98L invest,W.GOM,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #3

[ROCK]

I know this has been brought up but looking at this mess right now I have seen a lot uglier systems be classified as a depression. I mean, if I didn't even know any specifics and turned on the sat view, I would say we have a depression or weak TS right now.
This system reminds me of Ivan II when its center reformed closer to the LA coast. I would even venture to say this has more T-storms with it than Ivan II had.


Just keeping hope alive....

[teal61]

http://lighthouse.tamucc.edu/overview/009

North wind?

Interesting.

Not interesting at all.

Check it again, hit enter before completeing the post.

Check the post above yours.

Umm.. if you will look closer, it's not the same station that Strat posted. I doubt the accuracy of the pressure reading though. And the ob is over 2 hours old.

http://lighthouse.tamucc.edu/overview/003

[NDG]

I still don't see a closed LLC, still appears to be broad at best.

[Air Force Met]

http://lighthouse.tamucc.edu/overview/009

North wind?

Interesting.

Not interesting at all.

Check it again, hit enter before completeing the post.

I doubt that pressure very seriously...matter of fact...if I was doing analysis and had that station plot...I would thow it out. It does not match ANY data around it...and there is plenty of other data around it that is to the contrary. It probably needs to be calibrated upwards a couple of mb's.

As far as the winds are concerned...looks like a windshift due to an outflow boundry. You had a wind shift of ~70 degrees in an hour.

[george_r_1961]

Just my 2 cents here..there is still a SMALL chance of a TD forming..IF we get an LLC forming offshore. Folks in TX/LA need for focus on high rainfall amounts rather than worry about whether ot not this turns into a tropical cyclone. This could be a dangerous situation regardless of whether it develops.

[KatDaddy]

Hey AFM! We will have some tropical rains. All this talk about the LLC which does not exist over the GOM.....when will it ever end? Sorry for the sacrasm but we have no LLC everyone. Wxman57 has been telling us all day but many refuse to listen.

[tailgater]

http://lighthouse.tamucc.edu/overview/009

North wind?

This one is a little more interesting.

http://lighthouse.tamucc.edu/overview/003

Observation is over 2 hours old though but it had a NW wind and a pressure of 1006mb if accurate.

yes very interesting if correct 29.73 would be the lowest pressure around

[HurricaneHunter914]

I can't beleive that the NHC isn't sending recon out to 98L. If they did maybe we would find out more about whether this has an LLC or not.

[george_r_1961]

I can't beleive that the NHC isn't sending recon out to 98L. If they did maybe we would find out more about whether this has an LLC or not.

No need for recon. The pros say no llc and thats good enough for me. All i see is an mlc that MAY spin down to the surface.

[Air Force Met]

AFM...

While we have learned not to look at radar for a closed low to begin forming.

Does this constant area of Tstorm activity that has basically sat for the last two hours between Corpus and Brownsville give any reason to be suspicious?

Seems as if the energy has slowed down?

It will give you the place to watch the sfc pressures...especially if there is a mid level spin. As Derek pointed out today, there has been some research done (it was submitted to the AMS last year in Feb) on the importance mid level vorticity plays in tropical cyclogenesis.

What has me a little concerned...especially as far as a core rain event for tonight is concerned...is that the area of precip is so well developed during the diurnal min...I can't imagine what it will look like come 4 am when we hit the diurnal max.

Especially given the models insistance that some good mid-level vorticity is supposed to set up over the coastal bend/SETX area around sunrise.

We could have a real problem on our hands come 8 am in the Houston/GLS area if this core rain event sets up.

[Stormavoider]

I can't beleive that the NHC isn't sending recon out to 98L. If they did maybe we would find out more about whether this has an LLC or not.

They would have to buzz the entire western gulf to make all of us happy.

[NDG]

I can't beleive that the NHC isn't sending recon out to 98L. If they did maybe we would find out more about whether this has an LLC or not.

