98L invest,W.GOM,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #2

Thunder44 · #141 Postby **Thunder44** » Tue Jul 25, 2006 3:02 am

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:People this system has been zotted by land. The trough axis has moved about a degree from the coast. In the convection that was over the ocean is slowly moving westward. By tomarrow midday there should not be hardly anything of this system over the BOC. NO CHANCE FOR DEVELOPMENT!!!

Hopefully you won't change mind again in a few hours

#142 Postby **Starburst** » Tue Jul 25, 2006 3:20 am

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A 1009 MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR
TAMPICO DRIFTING NORTHWARD. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
COVER MUCH OF THE W GULF OF MEXICO N OF THE BAY OF CAMPECHE W OF
92W INLAND OVER MEXICO AND TO THE TEXAS COAST. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE...AND A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION COULD DEVELOP DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...IF THE LOW
PRESSURE CENTER REMAINS OFFSHORE.

Looks as if now it is drifting only to the north. This could be a potential problem

all_we_know_is_FALLING · #143 Postby **all_we_know_is_FALLING** » Tue Jul 25, 2006 3:31 am

Starburst wrote:...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A 1009 MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR
TAMPICO DRIFTING NORTHWARD. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
COVER MUCH OF THE W GULF OF MEXICO N OF THE BAY OF CAMPECHE W OF
92W INLAND OVER MEXICO AND TO THE TEXAS COAST. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE...AND A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION COULD DEVELOP DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...IF THE LOW
PRESSURE CENTER REMAINS OFFSHORE.

Looks as if now it is drifting only to the north. This could be a potential problem

Well, if they think it still has potential, then we should too.

Thunder44 · #144 Postby **Thunder44** » Tue Jul 25, 2006 3:35 am

796
WHXX01 KWBC 250635
CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL982006) ON 20060725 0600 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060725 0600 060725 1800 060726 0600 060726 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 23.5N 97.9W 24.8N 97.8W 25.8N 97.7W 26.9N 98.1W
BAMM 23.5N 97.9W 25.2N 98.1W 26.4N 98.3W 27.7N 98.5W
A98E 23.5N 97.9W 24.9N 97.7W 26.3N 97.2W 28.0N 97.0W
LBAR 23.5N 97.9W 24.8N 98.0W 26.0N 98.2W 26.7N 98.6W
SHIP 25KTS 28KTS 32KTS 35KTS
DSHP 25KTS 26KTS 26KTS 27KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060727 0600 060728 0600 060729 0600 060730 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 28.1N 99.0W 30.7N 101.9W 32.6N 103.5W 33.1N 103.7W
BAMM 28.9N 99.1W 31.7N 101.1W 34.2N 102.2W 36.0N 101.9W
A98E 29.5N 96.8W 31.7N 96.7W 33.9N 95.8W 35.5N 93.3W
LBAR 27.2N 99.2W 29.2N 101.2W 32.5N 103.2W 36.4N 101.9W
SHIP 39KTS 47KTS 49KTS 45KTS
DSHP 27KTS 27KTS 27KTS 27KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 23.5N LONCUR = 97.9W DIRCUR = 0DEG SPDCUR = 7KT
LATM12 = 21.8N LONM12 = 97.9W DIRM12 = 356DEG SPDM12 = 7KT
LATM24 = 20.9N LONM24 = 97.5W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 100NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$

#145 Postby **crazycajuncane** » Tue Jul 25, 2006 3:44 am

Something tells me this will be a Tropical Depression.... look how fast Arlene popped up.... the waters are so warm down there I think it's very possible.... by late tomorrow night we may see a tropical depression.

Local mets are saying very heavy downpours for us Today and into Wednesday.

#146 Postby **Starburst** » Tue Jul 25, 2006 4:03 am

I must agree and it looks like the convection is really starting to fire up again this early morning.

Grease Monkey · #147 Postby **Grease Monkey** » Tue Jul 25, 2006 4:07 am

Is there a reason why convection for these forming storms always tend to build up in the morning, but tend to die out during the afternoon or is this just a coincidence?

Thunder44 · #148 Postby **Thunder44** » Tue Jul 25, 2006 4:11 am

654
ABNT20 KNHC 250857
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 AM EDT TUE JUL 25 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE NORTHEAST COAST OF MEXICO
BETWEEN TAMPICO AND BROWNSVILLE IS GENERATING DISORGANIZED
SHOWERS...THUNDERSTORMS AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS IN SQUALLS OVER
PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL
AREAS. THERE IS NO WELL-DEFINED SURFACE CIRCULATION AND
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY NOT FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION. HOWEVER...AS THE SYSTEM MOVES GENERALLY NORTHWARD OVER
THE NEXT DAY OR SO ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS COULD BECOME A LITTLE
MORE FAVORABLE...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD STILL FORM IF THE
LOW REMAINS OVER WATER. REGARDLESS OF WHETHER A TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMS...THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TO
PORTIONS OF EXTREME NORTHEASTERN MEXICO AND SOUTHERN TEXAS OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

A WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED ABOUT 800 MILES EAST OF
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
MINIMAL...AND SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT
EXPECTED.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

$$

FORECASTER PASCH/LANDSEA

#149 Postby **NDG** » Tue Jul 25, 2006 4:50 am

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:People this system has been zotted by land. The trough axis has moved about a degree from the coast. In the convection that was over the ocean is slowly moving westward. By tomarrow midday there should not be hardly anything of this system over the BOC. NO CHANCE FOR DEVELOPMENT!!!

