Hurricane Daniel (05E) in CPAC

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#381 Postby JonathanBelles » Sat Jul 22, 2006 4:02 pm

daniel lol

will TD daniel make it to hawaii?
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#382 Postby Epsilon_Fan » Sat Jul 22, 2006 4:10 pm

looks like our boy is passing his peak... he doesnt look as powerful as he was last night
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#383 Postby SouthFloridawx » Sat Jul 22, 2006 4:24 pm

Grease Monkey wrote:Who's Dan?


umm read the title of the thread then you'll see what he means.
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#384 Postby Aslkahuna » Sat Jul 22, 2006 5:13 pm

When they used to fly recon on the EPAC they staged out of Beale AFB CA (Near Marysville) which is probably one reason for the 140W crossover line for CENPAC since CENPAC recon would stage out of Hickam in HI the aircraft range being the deciding factors. WPAC had it easier because they could stage recon aircraft out of the various US Bases in the area as well as Wake Island or Kwaj. We would see recon crews all of the time at Clark AB.

Steve
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#385 Postby AnnularCane » Sat Jul 22, 2006 5:16 pm

Ohhh. I think that lovely eye is starting to fill in. :cry:
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Jim Cantore

#386 Postby Jim Cantore » Sat Jul 22, 2006 6:50 pm

Look at this

Image

Image
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#387 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Sat Jul 22, 2006 7:04 pm

You I agree recon did not get into Isabel intill she had as warm if not warmer cloud tops as with Daniels peak. So there is thinking that she might of been as high as 150 or 155 knots. Daniel was very close if not a cat5.
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#388 Postby Cyclenall » Sat Jul 22, 2006 7:08 pm

I noticed that the cloud tops were warming this morning and thus the strength has been lowered to 125 Knots. Now, the eye is starting to look a tiny bit less circular and well-defined but the cloud tops are a bit colder then 2-3 hours ago. I would guess that would disappear after some time.
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#389 Postby bombarderoazul » Sat Jul 22, 2006 7:25 pm

We will never know Daniels true intensity, he might have been a cat 5 hurricane for a few hours, but we may never know for sure.
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#390 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jul 22, 2006 7:44 pm

HURRICANE DANIEL (EP052006) ON 20060723 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060723 0000 060723 1200 060724 0000 060724 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 14.3N 132.6W 14.9N 135.2W 15.3N 137.7W 15.4N 139.8W
BAMM 14.3N 132.6W 14.8N 135.1W 15.2N 137.4W 15.4N 139.3W
LBAR 14.3N 132.6W 14.8N 134.9W 15.5N 137.4W 16.1N 139.7W
SHIP 125KTS 106KTS 83KTS 64KTS
DSHP 125KTS 106KTS 83KTS 64KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060725 0000 060726 0000 060727 0000 060728 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 15.1N 141.4W 14.6N 142.4W 15.5N 141.9W 17.8N 143.8W
BAMM 15.3N 140.4W 15.4N 140.8W 16.4N 140.5W 18.2N 143.1W
LBAR 16.8N 141.9W 18.0N 145.8W 19.2N 150.0W 19.1N 154.8W
SHIP 52KTS 44KTS 42KTS 43KTS
DSHP 52KTS 44KTS 42KTS 43KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 14.3N LONCUR = 132.6W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 11KT
LATM12 = 13.8N LONM12 = 130.3W DIRM12 = 276DEG SPDM12 = 11KT
LATM24 = 13.6N LONM24 = 128.0W
WNDCUR = 125KT RMAXWD = 25NM WNDM12 = 130KT
CENPRS = 935MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 220NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 110NM RD34SE = 90NM RD34SW = 90NM RD34NW = 110NM



00:00z Models mantain Daniel at 125 kts.
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#391 Postby StormScanWx » Sat Jul 22, 2006 9:17 pm

Wow! Look at those images Floyd posted. Amazing that these two storms are so similar!! :eek:
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#392 Postby AnnularCane » Sat Jul 22, 2006 9:33 pm

StormScanWx wrote:Wow! Look at those images Floyd posted. Amazing that these two storms are so similar!! :eek:



Isabel cloned herself! :lol:

I thought they were both Daniel until I saw the date on the first one.
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#393 Postby Jim Cantore » Sat Jul 22, 2006 9:39 pm

Katrina did the same thing to georges

Image
Image
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#394 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jul 22, 2006 9:51 pm

443
WTPZ45 KNHC 230250
TCDEP5
HURRICANE DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 25
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052006
800 PM PDT SAT JUL 22 2006

