98L invest,W.GOM,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[Aric Dunn]

So the ? is does anyone notice what is down there right now....... and the possible reason the NHC has come forth so suddenly

Read the disscussion...

As of now it's just a mess, with no organzation.

yes but there is something they did not say.. that is occuring

[Stratosphere747]

What exactly is occurring?

There is more rotation in the Central Gulf below Ala/Miss than in the BOC...

[southerngale]

If you want to say something Aric, just say it. This is silly.

[Opal storm]

This looks just like that invest we had in the BOC a month or so ago.

I'm surprised the NHC is already considering a recon to fly out in it,considering that right now it's just a blob of convection that really hasn't shown any signs of organization.Lets see what happens with it tonight.

[Aric Dunn]

Ok well i will tell you then ...

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html
Image centered at Latitude= 18.84° N Longitude= 95.51° W (X=155 Y=380)


First of all ... There is sufficent evidence that there is a closed surface low.. on visible and with many surface obs coming out of the BOC..

When i first saw the disscsuion this morning i was wondering what could they possible know to prompt them to come out and say what they did.. when the BOC was very dissorganized... and was lacking and reall dicernable turning...

those were the ?'s i asked..so i did some looking.. and found plenty to support what im saying ... i will post the surface obs in minute need to gather them up .. but start with the satellite that is where the apperent center is.. and yes it is very very close to the coast.. and slow drifting away... and yes very unlikely that there will be anysort of development anytime soon and the disscusion says..

[Stratosphere747]

Could be wrong, but I don't see any closed surface low in the BOC or anywhere near the coast....

[WindRunner]

18.84N 95.91W is well south of the main area of convection and has no discernible low pressure area associated with it (on satellite). Also, there's the slight problem that that location is located inland in Mexico, and not the BOC.

[Stratosphere747]

Nada.....

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42055

[Aric Dunn]

Ok well i will tell you then ...

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html
Image centered at Latitude= 18.84° N Longitude= 95.51° W (X=155 Y=380)


First of all ... There is sufficent evidence that there is a closed surface low.. on visible and with many surface obs coming out of the BOC..

When i first saw the disscsuion this morning i was wondering what could they possible know to prompt them to come out and say what they did.. when the BOC was very dissorganized... and was lacking and reall dicernable turning...

http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/MMVR.html

http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/MMVA.html

http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/MMMT.html

http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/MMCE.html

http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/MMCP.html


Ok there are the Obs starting from west to east. from Veracruz east to Campeche.

Now Veracruz is sitting right near the Center.. and winds have come around from the NNE to the NNW as the Low has moved North.. that station has played a big role in determaing this fact.. the rest of the obsevation go from the veracruz to the south along the BOC and the observation there have been out of the west.... then further east the winds clock around to the SE and ESE then E ......


those were the ?'s i asked..so i did some looking.. and found plenty to support what im saying ... i will post the surface obs in minute need to gather them up .. but start with the satellite that is where the apperent center is.. and yes it is very very close to the coast.. and slow drifting away... and yes very unlikely that there will be anysort of development anytime soon and the disscusion says..

[WindRunner]

Now Veracruz is sitting right near the Center.. and winds have come around from the NNE to the NNW as the Low has moved North.. that station has played a big role in determaing this fact.. the rest of the obsevation go from the veracruz to the south along the BOC and the observation there have been out of the west.... then further east the winds clock around to the SE and ESE then E ......

There's your problem - if the low was centered around Veracruz, then the winds further to the E along the BOC shore (which would actually be more SE) would have to be SW to support a surface low.

[Aric Dunn]

And another point.. the pressure at least over the past few hours have been falling throughout the area

down a couple of millibars in the past few hours in a coulple locations

giving that really is no big deal and that could be givin to the afternoon pressure falls but its only 255 over there so thats odd..

so what would make th NHC jump out and say what they said in the disscusion.. well with the existing weak and not well definded low in the far southern BOC and assoicated wave axis to its north and the forcast for the upper enviroment to improve at least a little .. in my oppion would explain the unexplained disscusion.. because the NHC would not put that out without something to back it up.. models are not in any agreement there really is nothing else to expalin that ..

[Aric Dunn]

Now Veracruz is sitting right near the Center.. and winds have come around from the NNE to the NNW as the Low has moved North.. that station has played a big role in determaing this fact.. the rest of the obsevation go from the veracruz to the south along the BOC and the observation there have been out of the west.... then further east the winds clock around to the SE and ESE then E ......

There's your problem - if the low was centered around Veracruz, then the winds further to the E along the BOC shore (which would actually be more SE) would have to be SW to support a surface low.

further east .. think about what you just said .. Veracruz is on the west side of the bay of campechee... so observation on the East side would be SE ESE then E

[Aric Dunn]

18.84N 95.91W is well south of the main area of convection and has no discernible low pressure area associated with it (on satellite). Also, there's the slight problem that that location is located inland in Mexico, and not the BOC.

so whats the problem with the LLC being south of the main convection... ??

[wxboy222]

there is NO convergence to speak of

[Grease Monkey]

I kind of wonder about the NHC too because usually if anything, the NHC seems to be quick to say nothing will develop in the near future, so maybe there really is something that the NHC is seeing.

[Aric Dunn]

I guess all im saying is that if there was anything down there at all to pay attention to .. that would be it... and I am strecthing it..... but otherwise there is nothing there that would support any develoment that the NHC says.... except for what I pointed out..... So there is a LLC of some sort ..pressures are down and the surface observation do support and closed low weak but it is there .. and that is it..

[Steve]

:30 ago

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/Special/C ... full40.asp

[southerngale]

The pressure falls every afternoon though.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Theres nothing forming over the BOC...The Cyclonic spending is a upper level Anticyclone over Central America and Mexico...Which is nosing up to the BOC.The tropical wave is aroud 96 west which is moving westward...In a northly wind is at around 94 west with a ob station over land which would put anything way west of the wave. So no nothing is forming.

[WindRunner]

18.84N 95.91W is well south of the main area of convection and has no discernible low pressure area associated with it (on satellite). Also, there's the slight problem that that location is located inland in Mexico, and not the BOC.

so whats the problem with the LLC being south of the main convection... ??

Well, that was my main point to make there . . . all that means is that it will take longer to develop. The real problem was a) I couldn't see a LLC (doesn't mean there isn't one there) and b) that location is inland and not over water, so any LLC that is there would need to get out over water before even thinking about generating convection.

And as for the winds . . .

This is the BOC with an overlay of a storm. The red arrows are the directions that the winds would typically be coming from near a LLC with a center just north of Veracruz. The green arrows are the plots of the winds at the places you mentioned in their most recent observations (which are not entirely ordered west to east, BTW). As you can see, the flow is quite contradictory to what should occur if your LLC was in the spot you say it was or anywhere near as broad as you claim.