These are strong words of confidence, but convection continue to refire offshore.

rockyman · #150 Postby **rockyman** » Tue Jul 25, 2006 5:00 am

The problem with writing "no chance for development" is that 1) this is hurricane season 2) there is a low pressure system in the Gulf of Mexico 8-)

#151 Postby **Starburst** » Tue Jul 25, 2006 5:04 am

Grease Monkey wrote:Is there a reason why convection for these forming storms always tend to build up in the morning, but tend to die out during the afternoon or is this just a coincidence?

Diurnal minimum occurs in the afternoon and diurnal maximum occurs overnight. Below is a site you can get more information at.

http://tinyurl.com/njkad

#152 Postby **wxman57** » Tue Jul 25, 2006 5:43 am

As far as I can tell, there is no surface low in the western Gulf, if by that we define a closed surface low. Pressures are a little lower in the western Gulf, but winds are straight SE-SSE from the BoC to the TX coast. Here is the latest surface plot that has Mexico obs:

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/98L.gif

While it's true that upper level winds may become "more favorable in a day or so", this system will be inland into Texas tonight. There just isn't enough time left for it to develop an LLC before moving inland. Looks like just a rain event for Texas.

#153 Postby **Stormcenter** » Tue Jul 25, 2006 6:05 am

wxman57 wrote:As far as I can tell, there is no surface low in the western Gulf, if by that we define a closed surface low. Pressures are a little lower in the western Gulf, but winds are straight SE-SSE from the BoC to the TX coast. Here is the latest surface plot that has Mexico obs:

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/98L.gif

While it's true that upper level winds may become "more favorable in a day or so", this system will be inland into Texas tonight. There just isn't enough time left for it to develop an LLC before moving inland. Looks like just a rain event for Texas.

No offense wxman57 but was this the same thing that was said early yesterday morning yet this disturbance is still around in the same general area. A majority if not of all of the convection is still offshore.

Thunder44 · #154 Postby **Thunder44** » Tue Jul 25, 2006 6:14 am

The reason why most of the convection is remains offshore, is because the upper-level winds are shearing the thunderstorms away from low pressure center which is just inland. Another Low pressure or LLC may form under the convection, but there is 25kt to 35kt shear over it now, and it doesn't appear to be decreasing this morning, so it will be very hard for it too form

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8sht.html

#155 Postby **Starburst** » Tue Jul 25, 2006 6:20 am

Thunder you are the one that posted the 5:30a.m. TWO so you know it is still over water, well at least that is what I take "as long as it remains over water" to mean.

Thunder44 · #156 Postby **Thunder44** » Tue Jul 25, 2006 6:26 am

Starburst wrote:Thunder you are the one that posted the 5:30a.m. TWO so you know it is still over water, well at least that is what I take "as long as it remains over water" to mean.

It's really broad area of low pressure that is centered inland but spread throughout NE Mexico and into the gulf.

HPC Suface Analysis this morning shows the low is center over inland over Mexico http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/sfc/90fwbg.gif and the obs seem to support that too. Lowest pressures are over land.

#157 Postby **tailgater** » Tue Jul 25, 2006 6:33 am

This radar now shows the Low southwest of Brownsville, can't tell which direction it's headed yet but it's probably North. IMHO
http://www.srh.weather.gov/ridge/radar. ... O&loop=yes

#158 Postby **NDG** » Tue Jul 25, 2006 6:44 am

Thunder44 wrote:The reason why most of the convection is remains offshore, is because the upper-level winds are shearing the thunderstorms away from low pressure center which is just inland. Another Low pressure or LLC may form under the convection, but there is 25kt to 35kt shear over it now, and it doesn't appear to be decreasing this morning, so it will be very hard for it too form

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8sht.html

I don't think shear has anything to do with it, I think that because half of it still over water, diurnal max tropical convection would happen over water versus land.

HouTXmetro · #159 Postby **HouTXmetro** » Tue Jul 25, 2006 6:50 am

what happened to the front that was supposed to interact with 98L?

#160 Postby **Starburst** » Tue Jul 25, 2006 6:52 am

If I am looking at the radar right it looks like it may just skim Brownsville and I agree looks to be just barely moving north.

http://www.srh.weather.gov/ridge/radar.php?product=N0Z&rid=BRO&loop=yes

98L invest,W.GOM,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #2

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