Is 98L our next depression?

Josephine96 · #1 Postby **Josephine96** » Mon Jul 24, 2006 8:13 pm

I heard 1 of our local mets say that 98L has a pretty good shot of being our next tropical depression?

Personally.. I hope it does because I like when it's busy. Also, any idea on if they'll send recon out tomorrow?

#2 Postby **gatorcane** » Mon Jul 24, 2006 8:14 pm

hmmmm, is there not already a topic for this?

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=87230

Josephine96 · #3 Postby **Josephine96** » Mon Jul 24, 2006 8:17 pm

It may be.. But I was asking a simple question :wink:

Not necessarily starting an incessant thread ya know.. :wink:

#4 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Jul 24, 2006 8:19 pm

John is entitled to ask a question even if it's a new thread.

#5 Postby **gatorcane** » Mon Jul 24, 2006 8:21 pm

cycloneye wrote:John is entitled to ask a question even if it's a new thread.

okay well I give it about a 20% chance 8-)

Josephine96 · #6 Postby **Josephine96** » Mon Jul 24, 2006 8:27 pm

LOL.. Thank God for no need for divine interjection lol..

I'd say about maybe 30-40 percent and probably a TD or weak TS for South Texas. {Just a hypothetical guess not a forecast} lol

#7 Postby **vbhoutex** » Mon Jul 24, 2006 8:31 pm

This thing has got to pull away from the coast in order for anything to form. It hasn't done that yet. I think if a low doesn't form further East under the convection its gosse is cooked as far as tropical development. AS stated elsewhere I think that much of TX will get mucho rain from this.

ROCK · #8 Postby **ROCK** » Mon Jul 24, 2006 8:35 pm

vbhoutex wrote:This thing has got to pull away from the coast in order for anything to form. It hasn't done that yet. I think if a low doesn't form further East under the convection its gosse is cooked as far as tropical development. AS stated elsewhere I think that much of TX will get mucho rain from this.

agreed....If a LLC can from underneith some convection to its east we could have player. Weak / sheared systems like this are always hard to pinpoint a center. Some have mulitple centers or they reform under new convection. I thought I saw a LLC being spit out earlier today into Mex.

Tonight will be the key. Personally, I am getting tired of draining my pool and cat sized mosquitos here in Pearland. :lol:

I could do without rain for awhile.

Josephine96 · #9 Postby **Josephine96** » Mon Jul 24, 2006 8:38 pm

That darn wave is buried in the BOC lol.. It needs to get a little further north away from land.. :lol:

#10 Postby **Wpwxguy** » Mon Jul 24, 2006 8:43 pm

Its not at all uncommon to see the circulation center of weak systems relocate itself to areas of better convection. I don't think it'll amount to much if this does not happen. Its got to get away from the land mass.

Josephine96 · #11 Postby **Josephine96** » Mon Jul 24, 2006 8:49 pm

Just wait and see as always :wink:

Just remember what happened in August 2004, It aint gonna be quiet soon

#12 Postby **Steve** » Mon Jul 24, 2006 8:50 pm

60/40 shot at a depression; maybe 35-45% shot at being Chris. That could go up or down. If it was gonna happen, late morning tomorrow might be a reasonable guess.

Steve

Jim Cantore · #13 Postby **Jim Cantore** » Mon Jul 24, 2006 8:53 pm

I give it a 35% chance as of now, if it holds together overnight I'll up those chances.

Extremeweatherguy · #14 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Mon Jul 24, 2006 9:09 pm

I think it has a 40% of becoming a "real" depression and a 75% chance of it becoming strong enough for the NHC to call it a depression (even though it may lack a surface low).

HouTXmetro · #15 Postby **HouTXmetro** » Mon Jul 24, 2006 9:36 pm

Hmm..like most BOC potential systems this year, a big tease

#16 Postby **Dean4Storms** » Mon Jul 24, 2006 9:41 pm

I don't see it happening, too much shear and too close to land.

Kind of like a fat lady with a wig in a gale trying to perform a ballet!

ROCK · #17 Postby **ROCK** » Mon Jul 24, 2006 9:43 pm

HouTXmetro wrote:Hmm..like most BOC potential systems this year, a big tease

I agree...I almost tend to hate BOC systems. They never really seem to get going until there smashing into Mexico.

#18 Postby **HURAKAN** » Mon Jul 24, 2006 10:21 pm

I will wait for the diurnal maximum to give you the answer!!!

Jim Cantore · #19 Postby **Jim Cantore** » Mon Jul 24, 2006 10:24 pm

Last year, this would've been a Hurricane by now :lol:

Hohwxny · #20 Postby **Hohwxny** » Mon Jul 24, 2006 10:54 pm

Hurricane Floyd wrote:Last year, this would've been a Hurricane by now

And, how do you figure that? What hurricane formed in the BOC last year? :roll:

Is 98L our next depression?

Is 98L our next depression?

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