98L invest,W.GOM,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[tailgater]

Where is La Pesca, North of Tampico?

[Thunder44]

Where is La Pesca, North of Tampico?

Yes, about midway between Tampico and Brownsville.

[Extremeweatherguy]

This could become a TD or weak TS, but I don't see it being a major issue.

[tailgater]

Thanks 44
It's starting to look like it may be one of those typical western GOM storms, or should I say half a storm.

[Stormcenter]

If it develops most of the weather will be on the east side.

[Extremeweatherguy]

The 12Z NAM has shifted south and now shows a landfall between Corpus and Victoria. Doesn't look like this will have much time. The worst weather will probably be along the central TX coast (If the NAM verifies).

[Stormcenter]

If a center were to form further east into the GOM and the shear would let up some then it would be more of a concern for something more than just heavy rains.



http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

[White Cap]

Is it too soon to expect to see any models of projected path for this blob?

[PTrackerLA]

Typically with the western gulf disorganized tropical storms we tend to get pounded in Louisiana when they make landfall in Texas. I don't expect much to come from this system but it looks like we could be in store for a deluge this week.

[Yankeegirl]

Its already starting to have some effects on the Houston area... Its raining and thundering!!!!

[HouTXmetro]

I go out of town for the weekend and come back this!

[Johnny]

The 12Z NAM has shifted south and now shows a landfall between Corpus and Victoria. Doesn't look like this will have much time. The worst weather will probably be along the central TX coast (If the NAM verifies).


IF something does form and makes landfall in this area, I'm thinking the upper Texas coast/western Louisiana will feel the worst that it has to offer. The reason being is because this will more than likely be a lopsided system spitting most of it's energy up the east side of the circulation. Depressions and weak tropical storms are usually very broad and most of the convection/feeder bands are well away from the center of circulaton. In this case, it will be well to the east. Regardless, lots of rain will be on tap for the Texas coast this week.

[gatorcane]

welcome back!!

[Stormcenter]

It does look now like it is becoming more concentrated in the SW GOM.


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-avn.html

[Yankeegirl]

It looks like the stuff straming in from Mexico is just adding fuel to the fire... Very neat loop...

[Thunder44]

I think I see a low-level spin on visible imagery just inland near Tampico, Mx. Does anyone else see it?

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html

[drezee]

HAving over 40 mph winds sustained for 20 minutes straight isn't exactly Whistlin' Dixie

[KFDM Meteorologist]

The 12Z NAM has shifted south and now shows a landfall between Corpus and Victoria. Doesn't look like this will have much time. The worst weather will probably be along the central TX coast (If the NAM verifies).

The NAM is terrible now since it switched over to WRF. It's to the point we don't even look at it any more.

[Yankeegirl]

Well this is an e mail that I just got from the ever awsome Jeff Linder....

Tropical disturbance in the Bay of Campeche is becoming better organized.



Residents along the TX coast should pay close attention to this system.



Current:



Showers and thunderstorms have greatly increased this morning and it appears a weak area of low pressure has formed near the eastern Mexican coast. NOAA weather buoys in the SW Gulf of Mexico have reported winds of 40-50mph this morning within this thunderstorm activity. Although upper level winds are currently strong out of the WNW and NW they are forecast to gradually weaken and become more favorable for development.



If the surface circulation remains off the Mexican coast then a tropical depression or tropical storm may form over the next day or so as the disturbance moves northward.



Track:

Although there is not a well defined center, the forecast models are in general agreement that the system will move north into a weakness over TX over the next 24-72 hours. On this track the system will begin to impact the lower TX coast Tuesday and then move generally toward Matagorda Bay Wednesday. This track places SE TX and the upper TX coast on the “dirty” side of any low pressure center.



The forecast products over the next 72 hours will be fully based on the development and track of this system. Should a tropical cyclone develop, the wind and seas forecast are on the low side and will need significant upward adjustment. Concern is also increasing for a widespread heavy rainfall and possible flooding event Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday.



Significant forecast changes are possible over the next 24-48 hours as this system approaches the TX coast.

[JonathanBelles]

looks like 98 and emilia are playing tug of war