98L invest,W.GOM,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #3

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Post Reply
Message
Author
User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 148496
Age: 69
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

#61 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jul 25, 2006 8:05 pm

Floater

:uarrow: :uarrow:
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
teal61
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 134
Joined: Fri Jun 06, 2003 9:20 pm
Location: Spring, TX

#62 Postby teal61 » Tue Jul 25, 2006 8:06 pm

Should be a more interesting TWO at 10:30 tonight.
0 likes   
Top
Rainband

#63 Postby Rainband » Tue Jul 25, 2006 8:08 pm

It's not organized at all. I don't get what you guys see??
0 likes   
Top
Matt-hurricanewatcher

#64 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Tue Jul 25, 2006 8:08 pm

I'v have wondered at times when there is 2 or 3 strong LLC. Then why is there not there own cyclone. Each tropical cyclone needs a closed LLC with winds of 25 to 30 knots. If each one made the requirments for being a cyclone should they each get named or numbered?
0 likes   
Top
Stormcenter
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6685
Joined: Wed Sep 03, 2003 11:27 am
Location: Houston, TX

#65 Postby Stormcenter » Tue Jul 25, 2006 8:11 pm

Four centers.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-vis.html
0 likes   
Top
kjun
Tropical Low
Tropical Low
Posts: 27
Joined: Sat Jul 01, 2006 5:33 pm

#66 Postby kjun » Tue Jul 25, 2006 8:12 pm

Looking at the last visibles before sunset over the GOM, one could think that this is a strong TS. The NHC may have to look at this one a little closer on the 10:30!!
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
jasons2k
Storm2k Executive
Storm2k Executive
Posts: 8250
Age: 52
Joined: Wed Jul 06, 2005 12:32 pm
Location: The Woodlands, TX

#67 Postby jasons2k » Tue Jul 25, 2006 8:12 pm

Well, they are saying on the radio show right now it looks very impressive, esp. on the east/ne side for something not yet a cyclone. Zack just said some people may be "shocked" just by seeing this thing and not know it's not a named system.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
swimaster20
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 285
Joined: Tue Nov 23, 2004 2:41 pm
Location: The Heart of Cajun Country

#68 Postby swimaster20 » Tue Jul 25, 2006 8:13 pm

kjun wrote:Looking at the last visibles before sunset over the GOM, one could think that this is a strong TS. The NHC may have to look at this one a little closer on the 10:30!!


The thing is it could look wonderful on satellite, but if it doesn't have a LLC (as in this case), it isn't a tropical cyclone.
0 likes   
Top
Matt-hurricanewatcher

#69 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Tue Jul 25, 2006 8:14 pm

Its better to look at the texas obs to see if a LLC is developing. Cp ob shows southeastly winds as of a hour ago. If that turns then a system maybe forming over the water. On satellite it appears to be doing so but its likely to be mid level.
0 likes   
Top
JonathanBelles
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 11430
Age: 35
Joined: Sat Dec 24, 2005 9:00 pm
Location: School: Florida State University (Tallahassee, FL) Home: St. Petersburg, Florida
Contact:
Contact JonathanBelles

#70 Postby JonathanBelles » Tue Jul 25, 2006 8:14 pm

please label the a map because i do not see 4 centers
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Rieyeuxs
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 189
Joined: Mon Apr 26, 2004 8:52 pm
Location: Birmingham, AL

#71 Postby Rieyeuxs » Tue Jul 25, 2006 8:14 pm

Ok. I'm now officially confused. 98 was an invest, then it moved over land and wasn't an invest, and now it's an invest again. My question is that the wording from the NHC hasn't changed much at all. Yes it's a low pressure center. Yes it's over land. And no, the NHC doesn't think it's going to develop (despite what others on the board may or may not think.)

Is the NHC the center that officially declares invests, or is it the Navy since they only show up on their site and not on the NHC? I'm still confused as to the criteria that is used to declare an official invest. Not to mention if the NHC doesn't think it's going to develop, why cancel, then restate the invest. What changed during that time period from an official forecast point of view?
0 likes   
Top
Stratosphere747
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3772
Joined: Thu Sep 11, 2003 8:34 pm
Location: Surfside Beach/Freeport Tx
Contact:
Contact Stratosphere747

#72 Postby Stratosphere747 » Tue Jul 25, 2006 8:14 pm

Rainband wrote:It's not organized at all. I don't get what you guys see??


