILIA MORE WESTWARD AND IS THE LEFT OUTLIER OF
THE TRACK FORECAST MODELS. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS THE
CONSENSUS OF THE OTHER GUIDANCE...CALLING FOR A GENERALLY
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS AND IS AN UPDATE OF THE
PREVIOUS TRACK. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE THE GFS
SOLUTION CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

ANALYSES FROM CIMSS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN SHOW THAT EMILIA
IS UNDER 20-25 KT OF EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THIS SHOULD AT
LEAST SLOW INTENSIFICATION IN THE SHORT-TERM. THE LARGE-SCALE
MODELS FORECAST THE SHEAR TO GRADUALLY DECREASE DURING THE NEXT 3
DAYS...WHICH IF CORRECT SHOULD ALLOW GRADUAL STRENGTHENING. THE
GFDL MODEL CALLS FOR EMILIA TO PEAK AT 50 KT IN 48 HR...WHILE THE
SHIPS MODEL CALLS FOR IT TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN ABOUT 72 HR. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR SLOW INTENSIFICATION TO JUST UNDER
HURRICANE STRENGTH BY 72 HR...FOLLOWED BY WEAKENING OVER COOLER SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES BY 120 HR. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS A
LITTLE STRONGER THAN THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 22/0900Z 13.8N 104.0W 35 KT
12HR VT 22/1800Z 14.6N 104.9W 40 KT
24HR VT 23/0600Z 15.8N 106.4W 45 KT
36HR VT 23/1800Z 16.8N 108.0W 50 KT
48HR VT 24/0600Z 17.7N 109.4W 55 KT
72HR VT 25/0600Z 19.5N 112.0W 60 KT
96HR VT 26/0600Z 21.0N 114.5W 60 KT
120HR VT 27/0600Z 23.0N 117.0W 50 KT

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[HURAKAN]

Seems to be struggling this morning.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM EMILIA (EP062006) ON 20060722 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060722 1200 060723 0000 060723 1200 060724 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 14.9N 104.3W 15.7N 106.1W 16.4N 107.7W 17.1N 109.0W
BAMM 14.9N 104.3W 15.9N 106.2W 16.8N 107.8W 17.6N 109.4W
LBAR 14.9N 104.3W 16.4N 105.8W 17.7N 107.4W 18.9N 108.8W
SHIP 35KTS 38KTS 44KTS 54KTS
DSHP 35KTS 38KTS 44KTS 54KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060724 1200 060725 1200 060726 1200 060727 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 17.9N 110.4W 20.1N 113.4W 22.6N 117.0W 25.0N 120.2W
BAMM 18.3N 111.1W 19.8N 114.8W 21.5N 119.0W 23.2N 122.9W
LBAR 19.9N 110.3W 22.5N 112.6W 25.1N 115.0W 27.8N 116.1W
SHIP 63KTS 74KTS 71KTS 59KTS
DSHP 63KTS 74KTS 71KTS 59KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 14.9N LONCUR = 104.3W DIRCUR = 335DEG SPDCUR = 13KT
LATM12 = 13.1N LONM12 = 103.4W DIRM12 = 330DEG SPDM12 = 7KT
LATM24 = 11.9N LONM24 = 103.0W
WNDCUR = 35KT RMAXWD = 25NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1004MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 160NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 30NM RD34NW = 0NM



Yes Sandy,still at 35kts per models.Shear is still blowing from the east preventing Emilia to get stronger for now.

[Derek Ortt]

recon does not fly into Guam typhoons

[HURAKAN]

The center now completely devoid of convection. Shear is really kicking!

[Thunder44]

Tropical Storm Emilia Discussion Number 5

Statement as of 8:00 am PDT on July 22, 2006



during the past 6 hours...conventional and microwave satellite
imagery indicate Emilia has experienced some moderate northeasterly
shear which had displaced the deepest convection to the southwest
of the low-level center. However...convection in the southwestern
quadrant has made a comeback during the past couple of hours...and
several narrow convective bands have also developed in the
northeastern semicircle. Given the recent and expected convective
redevelopment trend...the intensity is being held at 35 kt assuming
that tropical storm force winds exist in the southwestern quadrant.

