Tropical Depression Emilia (06E) in EPAC=Last Advisory

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
CrazyC83
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 34009
Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
Location: Deep South, for the first time!

#61 Postby CrazyC83 » Sat Jul 22, 2006 2:37 pm

Where do the Pacific Recons get based from, still Biloxi? (even if it is a heckuva long way)

I'm sure if they flew one into Daniel, they'd have found Category 5 winds...
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 145922
Age: 69
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

#62 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jul 22, 2006 3:40 pm

074
WTPZ41 KNHC 222039
TCDEP1
TROPICAL STORM EMILIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062006
200 PM PDT SAT JUL 22 2006

EMILIA HAS CONTINUED TO MOVE QUICKLY IN A GENERAL NORTHWARD
DIRECTION... ALL THE WHILE BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. BANDING
FEATURES HAVE IMPROVED IN ALL QUADRANTS AND DEEP CONVECTION HAS
DEVELOPED NEAR THE CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 40
KT USING A BLEND OF SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 TO 45 KT
FROM THE TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 350/11. THE PREVIOUSLY EXPOSED TIGHT
LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS BECOME OBSCURED NOW WITH CONVECTION AND
CONVECTIVE CLOUD DEBRIS FROM THE NORTHEAST...WHICH HAS MADE
PLACEMENT OF THE CENTER LOCATION A LITTLE DIFFICULT. HOWEVER...ALL
OF THE AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT EMILIA SHOULD BEGIN
TO BE INFLUENCED BY THE STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ORIENTED EAST-WEST
ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO AND TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR
NORTHWEST. UNFORTUNATELY...ALL OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE A PREMATURE SHARP TURN TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST
FROM ITS CURRENT POSITION...WHICH IS LIKELY NOT GOING TO HAPPEN.
THE ONLY MODELS THAT DO NOT INDICATE THAT SHARP OF AN INITIAL TURN
ARE THE INTERPOLATED UKMET...STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL MODEL P91E...AND
CLIPER. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS WELL TO THE RIGHT OF THE GUNS...
GUNA...AND CONU CONSENSUS MODELS...AND IS CLOSE TO THE INTERPOLATED
UKMET MODEL. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT P91E AND CLIPER ARE TO THE
RIGHT OF THE OFFICIAL TRACK AND BRING EMILIA VERY CLOSE TO THE
MEXICAN COAST IN ABOUT 24 HOURS.

EMILIA IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO LOW VERTICAL SHEAR CONDITIONS IN
12-18 HOURS. THIS FAVORABLE WIND REGIME COUPLED WITH WARM SSTS
EXCEEDING 28C SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST AN AVERAGE RATE OF
INTENSIFICATION. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE
SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS...WHICH ARE NOW MUCH CLOSER IN INTENSITY.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THE TIGHT LOW-LEVEL INNER CORE WIND FIELD
PREVIOUSLY NOTED IN VISIBLE IMAGERY...EMILIA COULD EXPERIENCE A
PERIOD OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION AND BE A HURRICANE IN 24-30 HOURS
AS IT PASSES CLOSE TO THE MEXICAN COAST

DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN BOTH THE TRACK AND THE INTENSITY FORECASTS
... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE WEST-CENTRAL
COAST OF MEXICO.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 22/2100Z 16.5N 104.6W 40 KT
12HR VT 23/0600Z 17.8N 105.4W 45 KT
24HR VT 23/1800Z 19.2N 106.8W 55 KT
36HR VT 24/0600Z 20.3N 108.7W 65 KT
48HR VT 24/1800Z 20.9N 110.2W 75 KT
72HR VT 25/1800Z 22.3N 112.6W 70 KT
96HR VT 26/1800Z 24.5N 115.5W 50 KT
120HR VT 27/1800Z 26.5N 119.0W 30 KT...DISSIPATING

$$
FORECASTER STEWART


WTPZ31 KNHC 222036
TCPEP1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EMILIA ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062006
200 PM PDT SAT JUL 22 2006

...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED AS EMILIA MOVES CLOSER TO MEXICO...

AT 2 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE WEST-CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO FROM
MANZANILLO NORTHWARD TO CABO CORRIENTES. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 24-36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 200 PM PDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EMILIA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 104.6 WEST OR ABOUT 175
MILES...280 KM...SOUTH OF MANZANILLO MEXICO AND ABOUT 560 MILES...
900 KM...SOUTHEAST OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO.

EMILIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATER
TONIGHT OR MONDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF EMILIA IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE THE COAST OF MEXICO. HOWEVER...
JUST A SLIGHT DEVIATION TO THE RIGHT OF THE FORECAST TRACK COULD
BRING THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS...CLOSE TO THE
MEXICAN COAST. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING COULD BE REQUIRED LATER
TONIGHT IF THE EXPECTED TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST DOES NOT
OCCUR AS QUICKLY AS FORECAST.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.

EMILIA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 3
INCHES OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA SAN TELMO
NORTHWARD TO CABO CORRIENTES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS NEAR
6 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

REPEATING THE 200 PM PDT POSITION...16.5 N...104.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 500 PM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800
PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

whereverwx
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1109
Joined: Mon May 31, 2004 10:15 pm

#63 Postby whereverwx » Sat Jul 22, 2006 4:27 pm

She sure has been struggling for the past 39 hours...

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 145922
Age: 69
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

#64 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jul 22, 2006 4:29 pm

calamity wrote:She sure has been struggling for the past 39 hours...

Image


And at the same time inching more closer to the Mexican coast,and that is why the TS watch.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
Aslkahuna
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 4550
Joined: Thu Feb 06, 2003 5:00 pm
Location: Tucson, AZ
Contact:

#65 Postby Aslkahuna » Sat Jul 22, 2006 5:01 pm

There is usually no recon on EPAC systems except in special cases so one is just going to have to accept the intensities based upon the satellite analysis.

Steve
0 likes   

User avatar
AnnularCane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2872
Joined: Thu Jun 08, 2006 9:18 am
Location: Wytheville, VA

#66 Postby AnnularCane » Sat Jul 22, 2006 5:09 pm

Does anybody know where there is a good closeup satellite loop of Emilia?
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 145922
Age: 69
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

#67 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jul 22, 2006 5:12 pm

AnnularCane wrote:Does anybody know where there is a good closeup satellite loop of Emilia?


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t7/loop-avn.html

Here it is.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 145922
Age: 69
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

#68 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jul 22, 2006 5:15 pm

Aslkahuna wrote:There is usually no recon on EPAC systems except in special cases so one is just going to have to accept the intensities based upon the satellite analysis.

Steve


Steve will the first mission towards Emilia depart tomorrow from Biloxi or as it's in the EPAC they will depart from another base?
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
SouthFloridawx
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 8346
Age: 46
Joined: Tue Jul 26, 2005 1:16 am
Location: Sarasota, FL
Contact:

#69 Postby SouthFloridawx » Sat Jul 22, 2006 5:20 pm

AnnularCane wrote:Does anybody know where there is a good closeup satellite loop of Emilia?


http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc0 ... atest.html
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 145922
Age: 69
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

#70 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jul 22, 2006 6:44 pm

843
WTPZ31 KNHC 222343
TCPEP1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EMILIA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 6A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062006
500 PM PDT SAT JUL 22 2006

...EMILIA EDGES TOWARD THE COAST OF MEXICO...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF
MEXICO FROM MANZANILLO TO CABO CORRIENTES. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 24-36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 PM PDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EMILIA WAS
ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 104.8 WEST OR ABOUT
155 MILES...245 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO.

EMILIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR.
A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24
HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN OFFSHORE. HOWEVER...ONLY A SLIGHT DEVIATION TO THE RIGHT OF
THE FORECAST TRACK WOULD BRING TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS TO THE
MEXICAN COAST AS EARLY AS SUNDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.

STORM TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS NEAR 6 INCHES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN...ARE
EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH EMILIA...GENERALLY BETWEEN PUNTA SAN
TELMO AND CABO CORRIENTES.

REPEATING THE 500 PM PDT POSITION...16.9 N...104.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 800 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 145922
Age: 69
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

#71 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jul 22, 2006 9:55 pm

266
WTPZ41 KNHC 230253
TCDEP1
TROPICAL STORM EMILIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062006
800 PM PDT SAT JUL 22 2006

