98L invest,W.GOM,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

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Ivanhater
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#21 Postby Ivanhater » Sat Jul 22, 2006 1:33 pm

cycloneye wrote:
Ivanhater wrote:Wow, we go from no development expected to recon in just a few hours..Why is this not an invest, I thought if recon went in they have it as an invest since they are "investigating" it


For the 24th around 2 PM is a possible mission.It can be canceled as we know if the system does not organize.


Ya, but if they are scheduling a possible flight , you would think they would put it as an invest.
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#22 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jul 22, 2006 1:36 pm

Ivanhater wrote:
cycloneye wrote:
Ivanhater wrote:Wow, we go from no development expected to recon in just a few hours..Why is this not an invest, I thought if recon went in they have it as an invest since they are "investigating" it


For the 24th around 2 PM is a possible mission.It can be canceled as we know if the system does not organize.


Ya, but if they are scheduling a possible flight , you would think they would put it as an invest.


Yes,an invest always is up before a mission goes to system.Being the possible mission on the 24th,they can wait until tomorrow to get the invest up.But it can be up earlier if organization starts to unfold from this afternoon or evening.
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#23 Postby HurricaneHunter914 » Sat Jul 22, 2006 1:41 pm

Come on Chris, we need a third named storm.
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#24 Postby HurricaneHunter914 » Sat Jul 22, 2006 1:48 pm

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... wg8sht.GIF

Shear won't be a problem if this does develop. Isn't it weird how the NHC said that conditions aren't favorable for rapid development? if conditions do become favorable, that would mean rapid development could happen with this wave.
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#25 Postby KatDaddy » Sat Jul 22, 2006 1:48 pm

More fuel for the fire.

Here is the latest from todays HPC Disc:

...TROPICS...
AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IN THE SWRN GLFMEX SHOWING POTENTIAL FOR
CLOSE IN TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT. DAY 3 POSITION OF SFC LOW NEAR BRO
COORDINATED
WITH TPC. SEE LATEST TPC DISCUSSIONS.
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#26 Postby Aric Dunn » Sat Jul 22, 2006 1:54 pm

OK would everyone like to know what going on at this moment........ in the BOC its really intresting and nobody even is paying attention.. but the NHC see's it

it has talken a little while to find the data but i will present it.... ??
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#27 Postby HurricaneHunter914 » Sat Jul 22, 2006 2:15 pm

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atl ... BW_sm3.gif

In the next 24 hrs, there is a Tropical Storm forecasted but I'm not sure if this is in the Epac or in the Atlantic.
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#28 Postby Aric Dunn » Sat Jul 22, 2006 2:18 pm

huh?
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#29 Postby gatorcane » Sat Jul 22, 2006 2:19 pm

The BOC system is so close to land, it *shouldnt* have time to amount to much - maybe a TD or a weak TS....

I could be wrong of course :wink:

Systems in the EPAC are more of a threat to the US than this thing
Last edited by gatorcane on Sat Jul 22, 2006 2:21 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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#30 Postby Stratosphere747 » Sat Jul 22, 2006 2:20 pm

The forecasted storm is Emilla.....

Nothing is shown for the mess in the BOC...
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#31 Postby Aric Dunn » Sat Jul 22, 2006 2:21 pm

So the ? is does anyone notice what is down there right now....... and the possible reason the NHC has come forth so suddenly
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#32 Postby NCHurricane » Sat Jul 22, 2006 2:22 pm

HurricaneHunter914 wrote:http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atlsfc24_latestBW_sm3.gif

In the next 24 hrs, there is a Tropical Storm forecasted but I'm not sure if this is in the Epac or in the Atlantic.


EPAC

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/pac ... BW_sm3.gif

Chuck Copeland
http://www.nchurricane.com

EDIT: Sorry for the repeat. Already answered.
Last edited by NCHurricane on Sat Jul 22, 2006 2:23 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#33 Postby southerngale » Sat Jul 22, 2006 2:23 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:So the ? is does anyone notice what is down there right now....... and the possible reason the NHC has come forth so suddenly


Yeah, we noticed it...that's why we're talking about it in this thread. ;)
And the NHC posted their thoughts in the TWO.
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#34 Postby ammmyjjjj » Sat Jul 22, 2006 2:23 pm

What? I want to know.
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#35 Postby Stratosphere747 » Sat Jul 22, 2006 2:24 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:So the ? is does anyone notice what is down there right now....... and the possible reason the NHC has come forth so suddenly


Read the disscussion...

As of now it's just a mess, with no organzation.
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#36 Postby gatorcane » Sat Jul 22, 2006 2:24 pm

I don't think Derek Ortt (one of our pro mets here) cares for it. Here is what he said in another thread: :lol:

Most of the 12Z global models are taking this [a reference in the EPAC]] very near the big island on Friday, as a somewhat coherent TC.

This is the main USA threat, not that garbage in the BOC


I am really not concerned with the BOC either
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#37 Postby Aric Dunn » Sat Jul 22, 2006 2:30 pm

well i give you a HINT ..
there is
A
Closed Surface LOW
would you like to know more?
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#38 Postby Thunder44 » Sat Jul 22, 2006 2:33 pm

gatorcane wrote:I don't think Derek Ortt (one of our pro mets here) cares for it. Here is what he said in another thread: :lol:

Most of the 12Z global models are taking this [a reference in the EPAC]] very near the big island on Friday, as a somewhat coherent TC.

This is the main USA threat, not that garbage in the BOC


I am really not concerned with the BOC either


Unless whatever develops turns north, it probably won't be anything more than a weak TS before it moves inland in Mexico, although they can't seem to handle flooding rains there. I agree Daniel pose a much more significant threat to the USA, especially if comes at them from the SW.
Last edited by Thunder44 on Sat Jul 22, 2006 2:35 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#39 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jul 22, 2006 2:33 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:well i give you a HINT ..
there is
A
Closed Surface LOW
would you like to know more?


When you post a statement like this,you have to back it with facts.
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#40 Postby ammmyjjjj » Sat Jul 22, 2006 2:33 pm

Please...........
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