98L invest,W.GOM,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[cycloneye]

578
ABNT20 KNHC 222107
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT SAT JUL 22 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO AND ALONG THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO NEAR TAMPICO.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND
TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED HERE OR ELSEWHERE THROUGH
SUNDAY.

$$

FORECASTER FRANKLIN


Nothing here.

[Grease Monkey]

Now that's more like the NHC i know.

[SouthFloridawx]

Recon BABY!!

000
NOUS42 KNHC 221800
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1100 AM EDT SAT 22 JUL 2006
SUBJECT: TROPICAL STORM PLAN OF THE DAY (TSPOD)
VALID 23/1100Z TO 24/1100Z JUL 2006
TSPOD NUMBER.....06-053

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL INVEST AT
24/1800Z NEAR 22.0N 096.0W.

[cycloneye]

Recon BABY!!

000
NOUS42 KNHC 221800
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1100 AM EDT SAT 22 JUL 2006
SUBJECT: TROPICAL STORM PLAN OF THE DAY (TSPOD)
VALID 23/1100Z TO 24/1100Z JUL 2006
TSPOD NUMBER.....06-053

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL INVEST AT
24/1800Z NEAR 22.0N 096.0W.

It was posted at page 1 but that's ok.

[Opal storm]

Recon will most likely be cancelled IMO.Nothing is going on down there.

[southerngale]

He may not have had time to read all 4 pages. I often don't have time to read an entire thread, so I just catch up on the last few pages. Since I know others do the same, that may be the first time they've seen the recon info.

[SouthFloridawx]

He may not have had time to read all 4 pages. I often don't have time to read an entire thread, so I just catch up on the last few pages. Since I know others do the same, that may be the first time they've seen the recon info.

Actually that is pretty much right. I usually like to try to start and the first page but, this is the first I have been on today and so much was posted since last night I gotta kind of skim over the threads to get caught up. Thanks Kelly

[rockyman]

Luis...could you put back the "recon possible" info in the thread title?...it's not "breaking news"...but it is the most important thing about this system (so far).

[SouthFloridawx]

Luis...could you put back the "recon possible" info in the thread title?...it's not "breaking news"...but it is the most important thing about this system (so far).

I agree....

[cycloneye]

Luis...could you put back the "recon possible" info in the thread title?...it's not "breaking news"...but it is the most important thing about this system (so far).

It's up there again as it was since a little after noon time but took out.But it's again for a few more hours for the newcomers who haved not been here today.However I say that unless this system organizes,that possible mission will be canceled.

[Brent]

Recon BABY!!

000
NOUS42 KNHC 221800
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1100 AM EDT SAT 22 JUL 2006
SUBJECT: TROPICAL STORM PLAN OF THE DAY (TSPOD)
VALID 23/1100Z TO 24/1100Z JUL 2006
TSPOD NUMBER.....06-053

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL INVEST AT
24/1800Z NEAR 22.0N 096.0W.

On my birthday.

Doesn't look like anything now though, so I doubt it'll happen.

[wxman57]

Just scattered thunderstorms. Wave axis looks to be along 98W, inland into Mexico now. Upper winds quite unfavorable. Might bring some rain up north of Tampico, but development chances appear slim.

[Steve]

LMAO at the photo of the BOC with that star eye.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

This system has been zotted! Its dead jim!!!

[Thunder44]

881
ABNT20 KNHC 230846
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 AM EDT SUN JUL 23 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS...AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE OVER
THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND ADJACENT COASTAL AREAS.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS COULD BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.

$$

FORECASTER PASCH

[Thunder44]

This system has been zotted! Its dead jim!!!

New convection firing up this morning.

[Grease Monkey]

This will be Chris. Why? Because this time I said so.

[cycloneye]

[Stratosphere747]

The BOC went from interesting, to forget it, and now back to interesting…

Excerpts from Corpus Christi disco…

LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...MAIN EMPHASIS IN THE
EXTENDED IS FOR THE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME. LARGE AREA OF
CONVECTION HAS FLARED UP OVERNIGHT NEAR THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE. MODELS SHOW THE SHEAR NEAR THIS REGION WEAKENING
AND SLOW DEVELOPMENT COULD OCCUR THROUGH MONDAY. SYSTEM SHOULD
REMAIN IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO LAND THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS ARE
IN AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING WESTWARD INTO THE
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO THRU TUESDAY WITH THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS REMAINING OVER SOUTH TEXAS. TROPICAL WAVE OR WEAK
SURFACE LOW ACCORDING TO 06Z NAM WILL MAKE A NORTHWARD TREK
THROUGH THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WITH MOISTURE ARRIVING BY
TUESDAY MORNING.

BOTH THE NAM/GFS SHOW A MID LEVEL CIRCULATION
INLAND OVER THE COASTAL BEND BY WEDNESDAY. IF THIS SYSTEM
GETS SOME ORGANIZATION TO IT...THE POSSIBILITY OF CORE RAINS
AND EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL INCREASE. SOMETHING TO WATCH
IN LATER RUNS.

[Thunder44]

Most models I've seen this morning develop a either a low either at the surface or 850mb in the BOC and take it into NE Mexico or extreme South Texas over the next few days.