Tropical Depression Daniel (05E) in CPAC

[JonathanBelles]

where is it???

[Cyclenall]

where is it???

It's a ghost. There is almost NO convection with Daniel but you can see a swirl that is faint.

[whereverwx]

Now that he's exposed, he doesn't look like he's moving very much.

[Hohwxny]

Now that he's exposed, he doesn't look like he's moving very much.

The 5 am. HST advisory had him stationary

[JonathanBelles]

it had him at 5 mph

[AnnularCane]

Now that he's exposed, he doesn't look like he's moving very much.

Wow. He is just...beautiful.

[cycloneye]

553
WTPA41 PHFO 252036
TCDCP1

TROPICAL STORM DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 36
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP052006
1100 AM HST TUE JUL 25 2006

THE CENTER OF DANIEL IS EASY TO LOCATE ON VISIBLE SATELLITE DATA
SINCE THERE IS A WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. A 1539
UTC QUIKSCAT PASS ALSO SHOWED THE CENTER CLEARLY. THE 1800 UTC
FIXES FROM ALL AGENCIES WERE CLOSELY CLUSTERED. DANIEL HAS MOVED
VERY LITTLE OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS.

DANIEL HAS CLEARLY WEAKENED. INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS NO ACTIVE
CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER AND THE 1539 QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWED NO
WINDS STRONGER THAN 35 KT. DVORAK FIXES AT 1800 UTC RANGED FROM 2.5
TO 3.0. WITH NO DEEP CONVECTION AND RELATIVE DRY AIR SURROUNDING
THE STORM...DANIEL SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN.

SINCE DANIEL WILL BE A SHALLOW SYSTEM FROM NOW ON...IT WILL BE
INCREASINGLY STEERED BY THE LOWER LEVEL FLOW. AN UNUSUALLY STRONG
1029 HIGH CENTERED NEAR 40N 149W IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST AND
STRENGTHEN. DANIEL SHOULD GET PICKED UP BY THE LOW LEVEL EAST
SOUTHEAST FLOW AND GRADUALLY ACCELERATE TOWARDS THE WEST NORTHWEST.
THE MODELS ALL SHOW DANIEL FOLLOWING A WEST NORTHWEST TRACK. FOR OUR
FORECAST TRACK WE HAVE COMPROMISED BETWEEN THE GFS...WHICH HAS BEEN
PERFORMING WELL OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS...AND CONSENSUS...WITH A
TRACK SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

DANIEL IS CURRENTLY OVER 25 DEGREE CELSIUS SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES...AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER 26 DEGREE CELSIUS SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES NEAR THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THE SHIPS MODEL
SHOWS DANIEL RE-INTENSIFYING OVER THE WARMER WATER AT DAYS 4 AND
5...BUT WITH NO DEEP CONVECTION REMAINING...RE-INTENSIFICATION IS
NOT LIKELY. DANIEL IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT 5
DAYS. ALTHOUGH THE CIRCULATION WILL BE WEAK...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN DANIEL AND THE STRONG HIGH TO THE NORTH WILL KEEP THE WINDS
ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE SYSTEM A BIT STRONGER THAN WOULD OTHERWISE
BE EXPECTED.

THERE WILL STILL BE A SHALLOW AREA OF VERY MOIST AIR ASSOCIATED WITH
DANIEL FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS BUT THE MODELS SHOW NO STRONG DYNAMICS
TO LIFT THE MOISTURE. THAT WILL LIMIT THE THREAT OF EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL ALONG DANIEL/S TRACK.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 25/2100Z 16.2N 142.8W 35 KT
12HR VT 26/0600Z 16.2N 143.2W 30 KT
24HR VT 26/1800Z 16.4N 144.2W 25 KT
36HR VT 27/0600Z 16.9N 146.2W 25 KT
48HR VT 27/1800Z 17.4N 149.0W 25 KT
72HR VT 28/1800Z 18.6N 154.9W 25 KT
96HR VT 29/1800Z 20.5N 161.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
120HR VT 30/1800Z 21.8N 167.4W 25 KT...DISSIPATING

$$
FORECASTER KODAMA/DONALDSON

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

WHY Daniel please come back...This makes me very sad

[AnnularCane]

WHY Daniel please come back...This makes me very sad

It happens to the best of us.

[Jim Cantore]

it had him at 5 mph

His forward motion or his wind speed?

[Epsilon_Fan]

I thought he had a chance... I'll remember him how he was, not how he is right now

[Mike Doran]

Dan is in California.

As you all know I talk about carbonation and then what the clouds do--how viscosity is impacted and what that means then to temperatures.

Interestingly, the Pacific ocean is the least saline of the major basins and therefore the signal from decarbonation--and greater recarbonation from anthro CO2 from fossil fuels, is felt most in the Pacific. At the same time with dams in Washington, off the Colorado, and in now China with Three Gorge, riperian sources of carbonation are changed in the Pacific as well. Seems to me that the documented changes particularly in Alaska are proof of this, the drunken trees in the melted permafrost, the bugs in the same trees, the fires and record heat and melting glaciers.

Meanwhile, San Jose is baking. There is that saying from Mark Twain that the coldest winter he ever spent was a summer in San Francisco, and that's the same Pacific high, but the back end of it. When San Jose is 105 deg F when it never goes above 90, you know something is strange.

Keep in mind that you can put your hand two feet over the burner in your kitchen and not get burned. You can put a fan up on one side of the room and not feel the breeze on the other end. So then to expect that there is a hurricane in the Pacific 2,500 miles plus away--that it would cause these records as it discharges, would seem unreasonable. However, the teleconnections occur the same way these typewritten words get to you--electrically they come and near the speed of light, too.