IT IS IMPOSSIBLE TO CONFIDENTLY LOCATE THE CENTER OF EMILIA THIS
EVENING...BUT I BELIEVE IT TO BE LOCATED VERY NEAR THE NORTHEAST
EDGE OF THE DEEPEST CONVECTION...A POSITION ONLY SLIGHTLY TO THE
LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK. TRMM AND SSMI PASSES WITHIN
THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS DO NOT SHOW AS MUCH STRUCTURE IN THE LOW
CLOUD LINES AS THOSE FROM EARLIER IN THE DAY. GIVEN THE LACK OF
CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION...IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT EMILIA HAS
STRENGTHENED ANY. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 35-45
KT...AND THE ADVISORY INTENSITY WILL REMAIN AT 40 KT.
NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR STILL APPEARS TO BE HINDERING DEVELOPMENT...BUT
ALL THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT EMILIA WILL BE MOVING INTO A
MORE FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR
SO. IN FACT...THE UKMET FORECAST 200 MB WINDS...COUPLED WITH THE
30C WATERS...WOULD FAVOR SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING. THE
GFDL...SHIPS...AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE ARE ALL PROJECTING EMILIA TO
REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 36 HOURS...AND SO DOES THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST. THE REGION OF FAVORABLE UPPER FLOW IS SMALL HOWEVER...SO
IF EMILIA MOVES SIGNIFICANTLY SOUTH OF THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK
ITS DEVELOPMENT COULD BE DELAYED. AFTER 48 HOURS...THE CYCLONE IS
EXPECTED TO BE MOVING OVER COOLER WATERS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 330/10. EMILIA APPEARS TO BE
MAKING THE FORECAST NORTHWESTWARD TURN...AND I DO NOT EXPECT IT TO
GET A LOT CLOSER TO THE MEXICAN COAST THAN IT ALREADY IS.
CONSEQUENTLY...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH...WHICH MEANS THAT STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE BUT NOT EXPECTED...STILL APPEARS TO BE THE
APPROPRIATE STATEMENT AT THIS TIME. SHOULD EMILIA MOVE TO THE
RIGHT OF THE FORECAST TRACK OR DEVELOP MORE RAPIDLY THAN
EXPECTED...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS COULD REACH THE WATCH AREA AS
EARLY AS TOMORROW MORNING. THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS MUCH THE SAME AS
BEFORE...WITH THE GFS TAKING A VERY WEAK SYSTEM SHARPLY
WESTWARD...AND THE UKMET TAKING EMILIA WITHIN STRIKING DISTANCE OF
THE WATCH AREA AS WELL AS BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE GFDL HAS AN ODD
TRACK...RESEMBLING THE GFS EARLY AND THE UKMET LATE. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK AND ON THE
RIGHT-HAND SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 23/0300Z 17.4N 105.3W 40 KT
12HR VT 23/1200Z 18.5N 106.3W 45 KT
24HR VT 24/0000Z 19.7N 108.0W 55 KT
36HR VT 24/1200Z 20.5N 109.5W 65 KT
48HR VT 25/0000Z 21.2N 111.0W 75 KT
72HR VT 26/0000Z 23.0N 114.0W 65 KT
96HR VT 27/0000Z 24.5N 116.5W 45 KT
120HR VT 28/0000Z 26.0N 120.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
Thunder44
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5922
Age: 44
Joined: Mon Jun 09, 2003 7:53 pm
Location: New York City

#72 Postby Thunder44 » Sun Jul 23, 2006 3:45 am

000
WTPZ31 KNHC 230836
TCPEP1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EMILIA ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062006
200 AM PDT SUN JUL 23 2006

...EMILIA A LITTLE STRONGER...MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AND PARALLEL TO
THE COAST OF MEXICO...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF
MEXICO FROM FROM MANZANILLO TO CABO CORRIENTES. A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE
WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 200 AM PDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EMILIA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.5 WEST OR ABOUT 185
MILES...300 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO AND ABOUT
415 MILES...670 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO.

EMILIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR...AND A
NORTHWESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN OFFSHORE. HOWEVER...ONLY A SLIGHT DEVIATION TO
THE RIGHT OF THE FORECAST TRACK COULD BRING TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS TO THE COAST OF MEXICO LATER TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.

STORM TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS NEAR 6 INCHES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN...ARE
EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH EMILIA...GENERALLY BETWEEN PUNTA SAN
TELMO AND CABO CORRIENTES.

REPEATING THE 200 AM PDT POSITION...17.8 N...106.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 500 AM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800
AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH
0 likes   

User avatar
WindRunner
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5806
Age: 34
Joined: Fri Jul 29, 2005 8:07 pm
Location: Warrenton, VA, but Albany, NY for school
Contact:

#73 Postby WindRunner » Sun Jul 23, 2006 7:57 am

No recon for this one folks . . .

Code: Select all

NOUS42 KNHC 231230
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0830 AM EDT SUN 23 JUL 2006
SUBJECT: TROPICAL STORM PLAN OF THE DAY (TSPOD)
         VALID 24/1100Z TO 25/1100Z JUL 2006
         TSPOD NUMBER.....06-054

....

