98L invest,W.GOM,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #3

[Javlin]

Tomorrow will be decisive for 98L. TD #3, Chris, or nothing, tomorrow we will have the answer.

Pretty bold prediction. Are you really sure about that?

I am thinking TD3 myself.We have I guess would be a mild TUTT to the SE enhancing outflow in the SW quad,not much shear and the rustling of new convection.Might happen.

[HurricaneHunter914]

By tomorrow afternoon this should make "landfall" so time is running out for a possible TD #3 or TS Chris.

[Swimdude]

Ok. Has anyone else in the Houston area noticed that we're not getting ANY rain from this besides the occasional drizzle? [I'm in West Houston.] In fact, when the sun set, it was sunny. Yet the forecast keeps saying 100% chance of rain. I'm suspicious.

[wxman57]

...As far as 57 goes, he's been very negative about this system for the last couple of days. But it's still around...

I'll have to agree with Teal on this one, 57 told you guys two days ago that this system was going to be dead by now, because he has been forecasting the whole system to move ashore into MX then and into TX now for the two whole days now, and it hasn't, the whole system has been basically moving parallel to the western GOM coastline, I respect 57's forecast's opinion but this system has not acted along his thinking. Of course there is no LLC yet or maybe never with this system, but some people can not help their excitement just on the possibilities.

Actually, the low pressure center did move inland yesterday, it's been moving up the coast of Mexico and it's still inland. All this discussion has been about an area of disorganized thunderstorms in a high-shear environment. Nothing to get really excited about except for the rain potential in Texas.

The 10pm NHC outlook pretty much says they're not going to call it a TD unless something drastic happens very fast. Anything down near Baffin Bay (MLC, perhaps) is progged to be west of Victoria by sunrise. That may be a bit fast, but steering currents should have it well inland before sunrise, anyway. There's very little chance the NHC would put out an advisory in the middle of the night when everyone is asleep.

When the 2006 season ends, this will be another forgotten disturbance that never was anything more.

Now I do have a good reason to be very cautious in calling for development of any tropical system as I'm working on a very expensive project in south Texas that's quite weather-sensitive. How expensive? Well, Bill Gates could probably buy it, but not many others.

Well, time for bed. Been looking at this thing since 5:30 this morning. Good night, all.

[Stormavoider]

Hey AFM! We will have some tropical rains. All this talk about the LLC which does not exist over the GOM.....when will it ever end? Sorry for the sacrasm but we have no LLC everyone. Wxman57 has been telling us all day but many refuse to listen.

With all due respect Kat, this is why most of us are here. I don't see a low level center yet, but I do see a mlc and most of the pro's would acknowlege that. How many of these systems have you seen just hang around and finally develop ? In the end it probably will not matter whether it spins down to the surface or not , the result is gonna be the same..lots of rain for somebody.

As far as 57 goes, he's been very negative about this system for the last couple of days. But it's still around...

I'll have to agree with Teal on this one, 57 told you guys two days ago that this system was going to be dead by now, because he has been forecasting the whole system to move ashore into MX then and into TX now for the two whole days now, and it hasn't, the whole system has been basically moving parallel to the western GOM coastline, I respect 57's forecast's opinion but this system has not acted along his thinking. Of course there is no LLC yet or maybe never with this system, but some people can not help their excitement just on the possibilities.

I'm a newby here. I have posted questions both within threads and as new topics. Most of the thought-out and detailed explanations returned have been from Wxman57. I appreciate them.

[wxman57]

Ok. Has anyone else in the Houston area noticed that we're not getting ANY rain from this besides the occasional drizzle? [I'm in West Houston.] In fact, when the sun set, it was sunny. Yet the forecast keeps saying 100% chance of rain. I'm suspicious.

Beware tomorrow morning. It's quite common for the squalls to redevelop offshore at night and move inland near sunrise. And with the low/MLC moving inland to our west tomorrow, we'll see training echoes along the mid and upper coast. That's when the heavy rain threat is, not tonight. Tomorrow and tomorrow night.

[all_we_know_is_FALLING]

After all they are "The Hurricane Authority."

Nuh-uh! That's The Weather Channel!

[HurricaneHunter914]

...As far as 57 goes, he's been very negative about this system for the last couple of days. But it's still around...

I'll have to agree with Teal on this one, 57 told you guys two days ago that this system was going to be dead by now, because he has been forecasting the whole system to move ashore into MX then and into TX now for the two whole days now, and it hasn't, the whole system has been basically moving parallel to the western GOM coastline, I respect 57's forecast's opinion but this system has not acted along his thinking. Of course there is no LLC yet or maybe never with this system, but some people can not help their excitement just on the possibilities.

