Glob Models have strong lows in E Atlantic,first 2 weeks,Aug

[gatorcane]

We have a general thread on the long-range GFS but a moderator said we can post about specific areas. This one peaks my interest because it is the first time this year we have seen this:

It's showing only a 1008 MB low heading towards the Leeward islands for the first weekend in August but is the first time the GFS is showing a Low originating off Africa and surviving the trip across the MDR.

We are nearly upon the start of the Cape Verde season folks

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[tgenius]

CV season didn't really exist in 05 though right?

[SouthFloridawx]

I would hope that it does not verify because that would signify the start of our cape verde season.

[gatorcane]

I would hope that it does not verify because that would signify the start of our cape verde season.

I think the GFS is basically saying it thinks the Cape Verde season will be starting the first week in August by showing the persistent low. Now lets see if successive runs continue to show it.

It may just be the first true Cape Verde system this year....

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

Gatorcane, that was the 00Z run..In the 18Z, the latest run, the low pressure area passes over Puerto Rico on the 8th...

[gatorcane]

Gatorcane, that was the 00Z run..In the 18Z, the latest run, the low pressure area passes over Puerto Rico on the 8th...

Can you send the link please? The new run is still showing the low though....

[SouthFloridawx]

Gatorcane, that was the 00Z run..In the 18Z, the latest run, the low pressure area passes over Puerto Rico on the 8th...

Either way in both runs it is showing up.

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

Gatorcane, that was the 00Z run..In the 18Z, the latest run, the low pressure area passes over Puerto Rico on the 8th...

Either way in both runs it is showing up.

Yeap! Thats what Im saying, the tendency has been consistent!

GFS 18Z http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/18/ten_s_loop.shtml

[gatorcane]

Gatorcane, that was the 00Z run..In the 18Z, the latest run, the low pressure area passes over Puerto Rico on the 8th...

Either way in both runs it is showing up.

Yeap! That what Im saying, the tendency has been consistent!

It is 384 hours out so there is some room for error....it may not show up in a couple of days.

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

Gatorcane, that was the 00Z run..In the 18Z, the latest run, the low pressure area passes over Puerto Rico on the 8th...

Either way in both runs it is showing up.

Yeap! That what Im saying, the tendency has been consistent!

It is 384 hours out so there is some room for error....it may not show up in a couple of days.

I know that...But as you said...There are signs that the Cape Verde Season is approaching..

[cycloneye]

A 1008 MB LOW IS CENTERED ALONG THE COAST OF SENEGAL NEAR 15N16W
MOVING W AT 5-10 KT. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICT LOCATION. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-16N
BETWEEN 13W-19W.

8 PM Discussion.

Will it be this one?

[ThunderMate]

is this a new system or the central atlantic wave out there right now?

[cycloneye]

is this a new system or the central atlantic wave out there right now?

Eastern Atlantic off Senegal.

[gatorcane]

But the African dust is still dominating, so when will that let up? Apparently the GFS thinks that it will let up enough by the first week of August..perhaps that is the reason why the GFS doesn't rapidly strengthen this low due to the residual African dust.

[Vortex]

The 18z GFS brings this system across the islands, Puerto Rico, and then to a position near Eastern Cuba and the southern bahamas. At the same time strong ridging is building in along the east coast from eastern canada. If this pattern verifies then the cyclone would continue w/wnw and across Cuba or Florida and into the Gulf. A potentially very interesting situation is on the horizon over the next 7-15 days.....

[gatorcane]

The 18z GFS brings this system across the islands, Puerto Rico, and then to a position near Eastern Cuba and the southern bahamas. At the same time strong ridging is building in along the east coast from eastern canada. If this pattern verifies then the cyclone would continue w/wnw and across Cuba or Florida and into the Gulf. A potentially very interesting situation is on the horizon over the next 7-15 days.....

Link please? I hope it doesn't verify

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

The 18z GFS brings this system across the islands, Puerto Rico, and then to a position near Eastern Cuba and the southern bahamas. At the same time strong ridging is building in along the east coast from eastern canada. If this pattern verifies then the cyclone would continue w/wnw and across Cuba or Florida and into the Gulf. A potentially very interesting situation is on the horizon over the next 7-15 days.....

Link please? I hope it doesn't verify

I already post it above...But here it is:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/18/ten_s_loop.shtml

[wxmann_91]

The 7-15 day GFS hardly ever verifies. I only look at it for entertainment.

[gatorcane]

The 18z GFS brings this system across the islands, Puerto Rico, and then to a position near Eastern Cuba and the southern bahamas. At the same time strong ridging is building in along the east coast from eastern canada. If this pattern verifies then the cyclone would continue w/wnw and across Cuba or Florida and into the Gulf. A potentially very interesting situation is on the horizon over the next 7-15 days.....

Link please? I hope it doesn't verify

I already post it above...But here it is:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/18/ten_s_loop.shtml[/url]

ok missed it thanks

[gatorcane]

Latest IR of the supect Low that may kick off the Cape Verde season - looking very nice tonight.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html