98L invest,W.GOM,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #2

HouTXmetro · #21 Postby **HouTXmetro** » Mon Jul 24, 2006 3:36 pm

Well the plume of moisture headed towards the Texas coast looks like a classic Tropical system. Anyways, deep red is popping up near the alleged LLC just off the MX coast.

#22 Postby **Stormcenter** » Mon Jul 24, 2006 3:41 pm

HouTXmetro wrote:Well the plum of moisture headed towards the Texas coast looks like a classic Tropical system. Anyways, deep red is popping up near the alleged LLC just off the MX coast.

Yep it sure is.

#23 Postby **Steve** » Mon Jul 24, 2006 3:41 pm

Yeah. Hopefully this isn't a Tropical Storm Frances 1998 type situation. That was a whammy for New Orleans and flooded thousands of homes with some very heavy rains in 2-3 hours. I got stuck for several hours on S. Broad because I couldn't go in any other direction. That storm was off of Brownsville and just pumped feeder bands over us for 3-4 hours and piled up rainfall rates to fairly ridiculous levels.

Steve

Thunder44 · #24 Postby **Thunder44** » Mon Jul 24, 2006 3:44 pm

Stormcenter wrote:
HouTXmetro wrote:Well the plum of moisture headed towards the Texas coast looks like a classic Tropical system. Anyways, deep red is popping up near the alleged LLC just off the MX coast.

Yep it sure is.

I noticed that. The thing is the LLC could get pulled in or reform right under the convection off the coast. Then it could develop into a TC.

Stratosphere747 · #25 Postby **Stratosphere747** » Mon Jul 24, 2006 3:45 pm

Another good discussion from the Lake Charles folks.

"FINALLY, VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE AREA OF
DISTURBED WEATHER (OR TROPICAL WAVE) ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST GULF OF
MEXICO HAS MOVED INLAND NEAR TAMPICO."

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/productview.php?pil=LCHAFDLCH

Stormavoider · #26 Postby **Stormavoider** » Mon Jul 24, 2006 3:52 pm

Thunder44 wrote:
Stormcenter wrote:
HouTXmetro wrote:Well the plum of moisture headed towards the Texas coast looks like a classic Tropical system. Anyways, deep red is popping up near the alleged LLC just off the MX coast.

Yep it sure is.

I noticed that. The thing is the LLC could get pulled in or reform right under the convection off the coast. Then it could develop into a TC.

It looks like this LLC right on the coast is dissipating. My hunch is that there is one currently right around 25N 95W. I think it has been in that general area for some time. I guess time will tell.

bbadon · #27 Postby **bbadon** » Mon Jul 24, 2006 3:53 pm

it appears the low center may have tucked under the new thunderstorm complex offshore. THis could be an interesting night for this system.

Opal storm · #28 Postby **Opal storm** » Mon Jul 24, 2006 3:59 pm

I've seen tropical storms look similar to this.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/avn-l.jpg

I'm not saying it's a tropical storm,I'm just saying it has that "look".I wouldn't be too surprised to see a td or weak T.S spin up briefly before landfall,but flooding will be the biggest story whether or not it develops or not.IMO I think this is just the beginning of a LONG hurricane season for Texas.The moisture flow from the Gulf has definitely shifted more west from last season,I think Texas is going to have much bigger problems to deal with come Aug and Sept.

Thunder44 · #29 Postby **Thunder44** » Mon Jul 24, 2006 4:03 pm

Tropical Weather Outlook

Statement as of 5:30 PM EDT on July 24, 2006

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico...
Upper-level winds...in combination with a weak surface low very near
the Mexican coast between Tampico and La Pesca...continue to
generate showers and thunderstorms in the western Gulf of Mexico.
This activity has not become any better organized this afternoon.
Although upper-level winds are not currently favorable for
development...they are expected to become more favorable over the
next day or so. This system is expected to move generally
northward...and has the potential to become a tropical depression
if the surface low remains over water.

Forecaster Franklin

duris · #30 Postby **duris** » Mon Jul 24, 2006 4:03 pm

Steve wrote:Yeah. Hopefully this isn't a Tropical Storm Frances 1998 type situation. That was a whammy for New Orleans and flooded thousands of homes with some very heavy rains in 2-3 hours. I got stuck for several hours on S. Broad because I couldn't go in any other direction. That storm was off of Brownsville and just pumped feeder bands over us for 3-4 hours and piled up rainfall rates to fairly ridiculous levels.

Steve

I don't even remember that. A bad marriage at the time and Katrina must have erased it from my mind! Good news is if it were to happen this time, concrete floor and walls just being framed, so nuttin to flood Wait, except the car I just paid off last week. I better shovel out the gutter.

T-man · #31 Postby **T-man** » Mon Jul 24, 2006 4:08 pm

Texas storms are headaches for us folks here in coastal Louisiana, mainly because the wet side of the storms brush us when they come in from the east, and when they come from the BOC, water piles up down here. And it's worse than ever before, most of our barrier islands were ripped into little bitty pieces last year, we lost a heck of a lot of marsh, and most of what is left is what we call broken marsh- just bits and pieces that aren't much protection anymore. Any storm in the WGOM is problematic for us, IMO

Johnny · #32 Postby **Johnny** » Mon Jul 24, 2006 4:09 pm

I think the impacts would be pretty much the same if this develops or doesn't develop (a depression or weak tropical storm). What do y'all think?

hicksta · #33 Postby **hicksta** » Mon Jul 24, 2006 4:11 pm

Is there a possibilty that the storm may create a new llc somewhere.

southerngale · #34 Postby **southerngale** » Mon Jul 24, 2006 4:11 pm

Thunder44 wrote:Tropical Weather Outlook

Statement as of 5:30 PM EDT on July 24, 2006

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico...
Upper-level winds...in combination with a weak surface low very near
the Mexican coast between Tampico and La Pesca...continue to
generate showers and thunderstorms in the western Gulf of Mexico.
This activity has not become any better organized this afternoon.
Although upper-level winds are not currently favorable for
development...they are expected to become more favorable over the
next day or so. This system is expected to move generally
northward...and has the potential to become a tropical depression
if the surface low remains over water.

Forecaster Franklin

Huh? I thought it was inland already.

Weatherfreak000 · #35 Postby **Weatherfreak000** » Mon Jul 24, 2006 4:14 pm

A new center could always reform offshore back over water. This area still needs to be looked at.

Stratosphere747 · #36 Postby **Stratosphere747** » Mon Jul 24, 2006 4:15 pm

Kelly, there has never been a low firmly established. Hints at one, which they felt had gone ashore or close to it.....

Nothing new with such a disorganized system..

#37 Postby **Starburst** » Mon Jul 24, 2006 4:15 pm

It is not inland it is still over water per the NHC

Stormavoider · #38 Postby **Stormavoider** » Mon Jul 24, 2006 4:17 pm

Winds are up again! S at 31.1

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42002

T-man · #39 Postby **T-man** » Mon Jul 24, 2006 4:19 pm

It's been pretty blustery all day long at that buoy.

Thunder44 · #40 Postby **Thunder44** » Mon Jul 24, 2006 4:23 pm

You see in the last 2 or 3 frames on visible loop here, you see that the low clouds on the NE Mexico suddenly go in towards the thunderstorm cluster blowing up offshore.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

98L invest,W.GOM,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #2

Who is online