Actually, the low pressure center did move inland yesterday, it's been moving up the coast of Mexico and it's still inland. All this discussion has been about an area of disorganized thunderstorms in a high-shear environment. Nothing to get really excited about except for the rain potential in Texas.

The 10pm NHC outlook pretty much says they're not going to call it a TD unless something drastic happens very fast. Anything down near Baffin Bay (MLC, perhaps) is progged to be west of Victoria by sunrise. That may be a bit fast, but steering currents should have it well inland before sunrise, anyway. There's very little chance the NHC would put out an advisory in the middle of the night when everyone is asleep.

When the 2006 season ends, this will be another forgotten disturbance that never was anything more.

Now I do have a good reason to be very cautious in calling for development of any tropical system as I'm working on a very expensive project in south Texas that's quite weather-sensitive. How expensive? Well, Bill Gates could probably buy it, but not many others.

Well, time for bed. Been looking at this thing since 5:30 this morning. Good night, all.

57, I think you should be ready to eat crow if this does become TD #3.

[wxman57]

I'm a newby here. I have posted questions both within threads and as new topics. Most of the thought-out and detailed explanations returned have been from Wxman57. I appreciate them.

Thanks, Stormavoider. I really do try to be non-biased one way or the other and just examine the facts. But there are a lot of excited hurricane nuts here that just can't wait for the next storm (I was one, once). I know how it is.

[wxman57]

57, I think you should be ready to eat crow if this does become TD #3.

Don't have much of a taste for crow. You can have it!

Just in case, though, I'll be sleeping with one eye open and a radar/satellite running.

[HurricaneHunter914]

I prefer chicken.

[eyesurvivor]

We've got a pretty good squall coming through right now.

[Yankeegirl]

Swimdude, I did notice the lack of rain here, but its a tropical system, so I expect the rain to start again after midnight, when I am alsleep....

[GalvestonDuck]

Ok. Has anyone else in the Houston area noticed that we're not getting ANY rain from this besides the occasional drizzle? [I'm in West Houston.] In fact, when the sun set, it was sunny. Yet the forecast keeps saying 100% chance of rain. I'm suspicious.

Beware tomorrow morning. It's quite common for the squalls to redevelop offshore at night and move inland near sunrise. And with the low/MLC moving inland to our west tomorrow, we'll see training echoes along the mid and upper coast. That's when the heavy rain threat is, not tonight. Tomorrow and tomorrow night.

Yup, like I mentioned earlier, SD, it just kept dissipating from the radar when it got to the island. Saw plenty of activity to the west, north, and east, but little here.

However, the sky just opened up for a brief but heavy downpour just a couple of minutes ago and the radar looks nasty again. I'll probably wake up during a few torrential showers in the early morning hours.

...And I'll probably have to swim to work.

[boca]

I don't get why the NWS in Houston has your rain chances down to 30% tomorrrow night makes no sense since the area is generally moving NNW and slowly at that.

[Yankeegirl]

Still nuttin here.... Its all good it ,will come in time....

[HurricaneHunter914]

You surfers should be getting some good waves tomorrow and good luck to TX and LA, hopefully you won't have to learn how to swim after this system leaves.

[NDG]

57, sorry but you have been eating crow since you posted this just two days ago, no hard feelings though, like I say I do respect your opinion, you are just human just like any other Wxman, forecasts come true sometime, other times it doesn't :


Posted: Sun Jul 23, 2006 9:34 am Post subject:

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Currently, looks like outflow from Emilia is causing shear across 98L. Low to mid-level steering should take 98L inland into Mexico around 23-24N tomorrow night. If it does spin up, it may do so only briefly before it moves ashore, like Bret and Gert of 2005. Doesn't look like it'll affect Texas. I sure hope this doesn't become "Chris". Chris is always a sheared TS.

[Yankeegirl]

It looks like the doppler has the rain going north and then making a left hand turn... Go figure...

[Stormavoider]

I'm a newby here. I have posted questions both within threads and as new topics. Most of the thought-out and detailed explanations returned have been from Wxman57. I appreciate them.

Thanks, Stormavoider. I really do try to be non-biased one way or the other and just examine the facts. But there are a lot of excited hurricane nuts here that just can't wait for the next storm (I was one, once). I know how it is.

I have always watched the sat images and any other indicators to know when to tell my buds not to come down and fish offshore. Since finding this site I am starting understand how I have blown it thinking a swirl moving my way is sure to be a "weekend killer" when turns out to be a perfect weekend. The awesome thing about this site is the participation of the many experts like Wxman57 on-board here.