Meanwhile, there remains in the barotropical community this expectation that those remaining winds mean something. Sure, for purposes of depressurization and stirring of the oceans--and then decarbonation and a matching conductivity drop with the surface low. This does help aid some cloud microphysics toward organization. But at the same time all storms are fighting against the second law of thermodynamics, and the electrics have to bring a great deal of order to the table to overcome the tendencies to the other way.

[kevin]

Dan is in California.

As you all know I talk about carbonation and then what the clouds do--how viscosity is impacted and what that means then to temperatures.

Interestingly, the Pacific ocean is the least saline of the major basins and therefore the signal from decarbonation--and greater recarbonation from anthro CO2 from fossil fuels, is felt most in the Pacific. At the same time with dams in Washington, off the Colorado, and in now China with Three Gorge, riperian sources of carbonation are changed in the Pacific as well. Seems to me that the documented changes particularly in Alaska are proof of this, the drunken trees in the melted permafrost, the bugs in the same trees, the fires and record heat and melting glaciers.

Meanwhile, San Jose is baking. There is that saying from Mark Twain that the coldest winter he ever spent was a summer in San Francisco, and that's the same Pacific high, but the back end of it. When San Jose is 105 deg F when it never goes above 90, you know something is strange.

Keep in mind that you can put your hand two feet over the burner in your kitchen and not get burned. You can put a fan up on one side of the room and not feel the breeze on the other end. So then to expect that there is a hurricane in the Pacific 2,500 miles plus away--that it would cause these records as it discharges, would seem unreasonable. However, the teleconnections occur the same way these typewritten words get to you--electrically they come and near the speed of light, too.

Meanwhile, there remains in the barotropical community this expectation that those remaining winds mean something. Sure, for purposes of depressurization and stirring of the oceans--and then decarbonation and a matching conductivity drop with the surface low. This does help aid some cloud microphysics toward organization. But at the same time all storms are fighting against the second law of thermodynamics, and the electrics have to bring a great deal of order to the table to overcome the tendencies to the other way.

lol good one! Continue to baffle them with *insert colloquialism*. Hope to see more pseudoscientific jokes later in the season.

[Mike Doran]

Kevin,

A capaciter is a way that charges are STORED. At the same time the capacitive coupling between ionosphere and ocean changes cloud microphysics--so there is some energy loss. But at the end its about a storage of charges. When the charges are gone as the capacitive organization goes, so goes the storm's ability to re-organize. That organization came largely from strikes along the Mexican coast, and somewhat from the CONUS. Now the storm is a long way from there--it will not re-organize. And so I explain electrics to get to the relevancy of the question of the mechanics of intensity.

You can make jokes--but that is a sign of profound insecurity. I would rather teach than insult. The barotropical community has taught me a lot, and my father, a meteorologist, is writing a paper with me. Later in the season much of the paper will be on our website, and I think most of the jokes will be about the difficulty of this complex material.

[kevin]

Methane Mike? I wish you the best with your paper and getting it published. Unfortunately I cannot separate your thoughts from pseudoscience when they appear to be vaguely linked words and phrases aimed at confusion. When you can show falsifiable predictions and replicable results I'll definetely pay attention.

[Derek Ortt]

Mike, you should be submitting the paper to JAS, MWR, or QJR, not just putting it ona website.

Also, can we please stop posting high bandwitdh images on these forums. Some of us, myself included while at home are on dial-up and it takes 17,500 decades for posts to load. A link will suffice just as well, and does not use up the resources of others

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION DANIEL (EP052006) ON 20060726 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060726 0000 060726 1200 060727 0000 060727 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 16.2N 142.9W 16.5N 143.6W 16.8N 144.4W 17.1N 145.4W
BAMM 16.2N 142.9W 16.7N 143.6W 17.2N 144.5W 17.8N 145.9W
LBAR 16.2N 142.9W 16.0N 143.1W 16.2N 143.8W 16.8N 145.0W
SHIP 30KTS 24KTS 23KTS 22KTS
DSHP 30KTS 24KTS 23KTS 22KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060728 0000 060729 0000 060730 0000 060731 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 17.5N 146.8W 18.9N 151.0W 19.2N 156.9W 17.5N 163.1W
BAMM 18.7N 147.9W 21.2N 153.3W 23.5N 159.3W 23.9N 164.8W
LBAR 17.7N 146.5W 19.8N 150.5W 21.2N 154.5W 20.4N 158.1W
SHIP 21KTS 25KTS 34KTS 37KTS
DSHP 21KTS 25KTS 34KTS 37KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 16.2N LONCUR = 142.9W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 2KT
LATM12 = 16.2N LONM12 = 142.4W DIRM12 = 270DEG SPDM12 = 1KT
LATM24 = 16.2N LONM24 = 141.8W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 20NM WNDM12 = 45KT
CENPRS = 1006MB OUTPRS = 1009MB OUTRAD = 180NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM


Almost stationary and downgraded to TD at this 00:00z model run.

[Cyclenall]

Also, can we please stop posting high bandwitdh images on these forums. Some of us, myself included while at home are on dial-up and it takes 17,500 decades for posts to load. A link will suffice just as well, and does not use up the resources of others

Why are you using Dial-up at home? It would take forever to look at anything like loops of tropical cyclones and such.

[Brent]

Also, can we please stop posting high bandwitdh images on these forums. Some of us, myself included while at home are on dial-up and it takes 17,500 decades for posts to load. A link will suffice just as well, and does not use up the resources of others

Dial-up???!!!

[westchesterweather]

Also, can we please stop posting high bandwitdh images on these forums. Some of us, myself included while at home are on dial-up and it takes 17,500 decades for posts to load. A link will suffice just as well, and does not use up the resources of others

Dial-up???!!!

What kind of ancient telecommunications device is that?