Tropical Depression Daniel (05E) in CPAC

[Derek Ortt]

its also easterly shear that weakened Daniel today. This was not expected at all. The trough is retreating, but as long as the easterly shera persists, this will not devleop, which is why I am slightly weaker than CPHC

[Cyclenall]

Hurricane Daniel looks awful in terms of convection but still has a bit of organization.

[Mike Doran]

Technical note: Atlantic Hurricanes and Portland Precipitation

Since the number of Atlantic hurricanes seems to correspond to precipitation in the Northwest, we decided to plot both types of data together to see how well they correlate. As can be seen in Figure 5, there is a very strong correlation indeed. Active hurricane years are almost always followed by wetter than average winter conditions in Portland, and inactive years by dry winters. This graph not only validates the Conveyor Belt concept, it suggest that hurricane frequency can be used effectively to predict Portland precipitation the following winter.

http://www.ocs.orst.edu/reports/wet-dry.html

Comment:

This shows indeed the ELECTRICAL teleconnections AND the carbonation issues relative to the Altantic and Pacific. Lightning storms over the CONUS will power cloud organizations in either side of the country--the question of where is a question of decarbonation.

After an active year like 2005 in the ATLANTIC, notice how Portland and the rest of the left coast is drought free:

http://www.drought.unl.edu/dm/

There is a REASON why after and active season like 2005 in the Atlantic that the EPAC is active with a storm like this, despite it being a nuetral ENSO. That reason is about carbonation and electrics.

+++++++++++

As a storm approaches the islands bands move over it and bring lightning nearby--which is a nearby displacement current to power cloud microphysics. That is why storms tend to intensify when they approach. As they move away from the land, however, they are unlikely to find organizing displacement currents and will tend to weaken.

[Hohwxny]

its also easterly shear that weakened Daniel today. This was not expected at all. The trough is retreating, but as long as the easterly shera persists, this will not devleop, which is why I am slightly weaker than CPHC

Hey Derek, do you have any idea as for how long the easterly shear will persist?

[wxmann_91]

its also easterly shear that weakened Daniel today. This was not expected at all. The trough is retreating, but as long as the easterly shera persists, this will not devleop, which is why I am slightly weaker than CPHC

Looks more southerly to me. Anyway, that is right. I am doubting that Dan will affect Hawaii as a strong TS. A weak TS seems more realistic given the horrific environment composed of dry air at the Upper and Lower levels, add that to the shear and ouch...

[Derek Ortt]

shear is definately easterly

The upper low to the SW is dropping farther SW, so its not affecting it.

Easterly shear maybe for 24 more hours. If the UL near 145 drops south, it could enhance the divergence at the upper levels in about 36H. My main concern is a Fernanda-like intensification east of the Big Island in 2-3 days time

[Derek Ortt]

Also, an interesting piece of Trivia

Fernanda was the last hurricane to have resulted in a Hurricane Warning for Hawaii. It ended up stalling and missing

[HURAKAN]

Daniel's done!

[Thunder44]

Looks like they won't have to send those planes out to Honolulu again.

[Cyclenall]

The funny thing is the CPHC had this at 55 Knots when it looked like that. Now it's down to 45 Knots. There is almost no convection at all now. If it continues this trend, there will be nothing left of Daniel.

I just watched WDIV or "Local 4 News" from Detroit and they said we have a hurricane in the pacific ocean right now heading for Hawaii! Why are they calling it a hurricane when clearly it's a TS (or nothing!)? If I had a penny for every time the news and media on TV made a mistake about the tropics, I would be rich.

[HurricaneHunter914]

If they can call this a TS when there is nothing left of it, then 98L deserves to be called a Tropical Storm.

[HURAKAN]

Derek, what is your forecast now?

[Mike Doran]

Dan went from Friday as annualar to today it's a dry swirl. Its winds dropped and its cloud tops warmed. What's interesting about this from an ELECTRICAL standpoint is that with the low pressure and the clouds there is an outgassing of carbonation that drops conductivity on the ocean surface and then the clouds themselves help feedback static field organizing dielectrics. Then the cold cloud tops help maintain a stabile ionosphere, for the capacitive coupling from above to remain highly charged.

So when this organization from the storm goes away or decreases there is a mathematical description that can be made about discharging capaciters or in this matter discharging them. What happens is the 'C' goes toward zero that voltage goes to infinity. Any then you have the charges there in front of that voltage--ready for extreme current movements--or lightning strikes.

So did this math verify????

Here in Redding we have had three days of record temperatures, including Sunday which was tied for the 6th warmest day here all time. Then in Siskyou, Trinity and Shasta counties there were reported in the Record Searchlight 1,200 lightning strikes Sunday night and through Monday 40 strike caused fires.

My swimming pool is 88 degF!

[JonathanBelles]

Dan went from Friday as annualar to today it's a dry swirl. Its winds dropped and its cloud tops warmed. What's interesting about this from an ELECTRICAL standpoint is that with the low pressure and the clouds there is an outgassing of carbonation that drops conductivity on the ocean surface and then the clouds themselves help feedback static field organizing dielectrics. Then the cold cloud tops help maintain a stabile ionosphere, for the capacitive coupling from above to remain highly charged.

So when this organization from the storm goes away or decreases there is a mathematical description that can be made about discharging capaciters or in this matter discharging them. What happens is the 'C' goes toward zero that voltage goes to infinity. Any then you have the charges there in front of that voltage--ready for extreme current movements--or lightning strikes.

So did this math verify????

Here in Redding we have had three days of record temperatures, including Sunday which was tied for the 6th warmest day here all time. Then in Siskyou, Trinity and Shasta counties there were reported in the Record Searchlight 1,200 lightning strikes Sunday night and through Monday 40 strike caused fires.

My swimming pool is 88 degF!

i have no clue what you just said

[Derek Ortt]

Big time bust by myself and CPHC with this one

An UL formed to its SW and produced easterly shear over it, causing all of the convection to dissipate

I went with a TD over the islands for continuity; however, even this is not very likely now.

Goes to show again that the models tend to be AWFUL in forecasting upper level features over the ocean due to a lack of observations

[cycloneye]

PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
3. NOTE: ALL TASKING ON DANIEL WAS CANCELLED BY CPHC
AT 25/1615Z WVW



No surprise here.

[Cyclenall]

PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
3. NOTE: ALL TASKING ON DANIEL WAS CANCELLED BY CPHC
AT 25/1615Z WVW



No surprise here.

Too bad.

[Jim Cantore]

Looks like he faired better


http://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/images/ts-daniel-20000731-0000utc-g10vis.jpg

[Cyclenall]

This is what Daniel looks like right now:



Wow, nice looking storm .

[JonathanBelles]

where is it???