Glob Models have strong lows in E Atlantic,first 2 weeks,Aug

#21 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Jul 24, 2006 8:01 pm

gatorcane wrote:Latest IR of the supect Low that may kick off the Cape Verde season - looking very nice tonight.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

That's the Water Vapor Image not Infared.

#22 Postby **gatorcane** » Mon Jul 24, 2006 8:02 pm

cycloneye wrote:
gatorcane wrote:Latest IR of the supect Low that may kick off the Cape Verde season - looking very nice tonight.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

That's the Water Vapor Image not Infared.

Yep, sorry, it is the water vapor loop....

Jam151 · #23 Postby **Jam151** » Mon Jul 24, 2006 8:04 pm

cycloneye wrote:A 1008 MB LOW IS CENTERED ALONG THE COAST OF SENEGAL NEAR 15N16W
MOVING W AT 5-10 KT. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICT LOCATION. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-16N
BETWEEN 13W-19W.

8 PM Discussion.

Will it be this one?

that one is like 5 days too early.

#24 Postby **gatorcane** » Mon Jul 24, 2006 8:08 pm

Jam151 wrote:
cycloneye wrote:A 1008 MB LOW IS CENTERED ALONG THE COAST OF SENEGAL NEAR 15N16W
MOVING W AT 5-10 KT. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICT LOCATION. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-16N
BETWEEN 13W-19W.

8 PM Discussion.

Will it be this one?

that one is like 5 days too early.

yeah it may be one that emerges sometime this weekend.

#25 Postby **curtadams** » Mon Jul 24, 2006 8:36 pm

gatorcane wrote:Latest IR of the supect Low that may kick off the Cape Verde season - looking very nice tonight.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

No, the suspect low moves off the African coast 18Z on the 31st. It's not visible on the EA loops yet. It ought to be over Ethopia right now if it's anywhere. I also notice the quality of the GFS sim changes immediately before the low appears - and one of the effects is that rainfall increases everywhere, suddenly. So I'm particularly suspicious of this one.

#26 Postby **Hybridstorm_November2001** » Mon Jul 24, 2006 9:33 pm

Vortex wrote:The 18z GFS brings this system across the islands, Puerto Rico, and then to a position near Eastern Cuba and the southern bahamas. At the same time strong ridging is building in along the east coast from eastern canada. If this pattern verifies then the cyclone would continue w/wnw and across Cuba or Florida and into the Gulf. A potentially very interesting situation is on the horizon over the next 7-15 days.....

Wouldn't put a huge amount of stock in this scenario, at least not yet. The models have been having a terrible time grasping the over all Weather pattern over Eastern NOAM, and the Western Atlantic the last couple of weeks, especially the last few runs. One of their main problem areas is the persistent Northeast trough, they always try to fill it, and in spite of that every week it gets reenergize to various degrees be mid-level energy (short-waves) dropping down into it's base in the NW flow aloft.

#27 Postby **gatorcane** » Mon Jul 24, 2006 9:38 pm

Hybridstorm_November2001 wrote:
Vortex wrote:The 18z GFS brings this system across the islands, Puerto Rico, and then to a position near Eastern Cuba and the southern bahamas. At the same time strong ridging is building in along the east coast from eastern canada. If this pattern verifies then the cyclone would continue w/wnw and across Cuba or Florida and into the Gulf. A potentially very interesting situation is on the horizon over the next 7-15 days.....

Wouldn't put a huge amount of stock in this scenario, at least not yet. The models have been having a terrible time grasping the over all Weather pattern over Eastern NOAM, and the Western Atlantic the last couple of weeks, especially the last few runs. One of their main problem areas is the persistent Northeast trough, they always try to fill it, and in spite of that every week it gets reenergize to various degrees be mid-level energy (short-waves) dropping down into it's base in the NW flow aloft.

Good points, we'll have to see what happens - but this is the first time I have seen the GFS keep a persistent low from near Africa all the way through the islands and now into the southern Bahamas.

Ola · #28 Postby **Ola** » Mon Jul 24, 2006 9:56 pm

curtadams wrote:
gatorcane wrote:Latest IR of the supect Low that may kick off the Cape Verde season - looking very nice tonight.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

No, the suspect low moves off the African coast 18Z on the 31st. It's not visible on the EA loops yet. It ought to be over Ethopia right now if it's anywhere. I also notice the quality of the GFS sim changes immediately before the low appears - and one of the effects is that rainfall increases everywhere, suddenly. So I'm particularly suspicious of this one.

