Wave in Central Caribbean

#1 Postby **bvigal** » Mon Jul 24, 2006 9:28 am

CARCAH, TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1000 AM EDT MON 24 JUL 2006
SUBJECT: TROPICAL STORM PLAN OF THE DAY (TSPOD)
VALID 25/1100Z TO 26/1100Z JUL 2006
TSPOD NUMBER.....06-055

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
3. ADDITIONAL DAY OUTLOOK.....POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL INVEST NEAR
18.0N 060.0W FOR 27/1800Z.

#2 Postby **gatorcane** » Mon Jul 24, 2006 9:31 am

WOW - looks like there is some potential with this wave, has the TUTT diminished? :eek:

I think the board is going to get jumping with this thread!

#3 Postby **bvigal** » Mon Jul 24, 2006 9:33 am

windmap from around 3am this morning
http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/dat ... Bas112.png

#4 Postby **gatorcane** » Mon Jul 24, 2006 9:34 am

TPC/NHC is definitely becoming more interested in this wave for reasons we don't know yet - perhaps they think conditions will become favorable over the next couple of days

#5 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Jul 24, 2006 9:35 am

And we can see invest 99L as soon as tommorow.Interesting that they are considering a mission.

#6 Postby **bvigal** » Mon Jul 24, 2006 9:36 am

graph with newest reading (1350z) for buoy 41041

x-y-no · #7 Postby **x-y-no** » Mon Jul 24, 2006 9:36 am

Interesting ...

This is the wave that the CMC has been insisting on developing somewhat and taking towards the Carolinas.

So far, the other globals just carry it through the greater Antilles as a very weak wave.

#8 Postby **gatorcane** » Mon Jul 24, 2006 9:38 am

can you post an image showing the global model runs x-y-no?

#9 Postby **bvigal** » Mon Jul 24, 2006 9:38 am

Yes, we were discussing that on the other thread. If the other models at least recognized this low pressure that has existed for over 24 hrs, then I might put more confidence in their lack of development. :wink:

#10 Postby **gatorcane** » Mon Jul 24, 2006 9:41 am

another member suggested that SSTs are supposed to become more favorable for development in 1-2 days, suggesting a possible refiring of convection. I would have to agree with that looking at the latest SST maps..

Extremeweatherguy · #11 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Mon Jul 24, 2006 9:42 am

I think this wave has the most potential this season. This could be our first hurricane IMO.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atl ... BW_sm3.gif
In 72 hrs. it should be approaching P.R. and after that it could be a threat to the SE United states in 4-6 days! By this upcoming weekend we could be talking about a possible landfall.

MortisFL · #12 Postby **MortisFL** » Mon Jul 24, 2006 9:44 am

If this stays weak, which it appears its doing, it could track into the Caribbean.

#13 Postby **gatorcane** » Mon Jul 24, 2006 9:45 am

latest SAT imagery showing a well-defined circulation, I assume at the low-levels with some convection starting to refire. Looks like it has beat the SAL and will also be getting away from it as it moves more West:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-avn.html

x-y-no · #14 Postby **x-y-no** » Mon Jul 24, 2006 9:48 am

gatorcane wrote:can you post an image showing the global model runs x-y-no?

Aside from the CMC, there's really not much to see - like I said the CMC closes off a low and brings it towards the Carolinas:

(click for larger image)

The GFS and Euro just propagate a very weak wave westward.

#15 Postby **bvigal** » Mon Jul 24, 2006 9:50 am

For sure, 80 degrees is pretty cool. But water's very warm over here near us!

#16 Postby **gatorcane** » Mon Jul 24, 2006 9:51 am

thanks, the image takes a while to load....

MortisFL · #17 Postby **MortisFL** » Mon Jul 24, 2006 9:55 am

I think it has a shot if the shear stays low, 10-15 kts or less. The shear is what has killed these weak SAL systems so far as they have tracked westward. But as we approach August the conditions improve. I'll be interested to see how this looks as it affects the islands and further west into the Carib. or Atlantic.

#18 Postby **gatorcane** » Mon Jul 24, 2006 9:59 am

I think we'll see mention of this wave in a TWO today, maybe as soon as the 11:30AM TWO but maybe not until later tonight.

#19 Postby **bvigal** » Mon Jul 24, 2006 10:01 am

I can't imagine them not mentioning it in 11:30, since it's already been mentioned in recon. In fact, I think we'll see invest sometime today.

#20 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Jul 24, 2006 10:03 am

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41041

Pressure has been steady all morning at the bouy located at 14.5n-46.0w.The winds haved been from the NE for the most part meaning that the low has not passed that longitud yet.

Wave in Central Caribbean

Wave in Central Caribbean

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