Using a 12-hour trend...the initial motion is 335/12. The actual
past 6-hour motion has been closer to 15 kt due to Emilia having
lost some vertical extent when the convection briefly weakened.
However...the vertical shear is expected to decrease to less than 5
kt by 24 hours...which should allow more central convection and a
deeper vortex to redevelop. This should cause Emilia to be steered
more westward by the subtropical ridge located over Mexico. The big
concern is exactly when Emilia will become a more vertically deep
cyclone. If central deep convection does not redevelop within the
next 12 hours...then a more shallow storm could slide to the east
of the official forecast track and move closer to the west-central
Mexican coast... possibly bringing tropical storm force winds very
close to that area. The official forecast track is well to the
right or east of the previous forecast...and is along the right
side of the NHC model guidance envelope.
The low shear environment that Emilia is forecast to move into after
24 hours would normally favor significant intensification. However
...Light-moderate east to southeasterly 300 mb winds are forecast to
undercut the otherwise favorable 200 mb outflow pattern...so only
modest strengthening is forecast...which is a blend of the lower
GFDL forecast and the higher SHIPS intensity model forecast.
However...if the 300 mb wind flow remains weaker than expected...
then Emilia could become a hurricane in 48 hours. The size of the
wind radii were trimmed back somewhat since Emilia has not yet
intensified and become as organized as previously expected.

Forecast positions and Max winds

initial 22/1500z 15.3n 104.6w 35 kt
12hr VT 23/0000z 16.4n 105.5w 40 kt
24hr VT 23/1200z 17.5n 107.0w 45 kt
36hr VT 24/0000z 18.3n 108.2w 50 kt
48hr VT 24/1200z 18.9n 109.4w 60 kt
72hr VT 25/1200z 20.4n 111.4w 60 kt
96hr VT 26/1200z 22.3n 113.8w 50 kt
120hr VT 27/1200z 24.5n 116.0w 40 kt

$$
forecaster Stewart

[AnnularCane]

She's not taking that shear lying down!

[cycloneye]

PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. TROPICAL STORM EMILIA:
FLIGHT ONE
A. 23/1800Z
B. AFXXX 0106E EMILIA
C. 23/1300Z
D. 19.5N 105.5W
E. 23/1700Z TO 23/2100Z
F. SFC TO 10,000FT


FLIGHT TWO
A. 24/0600Z
B. AFXXX 0206E EMILIA
C. 24/0100Z
D. 20.5N 106.5W
E. 24/0500Z TO 24/0900Z
F. SFC TO 10,000FT


http://asp1.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/tro ... OUS42.KNHC

Someone asked about if recon flys to EPAC systems.Here is a yes as they will fly into Emilia starting tommorow.

[Thunder44]

I didn't think they would waste a flight out there for a TS

[Cyclenall]

They should fly into Daniel while they are at it. Did they do the same for Aletta?

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM EMILIA (EP062006) ON 20060722 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060722 1800 060723 0600 060723 1800 060724 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 16.0N 104.5W 16.8N 106.2W 17.6N 107.6W 18.4N 108.9W
BAMM 16.0N 104.5W 17.1N 106.3W 18.0N 107.9W 18.8N 109.7W
LBAR 16.0N 104.5W 17.3N 105.5W 18.6N 106.9W 19.8N 108.5W
SHIP 40KTS 47KTS 56KTS 65KTS
DSHP 40KTS 47KTS 56KTS 65KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060724 1800 060725 1800 060726 1800 060727 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 19.4N 110.4W 21.7N 113.6W 24.3N 116.8W 26.6N 119.3W
BAMM 19.6N 111.7W 21.0N 115.7W 22.7N 119.7W 24.5N 123.3W
LBAR 21.0N 109.9W 23.7N 112.7W 26.4N 114.6W 28.3N 115.8W
SHIP 73KTS 79KTS 71KTS 57KTS
DSHP 73KTS 79KTS 71KTS 57KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 16.0N LONCUR = 104.5W DIRCUR = 350DEG SPDCUR = 11KT
LATM12 = 13.8N LONM12 = 103.7W DIRM12 = 334DEG SPDM12 = 10KT
LATM24 = 12.5N LONM24 = 103.1W
WNDCUR = 40KT RMAXWD = 20NM WNDM12 = 35KT
CENPRS = 1002MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 160NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 30NM RD34SE = 30NM RD34SW = 30NM RD34NW = 30NM



The winds haved been bumped up to 40kts.

[WindRunner]

Well, so much for recon getting a break! That's three missions over the next two days that they have scheduled . . .