98L invest,W.GOM,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[Innotech]

hell Rita and Katrina didnt hit my city either (Lafayette literally dodged them both right in the middle) but the damage and rescue effects and evacuations are STILL felt. People are still moving here from New Orleans area and our city has grown from just over 100k to over 145k in less than a year, along with a noticeable increase in traffic and population density.

[HouTXmetro]

The deep red has dissappeared. What are the implications?

[Thunder44]

The deep red has dissappeared. What are the implications?

We are approaching the dirunual minimum of day. Doesn't look to be anything more than that right now.

[HURAKAN]

The deep red has dissappeared. What are the implications?

Extremely normal for a developing disturbance. Remember Beryl!!!

[Hohwxny]

Given that TX and LA have about 25 times the population of HI and have had 2 total monster hurricanes and one major tropical flood event in the past year alone (as opposed to HI's 15 years since a serious strike), I think it's basically inevitable that anything in the GOM is going to get more interest that just about anything in HI.

I'm glad you admit Hawaii hasn't had a strike in 15 years. One can then come to the conclusion that the named Hurricane Daniel should get more coverage than the unnamed 98L. And, this being Hawaii's busy season with summer vacation, those numbers are probably wrong.

[Extremeweatherguy]

That is a statement for LA which gets hit far more by monster hurricanes than Texas does - Texas hasn't seen much in a *long* time - it saw some effects from Rita but still LA saw alot from that also.

Well, technically Rita didn't do a whole lot to Texas (although Port Arthur folks weren't exactly happy) but it was certainly memorable, and it was close. Just the evac of Houston was a small-scale disaster, with that bus fire.

You really shouldn't post about what you clearly have no clue about. I live where you're saying Rita "didn't do a whole lot to Texas" and I beg to differ with gatorcane's "Texas hasn't seen much in a *long* time" - we've ONLY seen the worst disaster this area has ever seen in everyone who lives here's lifetimes!

Sorry, but comments like this show how severely uninformed are you, therefore you shouldn't post them. We are still recovering in this area, many people still in FEMA trailers, living with relatives, businesses and homes destroyed, gutted out, etc.

Don't tell me Rita didn't do a whole lot here. I live here...I know.

I knew SE Texas was impacted from Rita but I thought LA was on the worst side and saw more - maybe it was how the media showed it but that is a whole other topic

SW Louisiana did see more than SE Texas (and I know this for a fact after driving through and comparing the damages), but in no means was SE Texas spared. 100-105mph gusts still occured in Beaumont and up to 110-120mph in Port Arthur. These winds are not minor at all, but it is true that it could have been worse. Hopefully we won't see anything like Rita anytime soon.

[southerngale]

Can we get back to the topic, 98L in the WGOM.

Can we please return to the topic. Thanks

Nobody is stopping you. I haven't been home since early this morning and when I got on here to catch up on 98L, I had a couple of PM's about the comments on page 24, so I went to read them, and then I responded. Sorry that's not ok with y'all, but I wanted to set the record straight. You can continue on posting whatever you'd like about 98L. I plan on backing up several pages to catch up and you're also free to skip over any post you don't want to read.

Steve, I agree it could have been worse, but in nearly every hurricane, it can always be worse. That is still no reason to undermine what did occur, and saying that Rita didn't do a whole lot to Texas is HUGELY undermining it. Sabine Pass was wiped out, and Beaumont, Port Arthur, and many other cities/towns were severely impacted. To say it didn't do a whole lot is false...I never said it couldn't have been worse. When you get hit by a bus, you can tell yourself, "well, at least it wasn't a train" but the damage of being hit by the bus is still the damage of being hit by a bus, no matter how bad it could have been, although obviously it could have been worse.
And Beaumont, Port Arthur, Orange, Sabine Pass, etc. ARE in the far eastern counties...we're still Texas though.

[HURAKAN]

My intentions were to continue talking about 98L, because this was becoming more like a discussion worthy of another thread.

[Steve]

I hear ya. I wasn't personally downplaying the damage there just noting that it could have been a disaster had the tradjectory been between 50-200 miles further west. But it was still an event, just not what it might have been and what it will be in the future. Same goes for the IH Bret(t?) that hit down in Kings Ranch a few years back. A little nudge north or south and either Corpus or Brownsville has real problems. Luckily for Texas, most of the major cities are at least a bit inland to spare serious storm surge issues (admitting that there's still a healthy coastal population who are in for trouble down the line eventually).