I don't think is necessary at this time since it is so close to land radar, buoys and land observations.

[Air Force Met]

I can't beleive that the NHC isn't sending recon out to 98L. If they did maybe we would find out more about whether this has an LLC or not.

It does NOT have an LLC at this time (or at any other time today). You can take that check to the bank and cash it...


and it will not bounce.

A flight would have been a waste of money.

[westchesterweather]

I can't beleive that the NHC isn't sending recon out to 98L. If they did maybe we would find out more about whether this has an LLC or not.

Recon costs a pretty penny, and without a LLC, there really is no need. There are obs around the area where they can get readings and assume for areas where there are no obs available.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

If this thing was 2 degrees to the east things would be different. Buts its not...So I say we just have to watch for the MLC to spin down. But overall the system looks good and wet for texas.

[Air Force Met]

I can't beleive that the NHC isn't sending recon out to 98L. If they did maybe we would find out more about whether this has an LLC or not.

Recon costs a pretty penny, and without a LLC, there really is no need. There are obs around the area where they can get readings and assume for areas where there are no obs available.

And that is the point. There are plenty of buoys around. Lots of oil rigs. If some of those rigs/buoys (and many of those that the public has no access to...so they don't see all the data) had shown light/vrb winds and pressures around 1008mb...they would have sent a plane.

All the data showed relatively strong SSE-SE winds...which means NO LLC. You cannot have a LLC located within a strong pressure SE gradient on one side and a strong SE pressure gradient on the other side. Can't happen. NHC knows this...hence the reason there was no flight.

The western GOM is saturated with obs. This isn't the southern Gulf.

[teal61]

Hey AFM! We will have some tropical rains. All this talk about the LLC which does not exist over the GOM.....when will it ever end? Sorry for the sacrasm but we have no LLC everyone. Wxman57 has been telling us all day but many refuse to listen.

With all due respect Kat, this is why most of us are here. I don't see a low level center yet, but I do see a mlc and most of the pro's would acknowlege that. How many of these systems have you seen just hang around and finally develop ? In the end it probably will not matter whether it spins down to the surface or not , the result is gonna be the same..lots of rain for somebody.

As far as 57 goes, he's been very negative about this system for the last couple of days. But it's still around...

[westchesterweather]

Hey AFM! We will have some tropical rains. All this talk about the LLC which does not exist over the GOM.....when will it ever end? Sorry for the sacrasm but we have no LLC everyone. Wxman57 has been telling us all day but many refuse to listen.

With all due respect Kat, this is why most of us are here. I don't see a low level center yet, but I do see a mlc and most of the pro's would acknowlege that. How many of these systems have you seen just hang around and finally develop ? In the end it probably will not matter whether it spins down to the surface or not , the result is gonna be the same..lots of rain for somebody.

As far as 57 goes, he's been very negative about this system for the last couple of days. But it's still around...

Maybe he is being negative about it because there is no LLC??? And, can you show me where being negative about this system has gotten him into trouble wrt forecasting?

[Noles2006]

Hey AFM! We will have some tropical rains. All this talk about the LLC which does not exist over the GOM.....when will it ever end? Sorry for the sacrasm but we have no LLC everyone. Wxman57 has been telling us all day but many refuse to listen.

With all due respect Kat, this is why most of us are here. I don't see a low level center yet, but I do see a mlc and most of the pro's would acknowlege that. How many of these systems have you seen just hang around and finally develop ? In the end it probably will not matter whether it spins down to the surface or not , the result is gonna be the same..lots of rain for somebody.

As far as 57 goes, he's been very negative about this system for the last couple of days. But it's still around...

Yes, he's said that he doesn't think development will occur with this system for the last couple of days... and.. you know what... HE'S BEEN RIGHT. Back off of 57, please.

[Yankeegirl]

I am just glad to be seeing some rain here!!! Weather or not there is a LLC or any type of circulation, the Gulf coast is definately going to get a good soakin'... I think we can all agree on that....