VISIBLE AND ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY DEPICT A LESS IMPRESSIVE EYE
FEATURE THAN 6 HOURS AGO...RAGGED AND NOT QUITE AS WARM.
HOWEVER...EYEWALL TEMPERATURES DECREASED ENOUGH TO INCREASE THE
DVORAK FINAL T AND UW/CIMSS ADT NUMBERS TO 127 KT. BASED ON THE
DVORAK NUMBERS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN AT 125 KT. THIS
MAY BE A SHORT TERM TREND SINCE THE LAST FEW IMAGES INDICATE SOME
WARMING OVER THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. DANIEL
SHOULD REMAIN OVER WARM WATER FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS BEFORE SSTS
BEGIN TO DROP OFF SOME...TO AROUND 25C. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
COOLER THAN 24C ARE NOT EXPECTED SO ONLY A SLOW WEAKENING TREND IS
FORECAST...SIMILAR TO THE GFDL.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 285/11...JUST TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST TRACK. DANIEL IS CURRENTLY BEING STEERED BY A STRONG
MID-TO-UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE TO THE NORTH...AND IS ANTICIPATED
TO REMAIN WITHIN THE DEEP WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FLOW FOR THE NEXT 36
HOURS. AFTER THAT...THERE IS SOMEWHAT OF A DIFFERENCE IN HOW THE
MODELS HANDLE TWO POSSIBLE KEY FEATURES. THE NOGAPS/GFDL/GFS AND
THE ECMWF ALL INDICATE A PRONOUNCED WEAKNESS DEVELOPING WITHIN THE
RIDGE NEAR 140W IN 48 HOURS CREATED BY A COMBINATION OF TWO
SYNOPTIC FEATURES...A RETROGRADING MID-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY ALONG
130W AND A BAROCLINIC SYSTEM ALONG 154W...APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST. THE MODELS CONSEQUENTLY SUGGEST A SIGNIFICANT REDUCTION
IN FORWARD SPEED AS DANIEL MOVES INTO THE BREAK IN THE RIDGE. THE
UKMET...ON THE OTHER HAND...DISSIPATES THE TROUGH ALONG 130W AND
SHOWS A SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM FROM THE
NORTHWEST...PROLONGING A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD STEERING FLOW...WHICH
PLACES DANIEL JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII IN 5 DAYS.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ASSUMES SOME WEAKENING IN THE RIDGE WILL
OCCUR...AND IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...BUT
STILL FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 23/0300Z 14.4N 133.2W 125 KT
12HR VT 23/1200Z 14.8N 134.5W 115 KT
24HR VT 24/0000Z 15.4N 136.4W 100 KT
36HR VT 24/1200Z 15.9N 138.0W 90 KT
48HR VT 25/0000Z 16.3N 139.3W 80 KT
72HR VT 26/0000Z 17.0N 141.0W 70 KT
96HR VT 27/0000Z 18.5N 144.0W 60 KT
120HR VT 28/0000Z 20.0N 148.5W 50 KT

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/FRANKLIN
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#395 Postby AnnularCane » Sat Jul 22, 2006 10:46 pm

Hurricane Floyd wrote:Katrina did the same thing to georges

Image
Image



Actually, I think it would have to be the other way around. Georges was born first, after all. :P
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#396 Postby Jim Cantore » Sat Jul 22, 2006 10:49 pm

Does it matter? :roll:
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#397 Postby Epsilon_Fan » Sat Jul 22, 2006 10:56 pm

there goes Daniel's eye... :cry: the only question now is how hard and fast he'll fall
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#398 Postby Thunder44 » Sun Jul 23, 2006 3:43 am

Statement as of 2:00 am PDT on July 23, 2006



infrared satellite imagery shows that cloud top temperatures over
the western semicircle continue to gradually warm and the overall
convective pattern has become asymmetric about the eye. It would
appear that Daniel is beginning to feel the influence of cooler
waters. The initial intensity is lowered to 115 kt which is a
compromise between 102 kt from SAB and 127 kt from TAFB. Three-
hour average ADT values have also been steady at 115 kt. Being at
or very near the 26c isotherm...Daniel is expected to continue
weakening through the forecast period. Moderate vertical shear may
also begin contributing to the weakening in the 36-48 hour time
frame. Still...Daniel displays characteristics of an annular
hurricane and the official forecast shows weakening at a slower
rate than usual given the aforementioned environmental conditions.
This forecast is also higher than the SHIPS model...which studies
have shown weakens cyclones too quickly in these situations.

Daniel is currently being steered by a strong mid-to-upper
tropospheric ridge to its north resulting in a west to
west-northwestward motion or 280/12. This overall motion is
expected to continue for the next 12-24 hours. Thereafter...most
of the dynamical models indicate a pronounced weakness developing
within the ridge between 135w-140w. This evolution is expected to
result in a reduction in forward speed as the cyclone moves into
the weakness. As would be expected in light steering flow
conditions...dynamical models begin to diverge with the GFS and GFS
ensemble mean showing Daniel becoming...temporarily..nearly
stationary at 48 hours while the UKMET keeps the cyclone moving
along at a steady clip. The official forecast splits the
difference between these two scenarios by showing Daniel slowing as
it moves into the weakness within the ridge between 36 and 48
hours. As Daniel becomes increasingly shallow during the later
parts of the forecast...the steering is expected to become
dominated by the low level easterlies which should allow the
cyclone to speed up again and turn more towards the west.

