98L invest,W.GOM,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[mvtrucking]

Have there been any tropical storms, that became hurricane's in the GOM in recent memory?

[all_we_know_is_FALLING]

Lets hope 98L can stay over water long enough for Chris to form.

I hope not. Especially if its in the BOC or GOM. I don't want any more landfalls.

Although, I will add to what I wrote, a nice weak TS bringing rain to LA/MS wouldn't be to bad. As long as it is VERY weak.

See..

I was simply adding a graphic to your statement.

Although, I will add to what you wrote... more than just LA/MS needs the rain. AL, the panhandle of FL and TX (basically, most of the Gulf Coast) could use the rain.

Yeah.. okay.

Dude seriously get a grip... he WAS just adding to your post about the lack of rain. Come on man!

Lets hope 98L can stay over water long enough for Chris to form.

I hope not. Especially if its in the BOC or GOM. I don't want any more landfalls.

Well, many places along the Gulf Coast could use a weak tropical system.

Uhh.. excuse me.. All I said was "yeah.. okay" meaning I agree with him. Geez. You need to get a grip, not me.

[CrazyC83]

Ironically, the path of Katrina seems like the best path...for a 40 mph tropical storm...

[all_we_know_is_FALLING]

Ironically, the path of Katrina seems like the best path...for a 40 mph tropical storm...

Haha I know. Or maybe a little west of Katrina's path.. since most of the convection would likely be on the eastern side.

[rockyman]

I think the above exchange is a prime example of why we should ALL give each other the benefit of the doubt...and why we should ALL PLEASE PLEASE PLEASE stop using the eyerolls...

[Ivanhater]

I just do not see anything going on...just one big mess, who knows, could change tomorrow but doubt it.

[Rainband]

I just do not see anything going on...just one big mess, who knows, could change tomorrow but doubt it.

Lots of shear but it's forecast to weaken. Maybe something will develop then.

[Ivanhater]

I just do not see anything going on...just one big mess, who knows, could change tomorrow but doubt it.

Lots of shear but it's forecast to weaken. Maybe something will develop then.

Could, but there may be nothing left of it by that time

[SouthFloridawx]

Uhh.. excuse me.. All I said was "yeah.. okay" meaning I agree with him. Geez. You need to get a grip, not me. Rolling Eyes

Right

[Cape Verde]

I don't know what's going to happen, but as a resident of Houston I'm sure going to keep on eye on this. The condiitions look favorable for it to become a tropical storm and impact us early this week.

[HurricaneHunter914]

Once Emilia moves away then 98L will have the chance to become a TS or possibly a Hurricane.

[Stormavoider]

The latest frames of visible show a good spin at 22N 96.5W. The center is now over water. It seems to be partly covered by upper level stuff.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-vis.html

[wxman57]

One problem with development - there needs to be at least one thunderstorm. Currently, just some mid and high clouds over the BoC. Chances of development seem fairly low. In order for development to occur, there needs to be solid cluster of thunderstorms in the same area for 18-24 hours or more. Otherwise, it's difficult to develop an LLC.

[Stormavoider]

Pressure is getting low.

http://www.wunderground.com/global/stations/76692.html

[wxman57]

As you can see from the 00Z surface plot below, there's nothing down there. No wind, no thunderstorms, nothing. Not even sure if this might be strong enough to bring us any rain in Texas. But the models are picking up on some low-level vorticity moving northward up the Texas coast. Might enhance the seabreeze storms by Tuesday.

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/98L.gif

[Ivanhater]

One problem with development - there needs to be at least one thunderstorm. Currently, just some mid and high clouds over the BoC. Chances of development seem fairly low. In order for development to occur, there needs to be solid cluster of thunderstorms in the same area for 18-24 hours or more. Otherwise, it's difficult to develop an LLC.

Exactly, which is why I said earlier that conditions may be more favorable in a couple of days but if there is nothing left, well that is a problem.

[Stormavoider]

This is closer.


http://www.wunderground.com/global/stations/76640.html

[Stormavoider]

I think this center has been over land for much of the afternoon. Now that it's over water, do you think it will spawn new convection?

[wxman57]

One problem with development - there needs to be at least one thunderstorm. Currently, just some mid and high clouds over the BoC. Chances of development seem fairly low. In order for development to occur, there needs to be solid cluster of thunderstorms in the same area for 18-24 hours or more. Otherwise, it's difficult to develop an LLC.

Exactly, which is why I said earlier that conditions may be more favorable in a couple of days but if there is nothing left, well that is a problem.

Mean mid-level flow will be SSE-S at 25-35 kts across the western Gulf by tomorrow. In a couple of days, whatever's left of 98L should be over northern Mexico and Texas. Time for development is running out fast.

[wxman57]

I think this center has been over land for much of the afternoon. Now that it's over water, do you think it will spawn new convection?

Can't rule it out. Again, the key will be can it KEEP the convection going for long enough to generate inflow and turning (i.e., develop an LLC). Takes quite a while for that to happen, 24 hours or more. There doesn't seem to be any convergence down there now, and you need convergence to generate storms.