Wave in Central Caribbean

HurricaneHunter914 · #41 Postby **HurricaneHunter914** » Mon Jul 24, 2006 1:14 pm

Jesse, that Recon Outlook has been posted a million times. No offense.

#42 Postby **bvigal** » Mon Jul 24, 2006 1:15 pm

vacanechaser wrote:did anyone see this?????

It was the first post on this thread.

#43 Postby **bvigal** » Mon Jul 24, 2006 1:20 pm

Whoops, sorry HurricaneHunter914, we posted at same time.

vacanechaser · #44 Postby **vacanechaser** » Mon Jul 24, 2006 1:21 pm

sorry,, missed it... at work and scanning the board...

Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

HurricaneHunter914 · #45 Postby **HurricaneHunter914** » Mon Jul 24, 2006 1:21 pm

Nothing to worry about, that stuff will happen alot on a forum.

#46 Postby **dixiebreeze** » Mon Jul 24, 2006 1:35 pm

The little wave is starting to generate some convection this afternoon:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/float2.html

#47 Postby **bvigal** » Mon Jul 24, 2006 1:50 pm

latest from buoy 41041 - pressure 1011mb

Code: Select all

TIME   WDIR   WSPD   GST   WVHT   DPD   PRES   PTDY   ATMP   WTMP   DEWP
(GMT)   °   kts   kts   ft   sec   in   in   °F   °F   °F
1750   70   15.5   19.4   6.9   9   29.86   -0.05   80.2   80.6   77.9
1650   60   13.6   15.5   6.9   8   29.88   -0.03   80.4   80.4   78.1
1550   60   13.6   17.5   6.9   7   29.89   -0.03   80.4   80.4   78.4
1450   60   13.6   17.5   6.6   7   29.91   -0.01   78.8   80.4   77.2
1350   50   13.6   17.5   6.6   8   29.91   +0.00   79.9   80.2   77.9
1250   50   15.5   17.5   7.2   8   29.92   +0.01   79.5   80.1   77.5
1150   60   15.5   19.4   7.2   8   29.92   +0.02   79.9   80.1   77.4
1050   50   15.5   19.4   6.9   8   29.91   +0.02   79.3   80.1   77.5
0950   50   17.5   19.4   6.9   8   29.91   +0.01   79.2   80.1   77.4
0850   50   17.5   19.4   7.2   8   29.90   +0.00   79.2   80.1   76.8
0750   60   17.5   21.4   6.9   8   29.89   -0.03   78.6   80.1   77.5
0650   70   13.6   15.5   6.9   8   29.90   -0.04   78.3   80.1   77.4

#48 Postby **storms in NC** » Mon Jul 24, 2006 2:22 pm

dixiebreeze wrote:The little wave is starting to generate some convection this afternoon:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/float2.html

Didn't last long. Take a look now. It is moving at a fast rate WNW. It needs to slow down a bit

#49 Postby **hial2** » Mon Jul 24, 2006 2:40 pm

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/float2.html[/quote]

Didn't last long. Take a look now. It is moving at a fast rate WNW. It needs to slow down a bit[/quote]

It was forecast to move at a faster clip because of the strong ridge...

#50 Postby **gatorcane** » Mon Jul 24, 2006 2:48 pm

I think it feels the dust monster and is trying to run from it!!! :eek:

#51 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Mon Jul 24, 2006 2:57 pm

If you really want to get technical Boca posted about this wave a couple of days ago and I have been following up with model run round ups.

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic ... 0&start=20

#52 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Mon Jul 24, 2006 2:58 pm

And also discussing it in this thread too...

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic ... 5&start=20

#53 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Mon Jul 24, 2006 3:04 pm

CMC closes off the low there are recurves it out to sea. However I have found no other model that shows low pressure forming. I have seen gfs showing vorticity in the same area as cmc but, nothing organized.

#54 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Mon Jul 24, 2006 3:23 pm

MortisFL · #55 Postby **MortisFL** » Mon Jul 24, 2006 3:29 pm

Hey Nate, I think the CMC is hinting at development too early. This will likely enter the Caribbean and if shear stays low, might develop.

#56 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Mon Jul 24, 2006 3:30 pm

MortisFL wrote:Hey Nate, I think the CMC is hinting at development too early. This will likely enter the Caribbean and if shear stays low, might develop.

That is what the Nogaps and Ukmet are hinting at. Summay of them would be that it is just moving into the Caribbean as an disorganized wave. The GFS shows some vorticity associated with the wave moving into the bahamas then out to sea. But, not as organized as the Canadian.

ThunderMate · #57 Postby **ThunderMate** » Mon Jul 24, 2006 3:32 pm

What is making the models want to take it out to sea though?

#58 Postby **storms in NC** » Mon Jul 24, 2006 3:34 pm

With the ridge moving down from the north it will push it more to the West under the ridge. Not saying it will do any thing. Just that it has about a 50-50 chance. It could be a Chris and move in on be the 1 of Aug when Hubby flys out to Germany. That would be my luck. No vac from hubby for a week LOLOLOLOLOLOL :cheesy:

MortisFL · #59 Postby **MortisFL** » Mon Jul 24, 2006 3:35 pm

ThunderMate wrote:What is making the models want to take it out to sea though?

The ridge axis is moving to the north. Right now its under the weakness and should stay under it for awhile.

#60 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Mon Jul 24, 2006 3:35 pm

ThunderMate wrote:What is making the models want to take it out to sea though?

It looks to me that the ridge is retrograding but, then builds back westward but, both show it weakening as it moves back eastward.

Wave in Central Caribbean

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