But it was another poster who completely played it off. That wasn't me.



Steve

[wxman57]

As far as I can discern, there is no area of low pressure at the surface, and no LLC. Pressures across the western Gulf have actually risen. Any MLC appears to be on the coast of Mexico and moving NNW (inland). Wind shear remains high. Chances of development appear low. That's why recon was cancelled.

However, the system will likely produce heavy squalls into the lower Texas coast by tonight and through Tuesday, spreading northward across much of east Texas late Tue/Wed. Rainfall amounts may top 5-10 inches in coastal sections of Texas over the next few days, maybe more.

So you are disagreeing with the NHC, correct?

LATEST SATELLITE PICTURES AND
SURFACE DATA SHOW THAT A SURFACE LOW IS FORMING NEAR TAMPICO IN
MEXICO.

That statement says there may be a weak low INLAND "in Mexico", not in the Gulf. There aren't a lot of obs down there, just Tampico., and Tampico is reporting a pressure of just over 1012mb. Steering currents are from the SSE, so if there is any low there in the lower to mid levels, then it's inland and moving farther inland.

As Derek has said, at the very worst, we could see a weak LLC form offshore and the NHC call this a TD or sheared, weak TS in the next 24-36 hours before it's completely inland in Texas. The real threat is from heavy rain, not wind. Regardless of whether it develops, it'll be producing very heavy rain along the TX coast. And even if it is called a TD or weak TS, it won't have any significant wind outside of gusts in squalls (which are already there).

The NHC continues to be very cautious, not dismissing any chance of development until they're 100% sure it won't develop. That's their job - to keep the general public alert to the smallest chance of development.

[southerngale]

My intentions were to continue talking about 98L, because this was becoming more like a discussion worthy of another thread.

I know. Sorry...I didn't mean to sound harsh. I had just walked into the thread and made one post, then saw 2 posts saying get back on topic. I was like "whoa...let me respond to what was said at least!"

Anyway, I'm still behind and need to catch up on 98L.

[Stormcenter]

As far as I can discern, there is no area of low pressure at the surface, and no LLC. Pressures across the western Gulf have actually risen. Any MLC appears to be on the coast of Mexico and moving NNW (inland). Wind shear remains high. Chances of development appear low. That's why recon was cancelled.

However, the system will likely produce heavy squalls into the lower Texas coast by tonight and through Tuesday, spreading northward across much of east Texas late Tue/Wed. Rainfall amounts may top 5-10 inches in coastal sections of Texas over the next few days, maybe more.

So you are disagreeing with the NHC, correct?

LATEST SATELLITE PICTURES AND
SURFACE DATA SHOW THAT A SURFACE LOW IS FORMING NEAR TAMPICO IN
MEXICO.

That statement says there may be a weak low INLAND "in Mexico", not in the Gulf. There aren't a lot of obs down there, just Tampico., and Tampico is reporting a pressure of just over 1012mb. Steering currents are from the SSE, so if there is any low there in the lower to mid levels, then it's inland and moving farther inland.

As Derek has said, at the very worst, we could see a weak LLC form offshore and the NHC call this a TD or sheared, weak TS in the next 24-36 hours before it's completely inland in Texas. The real threat is from heavy rain, not wind. Regardless of whether it develops, it'll be producing very heavy rain along the TX coast. And even if it is called a TD or weak TS, it won't have any significant wind outside of gusts in squalls (which are already there).

The NHC continues to be very cautious, not dismissing any chance of development until they're 100% sure it won't develop. That's their job - to keep the general public alert to the smallest chance of development.

Good post.

[southerngale]

Not to mean lady, moan or complain, but I really hate the new format of storm 2 k where you have to wade through 20 pages in a thread to find something useful. I realize that topics were getting out of hand and moving too fast. And I also realize that numerous whiners complained about the 10 page rule, but this is just ridiculous.

Steve

In catching up, I saw this post. You don't have to...the limit is 25 pages for bandwidth reasons, but anyone is free to start a thread about anything you think is significant enough to start one about. I personally agree with you and would rather see eye-catching titles and shorter threads, but as long as everyone keeps posting in one thread, they're gonna get long.