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
    2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
    3. REMARKS: TWO MISSIONS ON TROPICAL STORM EMILIA
       CANCELED BY NHC AT 23/1100Z.
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 145922
Age: 69
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

#74 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jul 23, 2006 9:36 am

264
WTPZ21 KNHC 231419
TCMEP1
TROPICAL STORM EMILIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062006
1500 UTC SUN JUL 23 2006

AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS
DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF
MEXICO.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 107.4W AT 23/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE 25SE 15SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 75NE 60SE 30SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS..130NE 80SE 50SW 130NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 107.4W AT 23/1500Z
AT 23/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 107.0W

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 18.8N 108.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT... 35NE 30SE 20SW 25NW.
34 KT... 80NE 75SE 45SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 19.5N 110.1W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 35SE 25SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 85SE 55SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 20.2N 111.5W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 95SE 65SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 20.9N 113.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 22.3N 115.7W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 35NE 25SE 15SW 25NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 60SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 27/1200Z 24.0N 118.5W...DISSIPATING
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 28/1200Z 26.0N 121.5W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.1N 107.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART



965
WTPZ31 KNHC 231418
TCPEP1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EMILIA ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062006
800 AM PDT SUN JUL 23 2006

...EMILIA GAINING STRENGTH AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM MEXICO...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH DISCONTINUED BUT HEAVY RAINFALL STILL
A THREAT...

AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS
DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF
MEXICO.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 800 AM PDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EMILIA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.4 WEST OR ABOUT 195
MILES...310 KM...SOUTHWEST OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO AND ABOUT 370
MILES...595 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO.

EMILIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR...
AND A MOTION BETWEEN WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...EMILIA WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY MOVE AWAY FROM THE MAINLAND COAST OF MEXICO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
AND EMILIA COULD BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY OR ON MONDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM
FROM THE CENTER. EARLIER THIS MORNING...A SHIP LOCATED WEST OF
MANZANILLO MEXICO REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 37 MPH...59 KM/HR.

THE THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB...29.35 INCHES.

STORM TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS NEAR 6 INCHES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN...ARE
EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH EMILIA...GENERALLY BETWEEN PUNTA SAN
TELMO AND CABO CORRIENTES.

REPEATING THE 800 AM PDT POSITION...18.1 N...107.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB.

THIS WILL BE THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER ON EMILIA UNLESS IT BECOMES A THREAT TO LAND
AGAIN. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON EMILIA CAN BE FOUND IN
FORECAST/ADVISORY AND FORECAST DISCUSSION PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART


WTPZ41 KNHC 231440
TCDEP1
TROPICAL STORM EMILIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062006
800 AM PDT SUN JUL 23 2006

CONVECTION HAS INCREASED MARKEDLY DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS...AND BOTH
CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE EMILIA HAS
BECOME MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED. THE INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO
55 KT BASED ON A DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T3.5 FROM TAFB...A
DATA T-NUMBER OF T3.5 FROM SAB...AND A UW-CIMSS 3-H AVERAGE ADT OF
T3.6/57 KT.

THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT POSITION AND FORWARD
MOTION OF EMILIA...BUT MY BEST ESTIMATE IS 300/09 KT BASED ON
LIMITED MICROWAVE SATELLITE DATA. A LARGE AND RATHER STOUT MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S.
AND EXTENDING SOUTH AND SOUTHEASTWARD INTO MEXICO IS FORECAST TO
WEAKEN SLIGHTLY BUT BASICALLY REMAIN INTACT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. AS SUCH...THE EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY DEEP-LAYER STEERING FLOW
ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE RIDGE SHOULD KEEP EMILIA MOVING IN A
GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWESTWARD DIRECTION. THE MAJORITY OF
THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO. THE
EXCEPTIONS ARE THE GFS AND THE GFS ENSEMBLE MODELS WHICH TAKE EMILIA
QUICKLY WESTWARD FROM ITS CURRENT POSITION...WHICH SEEMS RATHER
UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS VERY CLOSE TO
THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND THE CONU CONSENSUS MODEL.

