Hurricane Daniel (05E) in CPAC

[AnnularCane]

I remember losing track of John after he crossed the dateline and then finding out he had crossed back over. I couldn't believe he was still alive!

[CrazyC83]

If it crosses 180W with winds >74 mph (unlikely), it becomes Typhoon Daniel or stays Hurricane Daniel?

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

I think it will be renamed. Not 100% sure if they still have that rule though.

[Derek Ortt]

it would then become Typhoon Daniel

At its current motion, this thing will be in the CPAC by 5 A.M. (11 P.M. HST) tomorrow morning (tonight). Latest motion is closer to 17-20KT to the WNW (hopefully and likely temporary)

[CrazyC83]

I think it will be renamed. Not 100% sure if they still have that rule though.

I know the name itself does not change, unless it degenerates and regenerates past the dateline (in which case it is the next name on the WPAC list). I wasn't sure if the designation changed though.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
1145 AM HST SUN JUL 23 2006

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THROUGH MOST OF
THIS WEEK...ALONG WITH A RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL PATTERN OF
WINDWARD AND MAUKA CLOUDS AND SHOWERS.

&&

.UPDATE...
A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY SURROUNDS THE FORECAST FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. AT 1130 AM HST...HURRICANE DANIEL WAS
LOCATED 1200 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF THE BIG ISLAND AND MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST NORTHWEST AT 15 MPH. THE LATEST OFFICIAL
FORECAST...ISSUED BY THE TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER IN MIAMI...HAS
DANIEL CROSSING 140W AND INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC MONDAY MORNING.
THOUGH DANIEL CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...THE LATEST OFFICIAL FORECAST
PLACES DANIEL 65 MILES NORTHEAST OF HILO FRIDAY MORNING AT TROPICAL
STORM STRENGTH. WITH A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH
REGARD TO BOTH TRACK AND INTENSITY THIS FAR OUT...IT IS UNCLEAR HOW
OR WHETHER DANIEL WILL AFFECT ISLAND WEATHER. WIND SWELL BUILT UP BY
THE STORM MAY REACH THE ISLANDS AS EARLY AS TUESDAY...AND DANIEL
ITSELF MIGHT INCREASE CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL AS EARLY AS FRIDAY
MORNING. THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER WILL ASSUME FORECAST
RESPONSIBILITY FOR DANIEL ONCE IT CROSSES 140W.

.DISCUSSION...
LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADES HAVE RETURNED ACROSS THE STATE. CURRENT
BUOY OBSERVATIONS SHOW PERSISTENT 10 TO 15 KT TRADES OVER THE OPEN
OCEAN AROUND THE ISLANDS...AND SURFACE WIND OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE
STATE ARE BEGINNING TO FOLLOW SUIT. DO NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD SEA
BREEZES ACROSS LEEWARD AREAS TODAY...EXCEPT FOR THOSE AREAS WELL
PROTECTED FROM THE TRADES. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE STATE
WILL MAINTAIN THE LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADES THROUGH MOST OF THIS WEEK.

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A TYPICAL TRADE WIND DISTRIBUTION OF CLOUDS
THIS MORNING...THOUGH OVERALL SHOWER ACTIVITY IS LOW. OTHER THAN A
PATCH OF MODERATE SHOWERS THAT AFFECTED WINDWARD SECTIONS OF KAUAI
EARLY THIS MORNING...THERE WERE LITTLE TO SHOWERS ACROSS THE
WINDWARD AND MAUKA SECTIONS OF THE REMAINING ISLANDS. SHOWER
ACTIVITY OVER WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE
TOWARD MORE TYPICAL VALUES OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AND THE TRADE
WINDS STEADY THEMSELVES. THE UPPER LOW THAT BROUGHT A FEW HEAVY
SHOWERS TO KAUAI AND OAHU THURSDAY AND FRIDAY IS CURRENTLY LOCATED
NEARLY 500 MILES NORTH OF KAUAI. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FURTHER
NORTH OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THEN WEST AND AWAY FROM THE ISLANDS
AFTER THAT.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

TANABE


Discussion from Hawaii about Daniel.

[Jim Cantore]

I believe the last storm to cross 180w as a Hurricane was Dora in 1999

and this looks like it might take a simular pass to Hawaii as 2000's Daniel

[cycloneye]

HURRICANE DANIEL (EP052006) ON 20060724 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060724 0000 060724 1200 060725 0000 060725 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 15.6N 138.0W 16.2N 140.4W 16.4N 142.4W 16.6N 144.1W
BAMM 15.6N 138.0W 16.0N 140.4W 16.0N 142.3W 16.2N 143.6W
LBAR 15.6N 138.0W 16.0N 140.6W 16.5N 143.1W 17.0N 145.6W
SHIP 95KTS 79KTS 68KTS 62KTS
DSHP 95KTS 79KTS 68KTS 62KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060726 0000 060727 0000 060728 0000 060729 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 16.9N 145.8W 18.1N 149.9W 19.7N 155.5W 21.7N 161.9W
BAMM 16.5N 144.5W 17.0N 146.9W 17.8N 151.5W 20.2N 157.8W
LBAR 17.4N 148.0W 18.1N 153.0W 17.7N 158.0W 17.3N 163.6W
SHIP 58KTS 50KTS 44KTS 43KTS
DSHP 58KTS 50KTS 44KTS 43KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 15.6N LONCUR = 138.0W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 15KT
LATM12 = 14.8N LONM12 = 135.2W DIRM12 = 284DEG SPDM12 = 13KT
LATM24 = 14.3N LONM24 = 132.6W
WNDCUR = 95KT RMAXWD = 15NM WNDM12 = 115KT
CENPRS = 965MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 215NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 80NM RD34SE = 80NM RD34SW = 70NM RD34NW = 80NM


Down to cat 2.