There is a simple explanation for that. After 180 hours every gfs pic consists of 12 hours of precipitation, but before 180 hours its 6 hours of precipitation and forecasted data. That is why they look different all of a sudden. This happens in every run.

wayoutfront · #29 Postby **wayoutfront** » Mon Jul 24, 2006 10:23 pm

gatorcane wrote:But the African dust is still dominating, so when will that let up? Apparently the GFS thinks that it will let up enough by the first week of August..perhaps that is the reason why the GFS doesn't rapidly strengthen this low due to the residual African dust.

I am curious why people think the SAL will kill a wave?

#30 Postby **gatorcane** » Mon Jul 24, 2006 10:29 pm

wayoutfront wrote:
gatorcane wrote:But the African dust is still dominating, so when will that let up? Apparently the GFS thinks that it will let up enough by the first week of August..perhaps that is the reason why the GFS doesn't rapidly strengthen this low due to the residual African dust.

I am curious why people think the SAL will kill a wave?

The African Dust has killed nearly every wave with potential this year so far....no matter how good they looked in the monsoon trough off Africa....

#31 Postby **gatorcane** » Mon Jul 24, 2006 10:32 pm

The wind shear in the MDR has definitely slackened off lately and will probably continue to do so as we move into Aug. Perhaps the GFS is picking up on some lower shear where it thinks this Low will get going.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... wg8shr.GIF

HurricaneMaster_PR · #32 Postby **HurricaneMaster_PR** » Tue Jul 25, 2006 6:26 am

GFS 06Z still develops the system, this time a little bit stronger, and passes it through Puerto Rico...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/06/ten_s_loop.shtml

#33 Postby **storms in NC** » Tue Jul 25, 2006 6:38 am

looks a lot nicer this morning. It has more clouds maybe they will not get blown off like the did yesterday .

Nimbus · #34 Postby **Nimbus** » Tue Jul 25, 2006 7:42 am

Sea surface temperatures in the eastern Atlantic have been running a couple degrees lower than normal this year and the SAL has been active. The Cape Verde season usually doesn't start till mid August anyways does it?

#35 Postby **cycloneye** » Tue Jul 25, 2006 7:45 am

Nimbus wrote:Sea surface temperatures in the eastern Atlantic have been running a couple degrees lower than normal this year and the SAL has been active. The Cape Verde season usually doesn't start till mid August anyways does it?

Yes,August 15 normally marks the date that the Cape Verde Season really starts to become active.

#36 Postby **gatorcane** » Tue Jul 25, 2006 8:36 am

HurricaneMaster_PR wrote:GFS 06Z still develops the system, this time a little bit stronger, and passes it through Puerto Rico...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/06/ten_s_loop.shtml

Thanks for the updated run. We have now seen successive runs showing a low, now even stronger, I will definitely be monitoring this situation as it has been calling for it to get close to Puerto Rico, if not Puerto Rico taking a big hit - then later it is calling for it to be in the Southern Bahama islands.

#37 Postby **storms in NC** » Tue Jul 25, 2006 8:42 am

What brings to mind is the little bus. I think I can I think I can lol

#38 Postby **gatorcane** » Tue Jul 25, 2006 8:48 am

Based on the model run, looks like the low emerges sometime this weekend off Africa on July 30th, I wonder if it is the wave at about 0W and 2N over the Togo-Ghana region of central-west Africa?

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... rmet7n.GIF

#39 Postby **curtadams** » Tue Jul 25, 2006 9:20 am

gatorcane wrote:Based on the model run, looks like the low emerges sometime this weekend off Africa on July 30th, I wonder if it is the wave at about 0W and 2N over the Togo-Ghana region of central-west Africa?

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... rmet7n.GIF

More likely the one behind. In 5-6 days you'd normally see more than one wave. I think I see another wave move off first on the GFS run, too.

#40 Postby **gatorcane** » Tue Jul 25, 2006 9:21 am

curtadams wrote:
gatorcane wrote:Based on the model run, looks like the low emerges sometime this weekend off Africa on July 30th, I wonder if it is the wave at about 0W and 2N over the Togo-Ghana region of central-west Africa?

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... rmet7n.GIF

More likely the one behind. In 5-6 days you'd normally see more than one wave.

What I want to know is how the GFS can predict a Low that far out that hasn't even fully developed in Africa yet?

Glob Models have strong lows in E Atlantic,first 2 weeks,Aug

Re: 18 Z continues to depict system moving wnw through the i

Re: 18 Z continues to depict system moving wnw through the i

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