NOW THAT CENTRAL DEEP CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED AND RECENT AMSU AND
AMSR MICROWAVE DATA INDICATE AN EYEWALL WAS FORMING...EMILIA IS
EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AT A FASTER RATE THAN PAST TRENDS HAVE BEEN.
IN FACT...THE LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...IMPROVING OUTFLOW PATTERN IN
ALL QUADRANTS...AND NEAR-30C SSTS SUGGEST THAT EMILIA MAY BEGIN A
PERIOD OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION WITHIN THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS. THE
RESULT WOULD BE A STRONGER CYCLONE THROUGH 48 HOURS...AFTER WHICH
WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DUE TO EMILIA MOVING OVER MUCH COOLER WATER.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 23/1500Z 18.1N 107.4W 55 KT
12HR VT 24/0000Z 18.8N 108.5W 65 KT
24HR VT 24/1200Z 19.5N 110.1W 75 KT
36HR VT 25/0000Z 20.2N 111.5W 80 KT
48HR VT 25/1200Z 20.9N 113.0W 80 KT
72HR VT 26/1200Z 22.3N 115.7W 55 KT
96HR VT 27/1200Z 24.0N 118.5W 35 KT...DISSIPATING
120HR VT 28/1200Z 26.0N 121.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

0 likes   

bombarderoazul
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 186
Joined: Tue Sep 20, 2005 4:12 pm

#75 Postby bombarderoazul » Sun Jul 23, 2006 10:54 am

getting close to hurricane strength.
0 likes   

User avatar
WindRunner
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5806
Age: 34
Joined: Fri Jul 29, 2005 8:07 pm
Location: Warrenton, VA, but Albany, NY for school
Contact:

#76 Postby WindRunner » Sun Jul 23, 2006 11:17 am

IN FACT...THE LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...IMPROVING OUTFLOW PATTERN IN
ALL QUADRANTS...AND NEAR-30C SSTS SUGGEST THAT EMILIA MAY BEGIN A
PERIOD OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION WITHIN THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS.


This could get interesting . . .
0 likes   

User avatar
cheezyWXguy
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 6110
Joined: Mon Feb 13, 2006 12:29 am
Location: Dallas, TX

#77 Postby cheezyWXguy » Sun Jul 23, 2006 11:25 am

-30c?
0 likes   

bombarderoazul
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 186
Joined: Tue Sep 20, 2005 4:12 pm

#78 Postby bombarderoazul » Sun Jul 23, 2006 11:39 am

That's really cold water. :roll:
0 likes   

User avatar
Cyclenall
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 6667
Joined: Thu Jun 08, 2006 10:01 pm
Location: Ontario, Canada

#79 Postby Cyclenall » Sun Jul 23, 2006 1:25 pm

Cyclenall on Fri Jul 21, 2006 11:56 am wrote:I think she will strengthen faster then what is on the discussion.

This is exactly what happened.

The NHC gives this a chance of RI which has been said in every discussion up to Bud this year. Now, Emilia is going from slow strengthening to steady or fast strengthening.
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 145922
Age: 69
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

#80 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jul 23, 2006 1:34 pm

TROPICAL STORM EMILIA (EP062006) ON 20060723 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060723 1800 060724 0600 060724 1800 060725 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 18.2N 107.5W 18.7N 108.7W 19.3N 110.1W 20.0N 111.7W
BAMM 18.2N 107.5W 18.8N 108.8W 19.3N 110.3W 19.9N 111.8W
LBAR 18.2N 107.5W 18.8N 108.5W 19.6N 110.1W 20.9N 112.2W
SHIP 60KTS 74KTS 83KTS 87KTS
DSHP 60KTS 74KTS 83KTS 87KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060725 1800 060726 1800 060727 1800 060728 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 20.9N 113.7W 22.8N 117.5W 24.4N 121.1W 24.7N 123.8W
BAMM 20.5N 113.6W 22.3N 116.7W 23.9N 119.6W 24.4N 121.8W
LBAR 22.3N 114.4W 25.9N 118.4W 29.0N 120.9W 30.8N 122.3W
SHIP 86KTS 70KTS 48KTS 31KTS
DSHP 86KTS 70KTS 48KTS 31KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 18.2N LONCUR = 107.5W DIRCUR = 305DEG SPDCUR = 7KT
LATM12 = 17.3N LONM12 = 106.3W DIRM12 = 304DEG SPDM12 = 10KT
LATM24 = 15.9N LONM24 = 104.6W
WNDCUR = 60KT RMAXWD = 10NM WNDM12 = 45KT
CENPRS = 991MB OUTPRS = 1008MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 90NM RD34SE = 75NM RD34SW = 30NM RD34NW = 60NM

$$


Almost a hurricane,70 mph at 18:00z BAM models run.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here


Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: fllawyer, Sciencerocks and 47 guests