Forecast positions and Max winds

initial 23/0900z 14.7n 134.6w 115 kt
12hr VT 23/1800z 15.0n 135.9w 100 kt
24hr VT 24/0600z 15.6n 137.7w 90 kt
36hr VT 24/1800z 16.0n 139.2w 80 kt
48hr VT 25/0600z 16.4n 140.2w 70 kt
72hr VT 26/0600z 17.2n 142.0w 60 kt
96hr VT 27/0600z 18.5n 145.0w 50 kt
120hr VT 28/0600z 20.0n 150.0w 40 kt

$$
forecaster Rhome
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#399 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jul 23, 2006 9:58 am

500
WTPZ45 KNHC 231456
TCDEP5
HURRICANE DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 27
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052006
800 AM PDT SUN JUL 23 2006

DANIEL REMAINS AN IMPRESSIVE CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE IN SATELLITE
IMAGERY. DESPITE MOVING OVER SLIGHTLY COOLER WATERS....CLOUDS TOPS
HAVE COOLED ONCE AGAIN AND THE EYE HAS BECOME MORE DISTINCT. A
BLEND OF SUBJECTIVE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES YIELDS AN
AVERAGE OF 115 KT...WHILE UW-CIMSS THREE-HOURLY AVERAGE RAW ADT
ESTIMATES ARE T6.3 ABOUT 122 KT. THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY
REMAINS 115 KT.

EVEN THOUGH THE HURRICANE HAS BEEN FORECAST TO SOON SLOW DOWN...
DANIEL CONTINUES TO MOVE STEADILY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND THE
INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 285/12. THE CYCLONE CONTINUES
TO BE STEERED BY A STRONG MID-TO-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO ITS
NORTH...WHICH MOST OF THE MODELS HAVE BEEN FORECASTING TO WEAKEN.
UNCERTAINTIES IN THE FORECAST TRACK AFTER 72 HOURS EXIST
AS A RESULT OF A RATHER LARGE SPREAD IN THE DYNAMICAL MODEL TRACKS.
BOTH THE GFDL AND GFS SIGNIFICANTLY BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE IN THE NEXT
24-48 HOURS. HOWEVER...BOTH MODELS HAVE VASTLY DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS.
THE GFS SLOWS THE SPEED OF DANIEL TO 5 KT IN 24 HOURS AND THEN 2 KT
OR LESS BETWEEN 36 AND 96 HOURS...WHILE THE GFDL TURNS DANIEL
NORTHWARD JUST WEST OF 140W. IN CONTRAST...THE UKMET AND NOGAPS
KEEPS A FAIRLY STRONG RIDGE THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD
WHICH KEEPS DANIEL ON A STEADY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. SINCE IT
DOES NOT APPEAR THAT THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AS MUCH AS THE GFS/GFDL
SOLUTIONS THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK WILL MAINTAIN A GENERALLY
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION...ALTHOUGH A BIT SLOWER THAN THE CURRENT
SPEED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SLOWER THAN THE UKMET BUT IS CLOSE
TO THE NOGAPS AND GFDL/UKMET/NOGAPS MODEL CONSENSUS.

DANIEL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER 25C SSTS FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS...
AND THEN MOVE OVER ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER WATER. VERTICAL SHEAR IS
FORECAST BY THE GFS-BASED SHIPS MODEL TO REMAIN LOW THROUGH 96
HOURS AND THEN INCREASE TO 15-20 KT FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST. AS A
RESULT...THE SHIPS MODEL WEAKENS DANIEL SIGNIFICANTLY AT DAYS
4 AND 5. HOWEVER...THE LARGE SAMPLING RADIUS USED BY THE SHIPS MODEL
APPEARS TO BE RESULTING IN AN OVERESTIMATE OF THE SHEAR SINCE BOTH
IT AND THE OTHER GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE DANIEL IS FORECAST TO MOVE
INTO A LIGHT WIND REGIME THAT IS EXPECTED TO EXIST BETWEEN SEVERAL
SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOWS AROUND THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. LOWER SHEAR
CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH SSTS NEAR 25C MAY RESULT IN DANIEL NOT
WEAKENING AS MUCH AS CURRENTLY INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
AND BY THE SHIPS MODEL.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 23/1500Z 14.9N 135.7W 115 KT
12HR VT 24/0000Z 15.4N 137.3W 105 KT
24HR VT 24/1200Z 15.9N 139.1W 95 KT
36HR VT 25/0000Z 16.3N 140.4W 85 KT
48HR VT 25/1200Z 16.8N 141.8W 75 KT
72HR VT 26/1200Z 17.8N 144.0W 65 KT
96HR VT 27/1200Z 19.0N 147.5W 55 KT
120HR VT 28/1200Z 20.0N 152.5W 45 KT

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/STEWART


Still is hanging as a cat 4.The threat to Hawaii increases.
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#400 Postby HurricaneHunter914 » Sun Jul 23, 2006 12:34 pm

Hawaii is in trouble.
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