[HurricaneHunter914]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/epac/avn-l.jpg

Daniel has lost hid eye privileges.

[HurricaneBill]

It's incredibly rare for a hurricane to hit Hawaii from the west. Usually, it's the hurricanes that come from the south.

[cycloneye]

Here is a image of the Central Pacific where Hawaii is located and see Daniel to their eastsoutheast..

[f5]

Here is a image of the Central Pacific where Hawaii is located and see Daniel to their eastsoutheast..

if he can say south of the big island he maybe able to restrengethen into a monster once again once he hits that hot caldera sitting out there

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

It will likely weaken into a tropical storm around 35 to 40 knots by the time it hits the island. Why because all cyclones have done so the sst's are around 24c with upper level shear. In some cyclones that tryed got torn to pieces I don't think this is a real threat.

[Derek Ortt]

There is no shera for this to encounter until it is about over the islands.

Also, Fernanda rapidly intensified east of the islands, as did Daniel 2000 briefly. However, both storms ended up missing to the north

[Grease Monkey]

I got a bridge in new york city to give a forecaster that thinks this is not a cat5,,,,This sucker is as strong as Isabel or Katrina.

I'm still waiting for my bridge.

[cycloneye]

161
WTPZ45 KNHC 240252
TCDEP5
HURRICANE DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 29
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052006
800 PM PDT SUN JUL 23 2006

THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF DANIEL HAS DECAYED CONSIDERABLY OVER
THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...WITH THE EYE FILLING IN AND THE CLOUD TOPS
WARMING. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 95 KT IS BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF
THE DVORAK T AND CI NUMBERS...5.0/5.5 FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB. THE
WIND RADII HAVE ALSO BEEN BROUGHT IN BASED ON THE MOST RECENT
QUIKSCAT PASS...WHICH CAUGHT THE EAST SIDE OF THE CYCLONE.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 285/15...A BIT FASTER THAN BEFORE. DANIEL
REMAINS TO THE SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE. OTHER POTENTIAL PLAYERS
IN THE ENVIRONMENT INCLUDE A MID-LEVEL LOW OR TROUGH ABOUT 500 NM
TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE AND AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE
NORTH OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOT IN
GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE HANDLING OF THESE FEATURES...ESPECIALLY THE
FORMER TWO. BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF INITIALIZE THE LOW TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF DANIEL AS A VERY STRONG FEATURE...AND COUPLED WITH A
MORE RAPID WEAKENING OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...BRING DANIEL TO A
DEAD STOP WITHIN 24 HOURS RIGHT AROUND 140W. THEY THEN TAKE DANIEL
WESTWARD AS A VERY WEAK SYSTEM. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE UKMET AND
NOGAPS MAINTAIN A STRONGER RIDGE AND SHOW A MUCH WEAKER FEATURE TO
THE SOUTHWEST OF DANIEL. THIS RESULTS A MORE OR LESS CONTINUED
WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK FOR THE NEXT FIVE DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
HAS BEEN SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH AND A LITTLE FASTER TO BE
MORE CONSISTENT WITH THE UKMET AND NOGAPS MODELS. TO MY EYE...THE
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS MORE CONSISTENT WITH THE UKMET/NOGAPS
INITIALIZATION. FURTHERMORE...THE UKMET AND NOGAPS HAVE
OUTPERFORMED THE COMPETITION BY A WIDE MARGIN FOR DANIEL SO FAR.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE.
DANIEL IS ALREADY OVER SSTS OF ROUGHLY 25C...BUT THEY WON'T BE
GETTING MUCH COOLER IN THE DAYS AHEAD. HOWEVER...DANIEL WILL BE
INCREASINGLY INGESTING STABLE LOW-LEVEL AIR AND SO A CONTINUED
WEAKENING IS EXPECTED. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS SHOWING MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL EASTERLIES ADVANCING WESTWARD WITH DANIEL...AND THE
UKMET AND NOGAPS 200 MB FIELDS SUGGEST THAT SHEAR COULD REMAIN
RELATIVELY LOW THOUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. AS DANIEL APPROACHES
THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...SSTS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AGAIN.
CONSEQUENTLY...DANIEL COULD STILL BE A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
IN FIVE DAYS.

IF DANIEL FOLLOWS THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTRAL PACIFIC
HURRICANE CENTER WOULD ASSUME RESPONSIBILITY FOR THE CYCLONE WITH
THE 15Z ADVISORY PACKAGE TOMORROW MORNING.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 24/0300Z 15.8N 138.7W 95 KT
12HR VT 24/1200Z 16.3N 140.3W 85 KT
24HR VT 25/0000Z 16.8N 142.0W 75 KT
36HR VT 25/1200Z 17.2N 143.5W 65 KT
48HR VT 26/0000Z 17.7N 145.1W 60 KT
72HR VT 27/0000Z 18.5N 148.5W 55 KT
96HR VT 28/0000Z 19.5N 152.5W 50 KT
120HR VT 29/0000Z 21.0N 157.0W 50 KT

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[HURAKAN]

The good news for Hawaii is that Daniel has always been a pretty small system, therefore, it must pass real close or over the islands to have a powerful effect.

[JonathanBelles]

is there warmer water near hawaii?

[boca]

When was the last time a system hit Hawaii from the ESE?

[Hohwxny]

is there warmer water near hawaii?

According to the 11 p.m. discussion from the NHC, yes.