It's evolving....;)

What I find interesting about tonight, is that the history over the last 3/4 days of this system has shown that the convection has considerably died down during this time of night.

Seems quite the opposite tonight.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
mvtrucking
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 698
Age: 67
Joined: Sat Jul 09, 2005 10:01 am
Location: Monroe,La

#73 Postby mvtrucking » Tue Jul 25, 2006 8:15 pm

Stormavoider wrote:
jschlitz wrote:I will have to say on satellite one of the most impressive named storms I've seen. It has good outflow presentation, esp. to the east.


I agree. I think this system is extremely unique. Instead of one center it is one big pot of tropical gumbo. Looking at the 00:15 visible frame, there are four tropical systems budding. Has anyone seen anything quite like this before?


Could a LLC form in one of those areas further east?
0 likes   
Top
Matt-hurricanewatcher

#74 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Tue Jul 25, 2006 8:16 pm

Also I believe in the 1800s a system formed about where this is in become a hurricane. I will see if I can find it.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Ivanhater
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 11165
Age: 38
Joined: Fri Jul 01, 2005 8:25 am
Location: Pensacola

#75 Postby Ivanhater » Tue Jul 25, 2006 8:16 pm

Rainband wrote:It's not organized at all. I don't get what you guys see??


Not so sure, we have an explosion of thunderstorms very close to the coast and whenever we have thunderstorms on the increase in a consolidated area they tend to lower the pressure and "tighten" up any weak low there may be, but with it being so close to land the race is coming to an end , but it may be trying to sprint to the finish line so to speak.
0 likes   
Michael
Top
User avatar
Nimbus
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5444
Joined: Mon Jul 19, 2004 10:54 am

#76 Postby Nimbus » Tue Jul 25, 2006 8:17 pm

Winds are still out of the SSE at Brownsville?
0 likes   
Top
Stormavoider
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 671
Joined: Sat Jul 01, 2006 4:37 pm
Location: Spring Hill Fl.

#77 Postby Stormavoider » Tue Jul 25, 2006 8:18 pm

Stormavoider wrote:
jschlitz wrote:I will have to say on satellite one of the most impressive named storms I've seen. It has good outflow presentation, esp. to the east.


I agree. I think this system is extremely unique. Instead of one center it is one big pot of tropical gumbo. Looking at the 00:15 visible frame, there are four tropical systems budding. Has anyone seen anything quite like this before?
0 likes   
Top
Kennethb
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 506
Joined: Thu Aug 14, 2003 7:15 am
Location: Baton Rouge

#78 Postby Kennethb » Tue Jul 25, 2006 8:19 pm

Nimbus wrote:Winds are still out of the SSE at Brownsville?


I concur. Just a strong MLC. There are no N or W winds found along the Texas coast.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
teal61
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 134
Joined: Fri Jun 06, 2003 9:20 pm
Location: Spring, TX

#79 Postby teal61 » Tue Jul 25, 2006 8:21 pm

Ivanhater wrote:
Rainband wrote:It's not organized at all. I don't get what you guys see??


Not so sure, we have an explosion of thunderstorms very close to the coast and whenever we have thunderstorms on the increase in a consolidated area they tend to lower the pressure and "tighten" up any weak low there may be, but with it being so close to land the race is coming to an end , but it may be trying to sprint to the finish line so to speak.


Not sure it's sprinting anywhere right now " that "MLC" or whatever it is has been near that same area most of the day.

Buoy 42020 just came in for 7:50pm and the pressure remained the same at 1009.6, will be interesting to see if it starts to rise now.
Last edited by teal61 on Tue Jul 25, 2006 8:22 pm, edited 2 times in total.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
T-man
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 240
Joined: Mon Jul 04, 2005 10:57 am
Location: Lafitte, LA

#80 Postby T-man » Tue Jul 25, 2006 8:21 pm

If it were ten years ago, the NWS would have forcast "a strong tropical wave with numerous thunderstorms will envelope the forecast area for most of this week, with rain totals reaching 5 -7 inches'
0 likes   
Top
Post Reply

Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Team Ghost and 45 guests