98L invest,W.GOM,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[senorpepr]

Lets hope 98L can stay over water long enough for Chris to form.

I hope not. Especially if its in the BOC or GOM. I don't want any more landfalls.

Although, I will add to what I wrote, a nice weak TS bringing rain to LA/MS wouldn't be to bad. As long as it is VERY weak.

See..

I was simply adding a graphic to your statement.

Although, I will add to what you wrote... more than just LA/MS needs the rain. AL, the panhandle of FL and TX (basically, most of the Gulf Coast) could use the rain.

[Stormcenter]

Does anyone see a small spin way down in the BOC?


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-rgb.html

[StrongWind]

Uhh.. how is Helene pronounced exactly? Like Hell with a long e as in bean?

My family, Grandmother-Mother-Sister-Niece, have always pronounced their name with the 1st e as short, the second e as a long-a, the third e is silent, the last e as as a short-a: "He - Lane - a" and not "Hell - Eene" although this could be due to a strong Germanic influence.

[all_we_know_is_FALLING]

Lets hope 98L can stay over water long enough for Chris to form.

I hope not. Especially if its in the BOC or GOM. I don't want any more landfalls.

Although, I will add to what I wrote, a nice weak TS bringing rain to LA/MS wouldn't be to bad. As long as it is VERY weak.

See..

I was simply adding a graphic to your statement.

Although, I will add to what you wrote... more than just LA/MS needs the rain. AL, the panhandle of FL and TX (basically, most of the Gulf Coast) could use the rain.

Yeah.. okay.

[SouthFloridawx]

Lets hope 98L can stay over water long enough for Chris to form.

I hope not. Especially if its in the BOC or GOM. I don't want any more landfalls.

Although, I will add to what I wrote, a nice weak TS bringing rain to LA/MS wouldn't be to bad. As long as it is VERY weak.

See..

I was simply adding a graphic to your statement.

Although, I will add to what you wrote... more than just LA/MS needs the rain. AL, the panhandle of FL and TX (basically, most of the Gulf Coast) could use the rain.

Yeah.. okay.

Dude seriously get a grip... he WAS just adding to your post about the lack of rain. Come on man!

Lets hope 98L can stay over water long enough for Chris to form.

I hope not. Especially if its in the BOC or GOM. I don't want any more landfalls.

Well, many places along the Gulf Coast could use a weak tropical system.

[DrStorm]

Does anyone see a small spin way down in the BOC?

Looks like it's trying, but not seeing enough organized convection yet. I think the Gulf is going to spin something up over the next couple of days, I think it's just a question of where that spin up will occur.

[wxwatcher91]

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8sht.html

under 20 to 30kts of shear right now but decreasing 0 to 5kts

[duris]

From afternoon New Orleans AFD:

AFTER A REPRIEVE THROUGH THIS EVENING...ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE
AND SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ARE EXPECTED TO
SPREAD FROM THE NORTHWEST GULF INTO THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT.
SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW THIS TREND VERY WELL. WITH MID LEVEL WINDS
BACKING TO SOUTHWEST...AND A TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS SETTING UP FROM THE
EXTREME WESTERN GULF INTO THE ARKLATEX...WE WILL BE WATCHING FOR
ANY POTENTIAL TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IN THE SOUTHWEST GULF. IT
APPEARS IF ANYTHING DEVELOPS...IT WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO THE MEXICAN
COAST AS IT MOVES NORTH TOWARDS TEXAS. REGARDLESS...THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST REGION WILL REMAIN IN DEEP TROPICAL FLOW WHICH WILL
MAINTAIN HIGH PW/S.

[Kerry04]

man with the wind shear down like that anything can develop

[Dean4Storms]

The Nam.....Don't know if it has been posted but here she is.


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[Stormcenter]

The Nam.....Don't know if it has been posted but here she is.


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

I guess I won't need to water the lawn this week.

[mvtrucking]

The Nam.....Don't know if it has been posted but here she is.


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

Almost identical to the GFDL track..

Link to 98L:

http://weather.net-waves.com/modelplot.htm

[stormtruth]

Lets hope 98L can stay over water long enough for Chris to form.

I hope not. Especially if its in the BOC or GOM. I don't want any more landfalls.

Well, many places along the Gulf Coast could use a weak tropical system.

Looks like half the country could use a weak tropical system.

[Stratosphere747]

Hmm...

Not sure if it's a good thing that the NAM seems to be handling Emilia fairly well.

I'd be happy to wake up Monday morning with recon canceled....

[Rainband]

Jeff masters blog seems to agree about the recon not flying, you may get that wish.

Posted By: JeffMasters at 4:32 PM GMT on July 23, 2006
The heat was unrelenting yesterday across the Southwest U.S., where most of California and Arizona set new high temperature records. The 99 degrees in downtown Los Angeles beat the old record of 96 set in 1960, and the suburb of Woodland Hills hit a record 119. All the cities in California's Central Valley set records: 109 degrees in Sacramento, 111 in Redding, and 112 in Red Bluff, Stockton and Modesto. San Francisco's 87 degrees easily beat the record of 81 for the date, set back in 1917.

In Phoenix, this morning's low temperature was 97 degrees, which broke the all-time record for highest low temperature ever recorded in that city (96, set on Jul 15, 2003). Tucson's low of 89 Saturday morning was its highest low temperature in recorded history, as well. The temperature topped out at record 116 in Phoenix yesterday, and 121 in nearby Gila Bend.

Tropical update
An area of disturbed weather continues over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. Wind shear is over 20 knots in this region, which is too high to allow development today. Both the GFS and NOGAPS models are forecasting this shear to be 15 knots or higher over the next few days, and usually one needs wind shear to fall to the 10-15 knot range for development. However, the NHC is playing it cautiously and has put a Hunter airplane on call for Monday, if needed. I'll be surprised if this flight happens.

[HURAKAN]

I agree, but remember Beryl!!!

[Stormcenter]

We all know things can change quickly in the tropic one way or another. I would not be surprised if this did develop and I would not be surprised if it didn't. It's hit or miss with tropical development. If anything, it will at least bring some needed rain to the northern Gulf coast due to the moisture influx.

[wxman22]

Deep, tropical moisture from an area of disturbed weather will be surging northward into the western Gulf Coast region Monday and Tuesday, producing widespread thunderstorms. Thunderstorms across the region will be large and slow moving, resulting in a widespread flash flood potential across southeastern Texas and southern Louisiana, which were hit hard at the beginning of the month by heavy, flooding rains. The flooding concerns will be the greatest Monday night and into Tuesday as the disturbance moves into the region. This story by AccuWeather.com Senior Meteorologists Brett Anderson and Kristina Baker

[Rainband]

:uarrow: I agree, but remember Beryl!!!

Beryl was easy to forget

[MGC]

Unless there is an explosion of convection tonight then I see no need for Recon tomorrow. Don't look to be happening ATT.......MGC